Derby Trail Forums - 7/28: Saratoga (Day 5-Lake George)

Strong start over the first quartet of days at Saratoga ended with the bankroll in very good stead on the strength of a $696 late P4 and big score in the 7th keyed by $25 Best Value 2nd choice Honorable Truth ($243 tri). While I was confident enough to include Honorable Truth in the quad play, I tried to get away with singling runner up Platinum Plus in the P6, and that resulted in getting 5 of 6 ($200 conso for $192 play) on the second carryover in the meet's opening salvo. As is typical at Saratoga, finding one horse like Honorable Truth or one overlaid multi-horse/multi-race result regularly, is what you need to boost the mutuels in your favor. Sunday, A Smart Judge (27-1) was the right horse to have with 4-5 Cody Samora ($38 exacta), while the $67.75 ($1) Sanford exacta and $150.75 ($1) nightcap triple kept the day's investments liquid. Saturday, the early P4 ($359) carried the day, while Friday's opener (Dontstealmyland $48.60; $953 tri) set the tone. The big pools are your friend, and justify your commitment to continuing to fire when things don't always go your way immediately. It doesn't take but one well-placed bet to make your day, week or meet at Saratoga...

"Week 2" starts today, the traditional opening day, and a slippery card is at hand to get it going. Hope you did well Monday and over the first four days!

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+. 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Nicely matched group of state bred ALW types that almost all run similar Beyer par; Schosberg sends uncoupled pair as ML faves, but neither are more appealling than some of the price alternatives including Heavenly Blaze that I've chased before and want to try to get involved here..

Most Likely: #8 Zosogood 4-1: Draws ideally for classic 7/8's stalking trip.. WON ($11.60)
Next Best: #7 Fortunate Run 6-1: That Maragh sticks here is encouraging.. 4th
Best Value: #5 Heavenly Blaze 15-1 7th
Super Add: 2 Hittin the Note 5-2 3rd

2nd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Include the Cat 3-1: Dollase trims price; Style suits Solis.. 2nd
Best Value: #6 Amazing Lauren 6-1: Figures with improvement as first time 3yo.. 3rd
Next Best: #4 Grosse Pointe Anne 5-2 WON ($5.90)
Super Add: #7 E Street 4-1 4th

3rd: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Very tricky set considering $12.5k sale price; There are 'real' horses here, all 5 or 6yo's in fact, that have won 41 races between them..

Best Value: #2 Motown Shuffle 12-1: Doesn't he exit series of tougher races? 6th
Next Best: #4 Shyrock 6-1: Well-spotted since moving to Wally.. 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Aquino 5-1 WON ($7.60)
Super Add: #6 Not for Money 5-2 3rd

4th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Hard-pressed to lean on 3-1 On Vacation who couldn't fend off the notoriously win-shy Key Victory last time or 4-1 Overlap who needs to improve to best several well-priced options; Good betting race..

Best Value: #1 Nacho Corona 5-1: Drops in and saves ground under Leparoux.. 3rd
Next Best: #4 Quick Delivery 4-1 WON ($7.70)
Exotics Use: #7 Cops Fever 12-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Motion Play 5-1 2nd

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Bad horses win bad races, and this P4 anchor could be a prime spot for that axiom; Won Token may be the most likely, but she's not the most reliable..

Best Value: #2 Great Cliff 6-1 6th
Most Likely: #8 Won Token 3-1 3rd-DH
Next Best: #1 La Belle Gabrielle 4-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Money Charger 12-1 3rd-DH

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-6
3: 2-4-5
4: 1-4-7-10
5: 2-8

3x3x4x2 = 72

6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5fIT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Nice wagering race with even group of turf maidens..

Most Likely: #8 Fancy Fiona 7-2: Makes rare 2nd/layoff start start; Brings Court.. 4th
Best Value: #10 Much Fanfare 6-1 WON ($9.90)
Next Best: #12 Conspicuous 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Charmed 5-1 6th

7th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Yet another of the races on today's slate that has a chaotic feel, and you know Dunvegan will be overbet by virtue of Rice..

Most Likely: #6 Crowned General 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #1 King Rock 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Flatter Than Me 8-1
Super Add: #10 Coronation Day 5-1 4th

8th: 15th Lake George (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

With sister race Boiling Springs, one of the best targets for 3yo old fillies to gain black type, and this mind-bending edition has lured soph missies from the hinterlands; Wide, wide open and a nearly impossible event to decipher; No opinion or conceivable scenario should be dismissed..

Best Value: #6 No Explaining 12-1: Forward going & relished stretchout; Gets lost on tote? 3rd
Next Best: #12 Bay to Bay 4-1: Consistent Lynch miss can rally into any pace.. 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Dynazapper 12-1: Doubt price holds; Best of first run options.. 6th
Super Add: #11 Caminadora 12-1: Broke through in last; Got 7 weeks to recoup.. 10th

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #7 Broken Dreams 6-1 WON
Next Best: #10 Royal Fortune 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Easy Ashley 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Colour the Wind 3-1

$1 Exacta (7-10) Paid $19.10
$1 Trifecta (7-10-1) Paid $93.50

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 8-10-12
7: 1-6
8: 2-5-6-9-11-12
9: 7-10

3x2x6x2 = $72 $1 P4 (10/4,5,6/5/7) Paid $923.50

Good luck!
Steve