Derby Trail Forums - Ayr we there yet?

Good luck to Rileyskeepingfaith.

Saturday September 18 2010
Ayr 15:20

William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (heritage Handicap)
£150000.00 added, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 2, £93465.00 penalty
27 runners
Going: Good
Surface: Turf
No. Form Horse Age Wt Trainer Jockey OR NagMe Bet

1 (7) 001900 Barney McGrew (IRE) 14 7 9-10 M Dods D Swift (5) 105 SP SP
50/1
2 (9) 1-13020 Kaldoun Kingdom (IRE) 49 5 9-10 R A Fahey Adam Beschizza (5) 105 SP SP
33/1
3 (21) 747001 Evens And Odds (IRE) 49 6 9-9 D Nicholls Billy Cray (5) 104 SP SP
16/1
4 (25) 602212 Jonny Mudball 49 4 9-9 t Tom Dascombe S Sanders 104 SP SP
7/1
5 (18) 174021 Tajneed (IRE) 28 7 9-9 D Nicholls M Geran (3) 104 SP SP
25/1
6 (11) 3-46103 Genki (IRE) 14 6 9-8 v R Charlton S Drowne 103 SP SP
12/1
7 (10) 003100 Castles In The Air 29 5 9-8 R A Fahey B McHugh (3) 103 SP SP
40/1
8 (14) 15-9400 Jimmy Styles 49 6 9-8 b C G Cox A Kirby 103 SP SP
28/1
9 (5) 307244 Rileyskeepingfaith 35 4 9-7 v M R Channon C Catlin 102 SP SP
22/1
10 (13) 7-74400 Knot In Wood (IRE) 35 8 9-7 R A Fahey P Hanagan 102 SP SP
25/1
11 (8) 5-07061 Hitchens (IRE) (ex5) 13 5 9-6 T D Barron S De Sousa 96 SP SP
28/1
12 (12) 152011 Poet's Place (USA) (ex5) 7 5 9-6 T D Barron P Makin 96 SP SP
15/2
13 (23) 352530 Quest For Success (IRE) 7 5 9-5 R A Fahey D Allan 100 SP SP
25/1
14 (22) 246030 Signor Peltro 7 7 9-5 H Candy A Culhane 100 SP SP
16/1
15 (19) 270604 Damien (IRE) 8 4 9-4 B W Hills R Winston 99 SP SP
33/1
16 (4) 151302 Parisian Pyramid (IRE) 28 4 9-4 K A Ryan J P Spencer 99 SP SP
33/1
17 (27) 242208 Striking Spirit 7 5 9-4 D Nicholls T P O'Shea 99 SP SP
18/1
18 (24) 026-112 Victoire De Lyphar (IRE) 50 3 9-4 D Nicholls A Nicholls 101 SP SP
13/2
19 (26) 861000 Flipando (IRE) 8 9 9-3 T D Barron L Newman 98 SP SP
33/1
20 (15) 620310 Damika (IRE) 8 7 9-3 R M Whitaker M Stainton (3) 98 SP SP
40/1
21 (6) 412410 Partner (IRE) 41 4 9-2 b D Marnane E J McNamara (3) 97 SP SP
25/1
22 (3) 620010 Prime Exhibit 49 5 9-2 R A Fahey Lee Topliss (5) 97 SP SP
33/1
23 (16) 112301 Hawkeyethenoo (IRE) 56 4 9-2 J S Goldie T E Durcan 97 SP SP
8/1
24 (20) 8-43175 Noverre To Go (IRE) 49 4 9-2 t Tom Dascombe Ross Atkinson (5) 97 SP SP
20/1
25 (17) 920093 Redford (IRE) 28 5 9-2 D Nicholls L Dettori 97 SP SP
14/1
26 (2) 106756 Arganil (USA) 7 5 9-1 b K A Ryan P Mcdonald 96 SP SP
50/1
27 (1) 100000 Johannes (IRE) 7 7 9-1 R A Fahey P Mulrennan 96 SP SP
50/1
Last Winner Year Horse Trainer Jockey SP Age Wt Draw
2009 Jimmy Styles C G Cox L Dettori 14/1 5 9-2 15

