Derby Trail Forums - 7/8: Belmont (3rd-9th); Arlington 2yo's (6th)

Extreme heat in the Northeast and lack of entries in the West played havoc with the race week, with no less than 5 cards being scuttled, but the break in temps on the Eastern Seaboard gets things back to normal. In addition, Calder's Summit of Speed and Gold Cup Day at Hollywood are on the horizon to bookend an outstanding weekend docket.

Belmont offers modest action for Thursday with a couple of good allowances, while Friday looms with day, twilight, evening and late night action from New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania to Illinois and California... Full Summit and Gold Cup/Triple coverage on ATR Friday morning with Mike Welsch (DRF) and Caton Brader (HRTV) and Andy Beyer among the guests!

BELMONT PARK

POSt-SCRATCHES

3rd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Has potential to be a strange race given short field and total absence of speed.. Is it possible that Sapphire Mink and Suzanne have been wasting a lot of starts on surfaces for which they aren't meant?

Most Likely: #2 Station Hill 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Sapphire Mink 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Banker's Buy 7-5 WON ($3.50)

4th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Would be nice to find a horse to lean on as candidate to beat 1-1 Big Stick, but unfortunately, that horse doesn't appear in this horrific lineup..

Most Likely: #4 Big Stick 1-1 WON ($3.10)
Next Best: #7 Pavoratti's Soul 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 French Transition 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Ungi Blanc 15-1 4th

5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 No Goal 7-2 6th
Best Value: #3 Saint Jen 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Can't Rezist 5-2 WON ($5.30)
Super Add: #5 Rani Baba 5-1 3rd

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

This is a much better, and trickier, race than it looks like t first glance, and while Chad Brown's ML favorite Financially Secure is the horse to beat, h hardly towers over the next 4-5 contenders..

Most Likely: #1 Financially Secure 8-5 5th
Best Value: #7 R J Hope 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Pico Dinero 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Pagan Ruler 12-1 4th

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Seis de Mayo 4-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Franklin Delano 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 We Get It 5-2 6th

8th: OC/C, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Al Khali 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #2 Summer Patriot 5-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Rogue Victory 8-1 2nd

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Tough Cookie T 2-1
Best Value: #2 Lupo 6-1
Next Best: #4 King Prada 7-2
Super Add: #3 Empire State 10-1

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-4-5-6-7
7: 4-7-8
8: 2-4
9: 2-9

6x3x2x2 = $72

ARLINGTON PARK

6th (3:25): MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

No wagering opinion to offer up with group that features all first time starts, but a field worth looking at for some pedigree notes. #6 Bella Couture (Ian Wilkes) is the first foal to race from the MSW NY-bred Sabellina, who was passed back and forth seasonally between Chuck Simon and Carlos Martin. Chuck won the G3 Cardinal with her as a 5yo, while Carlos won a Yaddo and Mount Vernon; Mike Stidham sends #5 Crepe Myrtle, a bargain $9k KEE yearling by Purge that is a half sister to 4x SW Barcola; Tom Proctor has #2 Inside Deal, a full sister to the briefly-heralded Frisco Star..

1 Tellme All Aboutit Sanchez D DiVito James P 118 FTL 12-1
2 Inside Deal Castanon J L Proctor Thomas F 118 FTL 8-1
3 Lady Bluegrass Alvarado J Compton Greg 118 20-1
4 Holy Heavens Geroux F Catalano Wayne M 118 FTL 9-2
5 Crepe Myrtle Baze M C Stidham Michael 118 FTL 7-2
6 Bella Couture Sellers S J Wilkes Ian R 118 12-1
7 Grand Distraction Karlsson I Demeritte Larry 118 L 30-1
8 Put and Take Emigh C A Becker Scott 118 FTL 6-1
9 Fiscal Policy Graham J Amoss Thomas 118 FTL 8-5

Good luck!
Steve