Super Savings Indeed
 

Looking over this race it is evident to me you won't get rich but the excitement of a Belmont with a Triple chance seems better than 75% to me. With the defection of HI, and the style of SS, his chances of winning are higher than a 5/2 ML would indicate. He isn't Big Brown or Smarty Jones, but guess what, he doesn't have to be in here. As Davidowitz said yesterday, of the 3 jewels this is easily the most formful and has been of late as well. Don't try and be a hero.

1. Aikenite- Went to a new top in the Trial but he strikes me as a 1 turn horse so that's not surprising. Some would say that means he could pair that effort and he will get a ground saving trip. Looking at his routes though don't give me much hope that this Yes It's True wants to go this far at all. If you think this horse can clunk up for 3rd I wouldn't say no, but he is not a win candidate.

2. Schoolyard Dreams- Ryan is a clever guy and somebody who hits the board 71% with Coa up. That's a 28 horse sample as well. Horse has done nothing but route in his career. Rushed a bit into the Wood facing the best 3 yr old of the year. No shame in his performance. Gets six weeks, draws well. The most likely 2nd place horse in the field.

3. Pleasant Prince- Expecting an even effort after 2 off performances following his biggie in FL. Cooked him, and the rush job by Ramsey was gross. If he was thought of as much he wouldn't have debuted for a tag. If you want a horse who will finish 6th, this is him. Not a win candidate in here.

4. Northern Giant- Feeling here is he is sent along with JB and his last effort was awful. His best efforts aren't fast enough to compete with the top horses in here. Can see him getting run off his feet on the front end and packing it in at the turn. Eased candidate.

5. Yawanna Twist- Numbers say he can figure in here actually but I'm going to play against him. Yonaguska's going routes are not my cup of tea. His effort in IL was better than it looked but American Lion hardly flattered it with his nothing effort in KY. Boring out at the end not a plus either. He shouldn't be 30-1 based on his figs but I don't like him at any price.

6. Jackson Bend- How about a rest? This guy is getting run into the ground and he through in the towel hard core in KY. Yes he tries but what makes you think he can wire this bunch? I don't and I think NG will be sent as well so he has a potential ground loss trip as the speed. No thanks.

7. Lookin At Lucky- He finds trouble. I'm tired of hearing trouble finds him. Maybe he's just not that good. Its not like his 2 yr old races were that fast. And as distance has increased he seems to have stagnated. 3-1 is no bargain on this horse and I think you have to pass on him anywhere above 3rd in here on your tickets. And karma wise, moves like Baffert made upset the Preak On Gods. Garcia is a huge step down. You can have him.

8. Super Saver- The most likely winner at a fair 5/2 if you ask me. Has tactical speed and was actually able to win the Derby without moving up that much, i.e. I don't think he's spent. Remember his first work this year was Jan. 24th and Pletch has said in some ways he has been playing catchup with him the whole time. I am more excited for this race than the Derby. Why? B/c I think he is going to win and win convincingly which helps one of the best days in horse racing at Belmont when a Triple is on the line. I want him to roll. And he should.

9.Caracortado- Hammerin Hank aside, when's the last time that a horse who debuted for a tag at Fairplex won a Crown race. Not happening and he's slow too. Why is he going to move up on the dirt? There is nothing about him that appeals to me and he is an underlay under 20-1. Happy for Paul getting a big mount but he won't get a check.

10. Paddy O'Prado- He ran to his works and training in the slop at CD. Kent did a great job regardless of what people said, he got a 1W 2W trip in a 20 horse field and encountered not a peep of trouble. Guess what, with all that he could muster only 3rd. On a fast track he is a play against in here. I hate his chances to hit the board in here. Back to the turf after this one.

11. First Dude- Has a nice pattern but what scares me is the trip he will get from this spot. His dirt races show a lot of pressing type races and if that's the case he could be 4 or 5 wide around the turn and that isn't going to help since he's not that fast to begin with. Price is right to play in the exotics with him a bit underneath but I'm going to take a stand against him. Value for sure with his line and he is much preferred to Paddy O.