Betting Forecast: 6/1 Poet's Place, 7/1 Victoire De Lyphar, 8/1 Jonny Mudball, 8/1 Hawkeyethenoo, 10/1 Genki, 12/1 Redford, 14/1 Evens And Odds, 16/1 Tajneed, 16/1 Rileyskeepingfaith, 16/1 Hitchens, 16/1 Signor Peltro, 20/1 Kaldoun Kingdom, 20/1 Jimmy Styles, 20/1 Knot In Wood, 20/1 Noverre To Go, 25/1 Damien, 25/1 Parisian Pyramid, 25/1 Striking Spirit, 25/1 Partner, 25/1 Prime Exhibit, 33/1 Barney McGrew, 33/1 Castles In The Air, 33/1 Quest For Success, 33/1 Flipando, 33/1 Damika, 33/1 Arganil, 33/1 Johannes

Verdict
Often this pot heads back to Yorkshire and it is VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR who can regain the prize for the North. Dandy Nicholls' gelding ran a blinder in the Stewards' Sprint in July and has been saved for this race since. His mark of 101 asks more questions but this progressive three-year-old is fancied to take advantage of what looks a good high draw. Flipando is overpriced, but a bigger danger might be Poet's Place who picked up a 5lb penalty for victory at Doncaster and this large horse has the scope to progress into Group company. Hitchens is one of several who would prefer any rain to stay away, whilst Quest For Success is one of several interesting Richard Fahey contenders. Damien runs well without winning, Striking Spirit looks another big player for Mr Nicholls, whilst Hawkeyethenoo would be a popular winner for Jim Goldie and it is hard to say whether a 6lb rise for his York win will scupper his chance. At bigger prices Arganil and Kaldoun Kingdom could run well, but more obvious threats are the Stewards' Cup winner Evens And Odds, the runner-up Jonny Mudball and the Sprint Cup third Genki.

