Derby Trail Forums - 7/29: Saratoga (Day 6-$35k C/O)

Enjoyed good start to first full week of Saratoga season, catching the late P4 for a robust $923 as well as the 2 excellent P3's within the quad ($225 & $166) on the strength of including Lake George heroine Perfect Shirl ($20.60). Only Roy Lerman's Essex Ferry escaped notice on the the win end Wednesday, as I have trouble betting the retired attorney's horses (though he can win races). Hope you did well as the consistant beginning to the Spa session continued. $35k carryover a big part of the Thursday action, but the sequence, and much of the card, feels very treacherous...

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: Kiser Novice, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences Course (P3, DD, Super)

First hurdle event of the year, and a few known commodities dot the PP's..

Most Likely: #2 Nationbuilder 4-1: Hodsdon chooses Came Home 6yo.. 4th
Next Best: #4 Mabou 3-1: Voss-Ramsey 7yo improved since '09 try this race.. 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Virginia Minstrel 4-1 2nd

2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Sky Hosoya 9-5 WON ($3.70)
Next Best: #3 R Bling 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Tensas Punch 7-2 2nd

3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 High Stakes Player 3-1: Race two back good enough.. WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #1e Zito entry 10-1: 1a Scuba Diver snaps back here.. 6th/7th
Next Best: #4 Vision d'Amour 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Justice Harlan 8-1 8th

4th: Lucy Scribner, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, NO SUPERSuper)

Nice overnight. The amount of front-end interested parties makes me fearful of an off the pace threat, and the 2-1 favorite (#2 Devil by Design) appears tactical enough to rate for 'meaux..

Most Likely: #2 Devil by Design 2-1 WON ($4.30)
Best Value: #1 Decelerator 6-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Perfect for You 8-1 5th

5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 11f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$35k Carryover starts here..

How much more can you take from Ermine Slippers (3-1) beaten 6X at 6-1 or less?

Most Likely: #2 Dyani 2-1: Saves ground and added distance suits well.. WON ($4.90)
Best Value: #6 Cocktail Hour 12-1: Nice price on Dynaformer that may like trip.. 5th
Next Best: #8 Somalia 7-2 7th
Super Add: #7 Deceive 5-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-5
3: 1-3-4
4: 2
5: 1-2-6-7-8

3x3x1x5 = $45 $1 P4 (5-3-2-2) Paid $33.25

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Very confusing group of dime claimers, and once again here, your tickets need to consider the frustrating presence of a horse that has moved to Rudy Rod's barn (#10 D'bigcat)..

Most Likely: #11 Redwood Fever 4-1 6th
Next Best: #10 D'bigcat 7-2 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Rotten to the Core 4-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Awesome Preacher 10-1 4th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 System Ready Paddock SCR - Illegal shoes
Next Best: #7 Peb Hughes 4-1: Not thrilled with tote on Cherokee Artist half.. 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Rise to Glory 12-1 9th
Super Add: #1 Bonaroo 15-1 7th

8th: Quick Call, 3yo, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Beau Choix 3-1 WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #7 Psychic Income 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Our Douglas 5-2 7th
Super Add: #4 Alfarabi 8-1 6th

9th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Challenging turf event for state bred fillies that appears wide open beyond the top choices..

Most Likely: #9 Chorus Music 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Great Gracie Dane 3-1 WON ($6.10)
Best Value: #6 Freud's Notebook 12-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Wild Awake 6-1 5th

10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Best Value: #7 Versailles Road 12-1: MDN win on poly good and grass last similar' Overlaid.. 4th
Next Best: #5 Cherokee Speed 7-2: Hard hitter settles for placements often.. 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Devon Rock 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Karakorum Legend 5-1 WON ($15.80)

<$200 P6 Play:

Not a sextet that can be easily approached..

5: 2-6-7-8
6: 10-11
7: 4-7
8: 6-7
9: 2-9
10: 1-5-7

4x2x2x2x2x3 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

Like the P6, an exceedingly slippery sequence..

7: 4-7-10
8: 1-4-6-7
9: 2-9
10: 1-5-7

3x4x2x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve