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-   -   6/5: Belmont Park (Belmont Stakes Day) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=36459)

Kasept 06-05-2010 07:12 AM

6/5: Belmont Park (Belmont Stakes Day)
 
Carryover cards at Belmont and Hollywood both proved trickier than they looked Friday as New York went unhit and California returned $65k to clever ducats. At Elmont, Sciacca struck again to contribute to the double carryover into Belmont Stakes Day, with overlay Loyal Shadow, the on top 'Best Value' tab, flying late down the stretch to pay $24.60. At that point, I felt good about the P6 play that was 3 for 3, but the wheels came off the rest of the way. The double carryover is something of a moot point in terms of the pool today given that NYRA is offering a $1,000,000 guarantee anyway. There is also a $1MM P4 on the all stakes 8th-11th. The Belmont card is a varied and fun slate that should produce some surprises. At Inglewood, no 'impossible' horse won, but just enough iffy includes scored to reward those that invested. Hope you did well, and hope you've enjoyed the Met Mile-Belmont Week coverage live from 'American Ascot'...


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Seis de Mayo 6-5 6th
Next Best: #7 I Got Swagger 9-2 7th
Best Value: #9 Timber Cat 15-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Prince Cody 10-1 3rd


2nd: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Tapaline 9-5 WON ($4.30)
Best Value: #1 Soo's Purse 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Gracilla 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Eliza Grace 15-1 8th


3rd: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1e J. Jerkens entry 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #7 SCR
Exotics Use: #6 Wonder Beyond 5-1 9th

SCR ADD: #10 Pagan Ruler 15-1 8th


4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Trappe Shot 2-1 WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #2 Monte Carlo 8-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Zio Tony 4-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Top It 15-1 3rd


5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Strong Commitment 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Cherokee Speed 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Xodo 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Manhattan Fox 3-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-7
3: 1-6
4: 1-2-3-6-8
5: 3-6

3x2x5x2 = $60


6th: 26th Woody Stephens (G2), 3yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Considering the 5 horse field, a curiously difficult race with the 2 faves coming off flops..

Most Likely: #1 Eightyfiveinafifty 9-5
Next Best: #5 D' Funnybone 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #2 Remand 10-1 3rd


7th: 17th Just a Game (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Proviso 8-5 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #2 My Princess Jess 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Fantasia 5-1 5th


8th: 32nd True North (G2), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 SCR
Next Best: #8 Checklist 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Elusive Warning 8-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Bribon 3-1 WON ($7.50)

SCR ADD: #6 Formidable 10-1 4th


9th: 80th Acorn (G1), 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Wild assembly of soph filly talent with Oaks runners cutting back and sprinters stretching out. Suppose Amen Hallelujah is the likeliest winner if she runs her "A" race, but there are plenty of alternative scenarios including Jimmy Toner's daughter of the wonderful Soaring Softly (#8) Much Rejoicing who has unlimited upside after two impressive performances in her debut and second start. One implausible but potentially lucrative development could be wickedly fast Champagne d'Oro loose on the lead. She will be an enormous price (30-1 ML with chance to float higher), and could get very brave down the stretch if allowed any leeway early..

Most Likely: #6 Amen Hallelujah 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 Much Rejoicing 10-1 10th
Best Value: #12 Champagne d'Oro 30-1 WON ($81.00)
Super Add: #3 Dances With Ashley 20-1 11th


10th: 109th Manhattan (G1), 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Outstanding, deep edition of this august standard..

Most Likely: #5 Take the Points 9-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Gio Ponti 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Strike a Deal 12-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Just as Well 10-1 10th


11th: 142nd Belmont Stakes (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD, Super)

Slightly offbeat Triple Crown season draws to a close with a very well-matched set of sophomores that offer varying degrees of experience, aptitude and ability. As always, the mile and a half provides the intrigue, and though the Derby and Preakness runners up are the obvious players, the race 'feels' wide open. As I wrote though in the Xpressbet Wagering Guide, horses exiting the TC events have been overwhelmingly successful in the Test of the Champion, and are the keys to my approach today. I'll include Uptowncharlybrown and Stay Put on my tickets as well. Hope you have enjoyed ATR coverage of the Triple Crown, and I hope everyone has a great Belmont Day...

