Hernandez benefits?
 

I keep reading and hearing different "fantasy football" takes about how Aaron Hernandez benefits big in NE from the Moss trade because he will get more "touches"

Hernandez is a rookie 4th round draft pick - the youngest player in the entire NFL - and he's been targeted 20 times this year with 18 receptions.

He's basically in a lot of 1-on-1 in space against linebackers. Here's the type of fierce coverage he's seen this year ...

* His biggest play of the year:



He's supposed to be covered 1-on-1 by the linebacker with the Ray Maliluga somoan haircut. Moss is doubled with a corner to his outside and a deep safety he's attacking in the middle of the field. No one is within 35 yards of Hernandez.

* He makes the tough catch:



* He turns up field with nothing but green acres in front of him:




* Here's a play which shows the more typical type of coverage he's seen all year long:



1-on-1 in huge space against a middle linebacker. Middle linebackers can stuff the run, they can blitz, they can play zone coverage well, they can't cover for sh!t in 1-on-1 in open space against vastly superior athletes.

Been wondering where you have been.

Here are the targets and catches for the guys who worked underneath in the New England Moss spread offense this year:

That's 67-for-82 (81.8% completions) 6 TD's 0 INT's

That's all because of the coverage Moss attracts and his ability to attack the safety and stretch the field.

* Here's one of Welker's two touchdowns:



It's 3-on-2 in favor of New England .. Moss is on the opposite side.

The Bengals did this a few times to Welker's side. So, NE puts it's two best blocking tight ends (Gronkowski and Crumpler) out with Welker.



* Brady makes a quick pass. The big tight ends get a seal on the inside - a seal on the outside - and there's a huge alley for Welker to run through into the endzone before a wildly out of position linebacker can sprint over.

Here's what New England gains from the Moss trade:

* They can finally find out who can play and who can't. Wes Welker's in the last year of his contract - and he's making less money than the place kicker this year. He's going to want to get paid next year. NE will see what he can do without Moss opening up the middle.

* All of these young recievers they drafted - Tate hasn't got a lot of chances, Edellman can't get on the field, the 3rd round draft pick WR they took last year has been a healthy inactive every game .. they all get to play now.

* New England has two 1st rounders, two 2nd rounders, two 3rd rounders, and two 4th rounders in next years draft. Four of those eight picks now become higher picks because they're going to lose a lot more games this year.

If you're talking about the Pats team 6 years from now .. brilliant move. If you're talking about the 2010 Pats.. horrid move.

Betting horses -- you knew I'd be back on Monday.

We thought we would be spared, due to the bye week. I guess we were wrong.

And how was the weekend? Profitable I hope.

Saturday was anyway.

Jets win tonight Doug?

DrugS has become the NFL's version of Bobby Fischer.

I highly doubt that Drugs have ever bet and won a game in the NFL while still managing to lose money on the bet.