Derby Trail Forums - 6/4: Belmont Park ($33k C/O); Hollywood Park ($150k C/O)

Mundane-looking Thursday late action at Belmont turned explosive with Sciacca's Piazza Di Spagna, used only as a Super Add second off the winter break, rallying boldly into a slow pace under Rajiv Maragh to score in the 8th at 17-1. Remarkably, with $7+ winners in the 6th and 7th and Toner's 7-1 nightcapper, the late quad paid an outrageous $10.7k ($1). And there is of course a $33k carryover on a delightfully intriguing Belmont Stakes eve card... Hollywood late night carryover as well, and Brad Free and I will analyze it at 6:30p ET tonight on ATR as part of the big preview show..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: 36th Hill Prince (G3), 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD(

Most Likely: #5 Nordic Truce 3-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Krypton 5-1 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #6 Lethal Combination 9-2 3rd

5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Terrific wagering event with interesting 'first turf' contenders and a ML that offers value opp..

Most Likely: #9 Moonbow 5-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Shirley She Can 8-1 WON ($16.80)
Next Best: #1 Voila 6-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Ermine Slippers 5-2 5th

6th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Another dynamite betting heat with maybe 7 of the 10 possible. 12-1 on Micelli 2nd timer a superb 'key' horse with any of the logicals..

Best Value: #9 Salty Doll 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Vaughndidit 7-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Stellaluce 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Maid to Win 5-1 4th

7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Problematic and quirky set with number off erratic players..

Best Value: #9 Loyal Shadow 10-1 WON ($24.60)
Next Best: #3 Blazing Honor 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Mystical Code 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Giuseppina 8-1 5th

8th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Yet another well-balanced and difficult race. KMc gelding appears to have front end advantage on group, but doesn't have to win..

Most Likely: #3 Stormin Bolt 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 LATE SCR
Next Best: #4 Stormy's Majesty 5-1 WON ($7.20)
Super Add: #7 Jimmy Vegas 8-1 4th

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Msjerseyroulette 12-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Lady Valiant 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Valuable Lady 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Our Montana Dream 30-1 8th

10th: 122nd Brooklyn H. (G2), 3+, 12f (Super)

Utterly curious and tough-to-decipher cast for this standard..

Most Likely: #5 American Dance 3-1
Best Value: #6 Stones River 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Eldaafer 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Alcomo 8-1 WON ($21.60)

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 5-9
6: 1-4-7-10
7: 3-8-9
8: 3
9: 2-3
10: 5-6

2x4x3x1x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-5-8-9
8: 3
9: 2-3
10: 1-4-5-6-7-8

6x1x2x6 = $72

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Fantando 1-1 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #3 Iotabgray 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Cookin Expresso 15-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Fionnaur 4-1 8th

4th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Lilly Fa Pootz 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Welken 5-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Prytania 8-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Oui Say Oui 4-1 6th

5th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Warren's Swamp Fox 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Cenizo 5-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Frequent Fame 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Ann's Seven 8-1 WON ($32.60)

6th: Cal-MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 SCR
Best Value: #6 Stick to the Plan 8-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #11 Johnnie Gold 4-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Brianville 8-1 6th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f-T (DD, Super)

Obvious dilemma here is with 7-5 Sister Dawn, who if OK with turf, shouldn't lose..

Most Likely: #3 Sister Dawn 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Full Mandate 4-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Sweet Hanni 3-1 WON ($10.40)

8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #9 Titus Aurelius 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 K K's Bro 15-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Surefire 2-1 WON
Exotics Use: #7 Souvenir Summer 4-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Major Madagan 20-1 7th

<$200 P6 Play:

3: 3-8
4: 2-6
5: 3
6: 2/SCR-6
7: 3-5
8: 1-4-5-6-7-9

2x2x1x2x2x6 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$50 P4 Play:

5: 1-3-5-7
6: 2/SCR
7: 3-5
8: 1-4-5-6-7-9

4x1x2x6 = $48

Good luck!
Steve