Derby Trail Forums - 7/31: Saratoga (Day 8-Diana/Jim Dandy)

Managed to negotiate both big tickets successfully Friday, catching the early P4 for $316 and the late quad for $926 keyed by delightfully overlooked My Dinah ($16.20 as 7th race Best Value top choice). As anticipated, the second P4 was the sequence that had real potential, and the return was the kind you need at this session to build bankroll power. Hitting for nearly $1,000 is always welcome, but it's also important to pause and recognize that the payoff could have more than tripled had Lights Out Lisa won the 8th race photo.

The key to the multi-race score is getting yourself into position to have the chance to be rewarded for daring play. The parlay for the winning skien was $781 (with Ride On Josephine in the 8th), while the parlay with Lights Out Lisa was an estimated $2,724. You can't know that the P4 would have paid 4X more with Lights Out Lisa that it did with Ride On Josephine, but it certainly would have been at least 2-2.5 than the $926. You build the multi play looking to survive each leg, but need to evaluate races for possible outcomes that the public isn't considering. My Dinah seemed perfectly set up for a dream trip in the Fleet Indian with at least three speed horses likely to be dueling ahead of her. Indeed, that's how it played out, and her win likely knocked out a number of P4 plays.

It should be mentioned too that late scratches of 9th race short number Person of Interest and Fleet Indian S. possible Wicked Diva did P4 winners a favor, as neither of the horses that those tickets received as the post time favorite won. And while those of you that won the late P4 benefitted this time, as has been discussed by Steve Crist, the rule that forces the post time favorite on players needs to be reworked to be more equitable.

Hope everyone did well... Things have been going nicely, and I hope I can keep it going for you today! Big weekend ahead!

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-Fasig, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

State bred stake is largely devoid of pace factors. Can't Maragh boss this around on Akilina?

Most Likely: #3 Akilina 3-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Chestoria 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 You Go West Girl 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Our Golden Dream 8-1 6th

2nd: MSW, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Curious group of maidens that have either flashed some talent or are rumored to have ability. A jump up winner here is more likely than possible. ML fave Bakhoor is being asked to do a lot stretching from three quarters to a mile and three eighths..

Most Likely: #1 Medal Round 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Megaholtz 3-1 8th
Best Value: #2 Savannah Bay 8-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Admiral Alex 10-1 WON ($7.40)

3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Hodge-podge of misfits that are being thrown together by connections in a 'have to try something with this horse' manner. ML choice #5 Wonderboy Roy probably will win, and while 8-5 (or less) isn't usually the kind of price you embrace in a race like this, it's tough to latch on to anything else with any confidence.. HAS SCRATCHED!

Most Likely: #10 Strolldownbroadway 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Peytons Heart 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Miss Hanky Panky 5-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Unforgettable P J 12-1 7th

4th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Ducale 9-2 7th
Next Best: #13 Jim's Applemartini 7-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Chuckie's Honor 6-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Ambassador Bridge 6-1 2nd

5th: OC/N$Y, 3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Insider Tip 8-1: Priced right and should get cozy trip 5th
Next Best: #3 Caberneigh 9-2: 3rd/break; Handy speed for Gomez.. WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Rescue Squad 2-1 6th
Super Add: #1 En Fuego 7-2 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-3-6-7-8
3: 1-4-6-10
4: 3
5: 2-3-6

6x4x2x3 = $72

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Has look of baby race that will be productive, but among the firsters, there needs to be one that is really ready to beat Volcker..

Most Likely: #10 Volcker 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Arthur's Tale 10-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Astrology 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Settle for Medal 6-1 WON ($45.20)

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

As discussed by Steve Haskin on ATR Friday, a very intense allowance with some 3yo's involved that could pop up in the Travers with forward efforts..

Most Likely: #1 Morning Line 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Heart Butte 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Gallant Fields 4-1 10th
Super Add: #4 Two Brash 10-1 7th

8th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 The Noz 3-1: Obvious, but hardly inspiring.. WON ($6.10)
Best Value: #10 Central Red Raider 10-1: One of several that can jump up.. 4th
Next Best: #3 Paddock SCR
Super Add: #6 Felice Di Notte 12-1 8th

9th: 72nd Diana (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Proviso 5-2: Hard to go against off '10 form.. WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #4 Forever Together 2-1: Winless since '09 version of this.. 3rd
Best Value: #2 My Princess Jess 8-1: Consistantly close in big races.. 7th
Super Add: #3 Phola 4-1: Beautifully handled and still improving.. 6th

10th: 47th Jim Dandy (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Eventhough the 2010 sophomores are a largely mediocre lot, add this to Sunday's Haskell, the 7th race ALW above and perhaps a West Coast invader or two, and you have the recipe for one of the best Travers in recent memory..

Most Likely: #2 Afleet Express 4-1: J. Jerkens carefully developing sharp colt.. 3rd
Best Value: #8 Friend or Foe 8-1: Kimmel-Broman NY-bred red still has tons of upside yet.. 4th
Next Best: #9 Fly Down 3-1: Belmont place pony possible tonic for struggling Lezcano.. 5th
Super Add: #3 Stormy's Majesty 15-1: From top to NY-bred family; Exotics booster.. 8th

11th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Dr. Alex 7-2 5th
Next Best: #9 British Banker 3-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Brad's My Hero 15-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Chromosphere 6-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-7-10
9: 1-4
10: 2-8-9
11: 1-2-6-9

3x2x3x4 = $72

Good luck!
Steve