Derby Trail Forums - 8/15: Saratoga (Day 21-Adirondack); Del Mar ($847k C/O)

Stupidly left obvious Stay Thirsty off ticket Saturday to kill a chance at late P4, but was able to string together a handful of exotics and late P3 to salvage the afternoon. Telling's repeat in the Sword Dancer at 10-1 under a sharp Garrett Gomez ride was the highlight of the day keying a $514.00 tri with 9-2 Bearpath and 7-1 Al Khali. Tri boxes were the order of the day in fact with the 6th ($340.50), 7th ($105.50), 9th ($90.25) and 11th ($171.25) all available along with the Sword Dancer's $514! Hope you did well...

Meet reached the midway point Saturday, and I start the second half having built a very nice bankroll cushion on the strength of the multi race wagers. A survey of just the P4 plays thus far found $2,709 invested with $5,960 returned (+$3,251). Coupled with a handful of other sizable P3 and triple hits, the first 20 days of the session have been highly productive. But just to show how hard it is to win long term in this game, despite being "up" around $5k for the meet, I am still down about $3k in 2010 after struggling mightily during the first third of the year. Will do all I can to make the next 20 days as profitable as the first 20! It starts out with a straightforward looking card Sunday at the Spa and an enormous $847k carryover at Del Mar.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Kissa Melissa 3-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Verse Choir 7-2 5th
Best Value: #7 Lady Durlyn 9-2 6th
Super Add: #1 Poovey 7-2 2nd

2nd: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Beyond top tab of Bond's Brunelli, another one of those Empire scrammbles that produce great mutuels. Spread far and wide to catch numbers underneath selection who should win despite pilot..

Most Likely: #5 BRUNELLI 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Beth's Kitten 3-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Rappaport 12-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Unforgettable P J 20-1 9th

3rd: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

One option is to be against 2-1 ML fave Payout, but Brown going too well to take strong stand against. Respect, but don't fear with barn below par with these kinds of returns..

Best Value: #6 Marsh Haven SCR
Most Likely: #8 Payout 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Gotta Go Round 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Ponte Vecchio 12-1 8th

SCR Add: #2 Who's Willie Fitz 8-1 WON ($44.80)

4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Happy Week 5-2: Overmatched in stake; Sits trip.. WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #4 Lily Meadow 6-1: Turns back off CD ALW v. stakes caliber.. 2nd-DH
Next Best: #1 Obey the Rules 6-1: Ouchy filly but last fits and should rally.. 5th
Super Add: #2 Spina 10-1: Personal favorite's 2 W's came this strip.. 2nd-DH

5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Well-matched bunch with many here likely worth more than the $25k tag hanging on them. I prefer nicely toted Fancy Fiona (5-1), but trip could easily boost any of a half dozen to diploma..

Best Value: #9 Fancy Fiona 5-1 WON ($19.20)
Next Best: #4 Seaside Run 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Deanallen'skitten 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 To the Point 6-1 4th

@$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-5
3: 7-8
4: 1-2-3-4-8
5: 1-4-5-9

2x2x5x4 = $80

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Golly Day 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Motion Play 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Dbl Nvisabl George 12-1 6th
Super Add: #6 El Corriente SCRATCHED

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Networking 3-1: Great family; Big edge having started.. 4th
Best Value: #6 Barn Diva 9-2: Sibs all winners including MGSW High Cotton 5th
Next Best: #7 Dance Quietly 7-2: Saint Liam half, but full to 'fast early' American Dance.. 7th
Super Add: #9 Afaaf 6-1: O/O sister of Funny Cide, half to Rule.. 2nd

8th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Sterling Silver 3-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Up in Lights 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Smart Farming 4-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Prize Catch 4-1 WON-DH ($5.00)

9th: 94th Adirondack (G2), 2yo-F, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Position Limit 5-2: Tough to fault off big fig debut romp.. WON ($5.10)
Best Value: #3 Hula 15-1: Game in debut CD win; Adds Dominguez for stalking try.. 4th
Next Best: #4 Alienation 4-1: Brings M. Garcia with her for dirt bow.. 2nd
Super Add: #2 Miss Sarah Brown 8-1: CRC filly by sire that zipped on this oval.. 10th

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Medaglia's Express SCR
Best Value: #2 Smooth Transition 15-1: Better now on lawn? Martin comebackers excel.. 8th
Next Best: #6 Cops Fever 6-1: Hard knocker a minor award specialist.. 5th
Super Add: #9 Shimmering Forest 7-2: Takes disconcerting drop.. 3rd

SCR Add: #8 Epicurus 6-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-6-7-9
8: 1-4-7-9
9: 8
10: 2-6-9

4x4x1x3 = $48

DEL MAR

PRE-SCRATCHES

<$100 P6 -- $847k Carryover -- Play:

4: 4-5-7
5: 6
6: 7
7: 1-6
8: 1-4
9: 1-11-12-14

3x1x1x2x2x4 = 48 x $2 = $96 $2 P6 (5 Correct) Paid $66.60

Good luck!
Steve