12. Dublin- Ran better than I would've thought in the Derby. 12 spot no help. Gomez helps but this guy just isn't making up ground at the end of routes. I think he needs a rest and a look at the Kings Bishop. That is if Lukas doesn't run him into the ground before then.

1. Super Saver- by daylight
2. Schoolyard Dreams
3. I don't know or care

I think part of the move to Garcia was to get the horse closer to the pace, which will help the horse in this race. I like LAL over SS in a chalky exacta.

No value whatsoever in LAL. He opened up offshore last night as a favorite over SS. That makes no sense to me.

Didn't say I was betting it.

AAI agree 110%, looks like a cold exacta

I wasn't saying that LAL made no sense, just that him being favored over SS made no sense. Just to clarify my cake friend.

That's how I'm playing it, with a small saver on Schoolyard.

who is HI

i'm drawing a blank

Ike

Im having a hard time figuring out the love affair and the world beater status thrust upon Super Saver here. Granted he won the derby, but he also got beat in the Tampa Bay Derby(outgutted), the Arkansas Derby and his first win of the year came on a sloppy nasty track in which I think he took a liking to and it wasn't like he set the track record, they walked in 205. Seems like every other horse was just spinning their wheels, except Ice Box who in my opinion should of won the race. He also won his only stakes victory over the same surface months back(horse for the course). Now we have a track where the surface will be a 180 from what he just ran on and a fast track that he has yet to win on this year. The horse is a gamer and has only been out of the money once in seven starts but the talk of him winning "by daylight" and in a "walkover" like most people on here are saying is nonsense. Nice horse but not a world beater by far and will be exposed in this race.

Randall, you don't really mean 75%, do you? Fair odds of 1 to 3? You can get 3-1 on Super Saver at TheGreek, as you probably know. That would represent an edge of +900% on fair odds of 1 to 3. (You can also get Super Saver at -115 vs LAL, btw).

Well said, thought I would hardly guarantee that he'll "be exposed". I think Super Saver has maybe a 30% chance to win the race. Fair odds are around 5-2, IMO. He deserves to be the favorite, just not an overwhelming fav.

--Dunbar

Yes I do, a slight move forward, came out of the race great and facing tin cans. FYI I bet SS at 3.45-1 when that opened as well as SS against LAL at even money last night....Money is where mouth is.

I have no interest in Schoolyard Dreams. Until he proves he can run a big race on a track other than Tampa, I'll be betting against him. What exactly was his excuse in the Wood? That he isn't fast?

Jackson Bend, I'm leaning towards using. His Derby, like so many others, is a throwout. His workout on Monday indicated that race didn't phase him.
He'll clearly be forwardly placed, and perhaps not a likely win candidate,
fit enough to hit the board for sure.

Jesus.




SportyFans....was it really that hard??

I :{>: Clyde

I like the matchup bet, but still...

I think we can agree that LAL had significant trouble in the first 1/4 mile. After 1/2 mile he was 13.5 lengths behind Super Saver. At the wire he was 7.5 lengths behind Super Saver. It gives me some pause.

btw, Schoolyard Dreams will be racing against more than 6 other horses for the first time in his short career. Never had to deal with a bumping steadying bunch like this. It might not matter, but I give some weight to horses that have had that kind of experience.

--Dunbar

Dun, SD is going to take back though so I don't see where he'll have the same kind of chance for trouble.

DumbBar loves me ,too.

hope you are right but I probably will be cursing BO-REL after the race and tossing my tickets and my lunch

I hear where you are coming from, but his pattern says otherwise and in fact is explosive when it comes to big race performances...That being said, he is not Smarty Jones, but guess what, look at this field and the crop of 3 yr olds at this point. There is very little standing in his way here at all.