FORMWATCH
Barney McGrew (IRE) 66-1 (9-3) With leaders stands side, ridden over 2f out, lost place over 1f out, weakened final furlong, 11th of 13, 9l behind Markab (9-3) at Haydock 6f Grp 1 (1) gf.Kaldoun Kingdom (IRE) 20-1 (8-13) Chased leaders stands side, ridden and outpaced 3f out, no impression when edged right over 1f out, soon weakened, 22nd of 28, 13l behind Evens And Odds (8-10) at Goodwood 6f hcp (2) gd in Jul.Evens And Odds (IRE) 20-1 (8-10) Tracked leaders centre, ridden 2f out, led when merged with stands side over 1f out, drifted right and stayed on to lead overall well inside finall furlong, won at Goodwood 6f hcp (2) gd in Jul beating Jonny Mudball (9-2) by nk, 28 ran.Jonny Mudball 14-1 (9-2) Led far side, ridden and overall leader over 1f out, headed well inside final furlong, kept on, 2nd of 28, nk behind Evens And Odds (8-10) at Goodwood 6f hcp (2) gd in Jul.Tajneed (IRE) 4-1fav (9-1) Made all and overall leader stands side, ridden over 1f out, stayed on well final furlong, won at Ripon 6f hcp 0-100 (2) gd in Aug beating Parisian Pyramid (9-7) by 2 1/2l, 15 ran.Genki (IRE) 20-1 (9-3) Slowly into stride, behind far side, ridden and headway on far side rail over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong to go 3rd final 75 yards, not reached leading pair, 3rd of 13, 2 1/4l behind Markab (9-3) at Haydock 6f Grp 1 (1) gf.Castles In The Air 13-2 (9-0) Keen tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out, last of 10, 19l behind Yaa Wayl (8-9) at York 7f Listed stks (1) gf in Aug.Jimmy Styles 33-1 (9-2) Mid-division stands side, ridden over 1f out, stayed on same pace final furlong, 10th of 28, 5l behind Evens And Odds (8-10) at Goodwood 6f hcp (2) gd in Jul.Rileyskeepingfaith 15-2 (9-7) Raced far sude, settled in mid-division, headway approaching final furlong, ran on well, never reached leaders, 4th of 17, 1 1/4l behind Damika (8-10) at Ripon 6f hcap (2) gs in Aug.Knot In Wood (IRE) 28-1 (9-10) Raced stands side, slowly into stride, in rear, never dangerous, 16th of 17, 11l behind Damika (8-10) at Ripon 6f hcap (2) gs in Aug.Hitchens (IRE) 4-1fav (9-5) Towards rear, headway over 2f out, soon chasing leaders, ridden over 1f out, led last 100 yards, just held on, won at York 6f hcp 0-100 (2) gf beating Secret Witness (8-10) by nk, 16 ran.Poet's Place (USA) 4-1fav (9-4) Slowly into stride, mid-division far side, ridden and headway over 1f out, stayed on to lead close home, won at Doncaster 6f hcp (2) gd beating Bajan Tryst (9-4) by 1/2l, 22 ran.Quest For Success (IRE) 9-1 (9-8) Chased leaders far side, ridden over 1f out, soon weakened, 13th of 22, 7l behind Poet's Place (9-4) at Doncaster 6f hcp (2) gd.Signor Peltro 14-1 (9-8) Held up towards rear centre, pushed along and not much room over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, no impression, 10th of 22, 5l behind Poet's Place (9-4) at Doncaster 6f hcp (2) gd.Damien (IRE) 16-1 (9-9) Towards rear, ridden over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, 4th of 18, 1 3/4l behind Irish Heartbeat (8-10) at Doncaster 6f hcp 105 (2) gd.Parisian Pyramid (IRE) 12-1 (9-7) In touch stands side, chased winner over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on under pressure inside final furlong, no impression, 2nd of 15, 2 1/2l behind Tajneed (9-1) at Ripon 6f hcp 0-100 (2) gd in Aug.Striking Spirit 20-1 (9-2) In touch far side, ridden 2f out, kept on same pace, 8th of 22, 4l behind Poet's Place (9-4) at Doncaster 6f hcp (2) gd.Victoire De Lyphar (IRE) 13-2fav (9-9) Raced far side, pressed leaders, ridden 2f out, every chance throughout final furlong, not pace of winner close home, 2nd of 27, hd behind Joseph Henry (9-1) at Goodwood 6f hcap (2) gf in Jul.Flipando (IRE) 28-1 (9-8) Mid-division, pushed along and weakened over 2f out, 12th of 18, 6l behind Irish Heartbeat (8-10) at Doncaster 6f hcp 105 (2) gd.Damika (IRE) 16-1 (9-5) Behind, never dangerous, 15th of 18, 7l behind Irish Heartbeat (8-10) at Doncaster 6f hcp 105 (2) gd.Partner (IRE) 11-8fav (9-5) Soon tracked leaders, weakened under pressure from 1f out, 10th of 11, 7l behind Pencil Hill (9-4) at Curragh 6f hcap in Aug.Prime Exhibit 28-1 (8-9) Led centre, ridden and headed when merged with stands side over 1f out, weakened final furlong, 19th of 28, 9l behind Evens And Odds (8-10) at Goodwood 6f hcp (2) gd in Jul.Hawkeyethenoo (IRE) 7-1 (9-0) Towards rear aqnd outpaced, ridden and headway over 1f out, stayed on to lead near finish, won at York 6f hcp 105 (2) gf in Jul beating Kaldoun Kingdom (9-5) by hd, 20 ran.Noverre To Go (IRE) 12-1 (9-0) Chased leader far side, ridden and effort over 1f out, kept on and every chance final furlong, no extra towards finish, 5th of 28, 2 1/4l behind Evens And Odds (8-10) at Goodwood 6f hcp (2) gd in Jul.Redford (IRE) 10-1 (9-4) Held up in rear, headway from 2f out, ran on well, never reached leaders, 3rd of 13, 1 3/4l behind Side Glance (8-12) at Chester 1m hcap (2) gs in Aug.Arganil (USA) 40-1 (9-4) Towards rear far side, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, 6th of 22, 2 3/4l behind Poet's Place (9-4) at Doncaster 6f hcp (2) gd.Johannes (IRE) 16-1 (8-13) Mid-division centre, ridden well over 1f out, no impression, 11th of 22, 6l behind Poet's Place (9-4) at Doncaster 6f hcp (2) gd.

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