Most Likely: #6 Ice Box 3-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Make Music for Me 10-1 9th
Next Best: #11 First Dude 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #9 Stately Victor 15-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 7-8
9: 3-6-8-12
10: 1-2-5
11: 4-6-11

2x4x3x3 = $72


<$250 P6 Play:

6: ALL
7: 5
8: 7-8
9: 6-8
10: 1-2-5
11: 4-6

5x1x2x2x3x2 = 120 x $2 = $240


12th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Empty Handed 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Bold Vindication 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Coronation Day 5-1 9th
Super Add: #1 Lt. John 9-2 8th


13th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #8 Quick Money 5-2 11th
Best Value: #10 Conflicted 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 L. C. Bulgari 5-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Mustang Island 7-2 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

10: 1-2-5-11
11: 4-6-11
12: 5-6
13: 8-9-10

4x3x2x3 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

jms62 06-05-2010 07:30 AM

Steve in the 9th Champagne D' Oro is the 12

Kasept 06-05-2010 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 654263)
Steve in the 9th Champagne D' Oro is the 12

Got it... THX! G/L today..

Kasept 06-05-2010 09:11 AM

Custom for Carlos out of the True North..

Kasept 06-05-2010 09:18 AM

BEL SCR/CHG'S


1ST

1 Gold Prospect Early


3RD

2 (poe) Upper Afleet Early
3 Unprecedented Early
3X Ulterior Motive Early
7 Cheyenne Nation Early
11 Don Cavallo Early
12 Enclosure Early
13 Vision d'Amour Early


4TH

4 Endless Circle Early


5TH

7 Pretty Boy Freud Early
10 Stargleam Early
11 Metulla Early


8TH

2 Custom for Carlos Early
4 Strasbourg Early


9TH

1 Hot Trip Early


12TH

2B Senor Enrico Early
11 Spartan King Early
12 Eagle Strike Early

tdtony 06-05-2010 09:57 AM

steve in the 10th i think strike a deal is the 2

randallscott35 06-05-2010 10:01 AM

Did it rain at BEL last night at all?

lemoncrush 06-05-2010 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 654296)
Custom for Carlos out of the True North..

Oh...there goes my pk 4 single!

Kasept 06-05-2010 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 654308)
Did it rain at BEL last night at all?

Not really.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tdtony (Post 654305)
steve in the 10th i think strike a deal is the 2

Thx Tony...

ninetoone 06-05-2010 03:51 PM

Champagne D'oro....good call Steve.

tigerfan 06-05-2010 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 654260)
Best Value: #12 Champagne d'Oro 30-1

Thank you, Steve. Thank you very much.

intense 06-05-2010 03:51 PM

wow steve great call on the 12, hit the exacta with your pick, thanks much!!!!

DaTruth 06-05-2010 03:54 PM

Great call on the Guillot longshot in the Acorn.

hurricanefrank 06-05-2010 03:55 PM

Thank you Steve! Remarkable call on Champagne D'oro! Your guidance has kept my P4 ticket alive!

knickslions2 06-05-2010 04:02 PM

Thanks Steve I had $5 box exacta 6,8,12 in 9th!! Quick grand!!!

ateamstupid 06-05-2010 04:03 PM

I had $1,000,000 to place on the 12. Should've bet her to win!!

Nice call Steve.

booner 06-05-2010 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 654411)
I had $1,000,000 to place on the 12. Should've bet her to win!!

Nice call Steve.

:tro:

gales0678 06-05-2010 04:14 PM

nice hit steve , everyone who is alive also should send ramon a christmas gift , that was a horrific ride on the chalk

Ronnie 06-05-2010 06:55 PM

Something seemed fishy about today at Belmont.

Kasept 06-05-2010 09:37 PM

Thx Team.. This was a nice one. Glad so many benefited as I started getting texts and Email seconds after she crossed the wire. It turned into the kind of day where one good hit could save or make your day, and she was certainly that. ATR listeners also heard the whole funny backstory behind her too. Will be a memorable race.

Long, circuitous day... Hope all did well. Wednesday's P6 becomes the focus!


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