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-   -   WED - Woodbine R4 - Spot Play (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=37137)

Bogey 07-14-2010 06:29 AM

WED - Woodbine R4 - Spot Play
 
Woodbine - (Post Time 8:15pm ET)


R4 - OC 80k / N3X (Turf 8.5F)

#8 Redverse - Looks to sit a nice stalking trip in 3rd start of the year. (10-1) 5TH
#3 Sugar Bay - Extremely competitive and should be right there at the end. (2-1) 2ND
#9 No Use Denying - Has been freshened up for return to the lawn. (20-1) 3RD
#10 Missit (Ire) - Needs to be forwardly placed for her best showing. (6-1)

Tri Key - 8 / 3 5 9 10
Tri P/W - 3 5 9 10 / 8 / 3 5 9 10


Good Racing Luck

the_fat_man 07-14-2010 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bogey (Post 668831)
Woodbine - (Post Time 8:15pm ET)


R4 - OC 80k / N3X (Turf 8.5F)

#8 Redverse - Looks to sit a nice stalking trip in 3rd start of the year. (10-1)
#3 Sugar Bay - Extremely competitive and should be right there at the end. (2-1)

She won last out so why is the 3 start relevant?

That said, Ramsammy moved her prematurely last out and she just hung on to a very decent horse (Soul of Nataka). But I don't think she beats Sugar Bay tonight -- even with the cutback.

Bogey 07-14-2010 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man (Post 668895)
She won last out so why is the 3 start relevant?

That said, Ramsammy moved her prematurely last out and she just hung on to a very decent horse (Soul of Nataka). But I don't think she beats Sugar Bay tonight -- even with the cutback.

She's eligible to take another step forward, especially with the cutback.

the_fat_man 07-14-2010 06:34 PM

Interesting situation in the 3rd, a 6F maiden turf sprinter, where most are trying the turf for the 1st time.

Red Sierra has, arguably, the best overall AWS form.
I think See and Be Seen ran better in the race they have in common.

With 9 minutes to post, Red Sierra is 2:1 and SaBS is 9:1. She'll probably go down but anything > 6:1 is probably a good bet. She gets blinkers on and should be able to control this (assuming none of the 1sters takes to the turf).

oilertige 07-14-2010 06:50 PM

good call FM with SaBS - nice one!

herkhorse 07-14-2010 06:52 PM

nice fatman

pick 4 try

1-3-5/2-10-12/2-3/2-3-9

the_fat_man 07-14-2010 07:12 PM

TY

R4

Exacta: 3 / 5, 6

the_fat_man 07-14-2010 07:21 PM

What a horrible ride by Sutherland. How can she justify getting the CLEARLY best horse beat with her ineptness?

randallscott35 07-14-2010 07:26 PM

Wasn't that a nice reminder of why she is gone from Cali? Horrendous

the_fat_man 07-14-2010 07:44 PM

R5:

large field; hopefully no surprises

exacta: 10 / 2, 12

tri: 10 / 2, 12 / 2, 12

don't see the 2 beating the 10; could see the 12 beating the 10 but not worth reversing given the prices,

herkhorse 07-14-2010 07:51 PM

Nice again fats :tro:

the_fat_man 07-14-2010 07:54 PM

If Da Silva perseveres to the wire, I have a 2 number TRI. It had to have paid $80, at least, right?

herkhorse 07-14-2010 07:56 PM

Wow, watching on the computer, I thought he did.

Wayne Bertrand 07-14-2010 07:58 PM

Looking Forward to the 8th @ woodbine
 
Any opinions in the last ?

the_fat_man 07-14-2010 08:15 PM

R6:

Tough race. I like the 1 a bit but he's not exactly fair odds. I think the 8 has a shot and he's certainly long enough.

the_fat_man 07-14-2010 08:41 PM

R7:

I like the 10, cutting back 1/16th. He's fast enough to stay close and unless Ramsammy gets him involved early in a duel (highly likely), he might be the best of those close to the pace. He's square at 8:1 presently.

The 6 is also cutting back and could be there is the race falls apart. But he's too low at 5:1.

The 9 figures to be the 'controlling' speed.

Exacta: 10, 6 / 9

dagolfer33 07-14-2010 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by herkhorse (Post 669058)
nice fatman

pick 4 try

1-3-5/2-10-12/2-3/2-3-9

Great hit Herk!!!!!!:$:

the_fat_man 07-14-2010 08:47 PM

GREAT play, Herk

This P4 should be nice now.

herkhorse 07-14-2010 08:49 PM

thanks, was sweating it out at the end, 756.00

the_fat_man 07-14-2010 09:08 PM

R9:

hard to look past the 2 here. the 9 and the 11 are the competition. the 7 might surprise but I've pretty much given up on her.

I could see the 11 beating the 2 but none of the others should threaten her.

Exacta: 2 / 9, 11


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