8/2: Saratoga (Day 10-Amsterdam)
 

First quarter of Spa session draws to a close Monday after an eclectic weekend that featured perfect weather, robust crowds and good racing. Tony Dutrow, featured on Monday morning's ATR, enjoyed a particularly good Sat./Sun with A Little Warm taking the Jim Dandy ahead of Winslow Homer punching his Travers ticket in the listed Curlin. At Monmouth, Lookin at Lucky scored a visually impressive win in the Haskell, and we will wait and see if Bob Baffert tries to duplicate Point Given's achievement of winning at Oceanport ahead of the Travers. Haskell runner up Trappe Shot, like Afleet Express in the Jim Dandy, gained valuable experience and figures to be that much more prepared for his attempt at the Midsummer Derby.

Wagering was up and down Sunday with the radar picking up some very solid 'Best Value' horses for random hits, but the multis missing their mark. $12.20 Six Flings survived an inquiry to stay up in the 4th, and keyed a $131.00 triple with Stormin Bolt and Fenway Faithful and Aprilmayjune was sharp winning the Maiden Claiming 5th for $17.40 and $25 exacta with even money Atlantic Beauty. Left money on the table in the late P4 trying to single Unrivaled Belle, and that hurt when Best Value on top Enniskillen paid a nice $15.00 on top of the short number favorites. The P4 investments could be defrayed pretty well with $69.50 P3 with Winslow Homer and Malibu Prayer. Not a bad day but exited the weekend feeling like there were opportunities missed over the two days. Hope you did OK... Amsterdam the feature today at Saratoga with possibility of some rain.


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Use #11 (AE) Auric Girl in your exotics should she draw in. Is alternating efforts and is ready for a good one despite Studart..

Most Likely: #10 Lisa Jean 3-1 WON ($8.20)
Best Value: #5 Loyal Shadow 10-1 2ND
Next Best: #8 Spirit of Rose 5-2 6TH
Super Add: #6 Pretty Cozzy 7-2 5TH


2nd: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Spa City Lover 3-1 2ND
Best Value: #8 Queen Harbor 4-1 WON ($6.30)
Next Best: #5 SCR
Super Add: #4 Jet Fever 8-1 6TH


3rd: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Adam Rides Again 3-1 2ND
Next Best: #5 Saratoga Steve 7-2 4TH
Best Value: #8 E. P. Bombay 10-1 10TH
Super Add: #2 Tudor King 15-1 8TH


4th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 William's Prayer 4-1 8TH
Best Value: #6 Joes Blazing Aaron 10-1 7TH
Next Best: #2 Sunday Splitsville 2-1 WON ($3.20)
Super Add: #7 Kid Curry 10-1 5TH


5th: CLM, 3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Rocketing Returns 4-1 3RD
Next Best: #7 Ferentz 8-1 4TH
Exotics Use: #8 The Round House 5-1 5TH
Super Add: #3 Ball Four 5-2 7TH


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 5-6-8
3: 5-6-8
4: 2-4-6-7
5: 4-7

3x3x4x2 = $72


6th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult turf sprint with platers of various drop and hop..

Most Likely: #2 Redefined 3-1 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #10 Pewter 10-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Gold Vendetta 4-1 9th
Super Add: #8 Cires 8-1 8th


7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Intriguing betting race with favorite meriting edge but a host of options at fat totes beyond her..

Most Likely: #2 Australis Princess 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #8 Alykela 20-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Mythical Yarn 4-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Wise Choice 12-1 2nd


8th: 18th Amsterdam (G2), 3yo, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Safe Trip 4-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Latigo Shore 9-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Discreetly Mine 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Super Add: #1a General Maximus 6-1 9th


9th: CLM, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (Super)

Best Value: #10 Sweet Like Sugar 15-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Zodiac Girl 3-1
Exotics Use: #7 Performing 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Zapparition 8-1 WON ($25.00)


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-6-8-10
7: 2-8
8: 3-5-8
9: 8-10

6x2x3x2 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

Steve

I think this late pick 4 today is one to take the big swing at, use pick 6 type $$$$. Discretely Mine I think can be had and will be a clear single for smaller players and in the nightcap with Hey Babe out, Ramon on the stretchout with your "Best Value Horse" is a great play. Probably will take action in the race itself, but is exactly the type that will be worth double or triple in the pick 4.

You beat Discretely Mine, get that horse to hang on in the nightcap, with the first two legs pretty wide open with some upset possibilities.....could be the $10, $18, $24, $24 pick 4 that messes up the toteboard...

I am going to try and use some of last weeks bounty to smash this one.

That said, it will be a parade of $6 fidgits, but I am trying today.

6) 1 2 3 6 8 10
7) 1 2 3 6 8
8) 3 5 9
9) 8 9 10

$270

Also keyed Sweet Like Sugar all over the supers.

Thanks for the hospitality last week. As always, it was great fun! The boy is hooked. He can tell you to the minute when to leave the BBQ, in order to get to the paddock area, in order to place some action, in order to get trackside with 1 MTP. Down to a science! See you again in a few weeks.

Best of luck today.

I agree. I am putting at least $150 into the late pick 4, on 1 ticket.

I am with you on the 10 in the last at a price, Steve. Good Luck!

$6 fidgits....

uM THE ups and downs of this game, I was up $1500 and just lost $700 back in 2 races, and blew out of a 300 pick 4 in leg 1

Arggggh!

It's called Bankroll Management.

Fan, why use DM on your ticket at all if you think he can be had?

My thought on including him was that I needn't be correct on my opinions in all legs.

6) Wide Open (wrong)
7) Wide Open (wrong again)
8) Discretely Mine could be had (seriously wrong)
9) Ramon could get that horse to wire (wrong.....interesting ride though.....on the pace, off the pace, shuffled back, came a little at the end. A pretty uncertain ride by arguably the nations best jock)

My point is, had I been correct once or twice, I didn't want that horse to be the beat that kept me from collecting on my other opinions, or lack thereof.

I'm wise enough to know that stringing together four solid thoughts consecutive is a difficult task, but sometimes you can "get it right" even when you are wrong.

I thought it looked wide open. Not so much. The return on that sequence ended up being more than respectable. ($273)

To hit big sequences you need to be able to include some odd horses, and hope you can land more than one in a four race block. I thought this was an opportunity, but felt the include of Disc. Mine would be prudent if the other legs did indeed blow up, which they didn't.

I totally blew out.

Good Capping today Steve, winner in the mix 7/9 is good.

I hear you dude. I had this discussion with some players maybe 5 years ago and they changed my mind on things. Basically I did as you did and included the fave in multis and their point was, if you think they are vulnerable, and the price will return less, why include them at all....I came to the conclusion they were right actually. Now DM won today, but if you feel a big fave is going down, just play with confidence. Good talk.

I felt he was less than 50/50, not enough to toss, not strong enough to single and play the sequence for more $$$$, but thought including others that had a chance could yield the score...

Worthy of debate, I am sure.