Sidney's Candy
 

I was talking with BTW about Derby horses and I told him I'm still interested in possibly looking to play a synthetic horse in this years Derby.

He asks "like who?" ... I make the mistake of responding "a horse like Sidney's Candy" ... this draws the classic BTW full court press onslaught.

Knowing quickly that I have a 0% chance of winning such a debate - and a 100% chance of losing badly ... I go to my 'what would Sun Tzu suggest I do?' card.

I respond by giggling at him a lot and messing with him. This battle will certainly be fought - but on my ground and not his. Typing and photoshop over fast-talking.

I'm pretty confident Sidney's Candy will lose the Santa Anita Derby. Interactif badly outfinished him late in the San Felipe. My hopes are that Talamo takes him off the lead and makes a menacing turn move, but Sidney's Candy fades miserably in the final furlong.

I'm hoping the loss is one that convincingly proves everyones suspicions that Sidney's Candy can't possibly get a Classic distance and can't run his race from off the pace. Yet, somehow doesn't quite discourage the great John Sadler from attempting a start in the Derby like I fear it might.

If Sindey's Candy runs well in the Santa Anita Derby ... I'm FAR less likely to want him in the Derby.

BTW demanded examples of horses who've exited slower paced leads on synthetic and won on the dirt from off the lead.



I gave him the Turf Paradise Derby winner because I know he didn't know the horse and it would annoy him. Synthetic speed and almost hold and speed and fade horses often run surprisingly well when switching back to dirt.

Dirt speed horses are terrible bets in general when switching to synthetic.

Another strong generic angle ... one I'm hoping Sidney's Candy runs to Saturday .. is to look for horses who make menacing moves into contention in synthetic races ... only to come up totally empty in the stretch run. I LOVE horses switching to dirt who are exiting synthetic races when they were totally out of gas in the stretch.

I'm subjected to the bondage of handicapping 800 synthetic races a year - 795 of which for real cheap horses ... but the angle does also hold true with better horses. Rachel Alexandra got a taste recently.




Bottom line is this ... if Sidney's Candy is just off the early lead and looms large on the turn but comes up empty in the stretch. I love him in the Derby against a tremendously weak looking crop.

All of California will give up on him after such a performance.

If Sidney's Candy wins the Santa Anita Derby and/or finishes well with Lookin At Lucky ... in a normal crop you're supposed to HATE him in the Derby. In this tremendously weak one ... you're still forced off of him for the KY Derby.

I don't know what you just said, but I am very confident that whatever happens Saturday, Sidney's Candy has virtually no shot in the Ky Derby.

Given a fair draw, what would your best guess be at his KY Derby odds in the above scenarios?

20-1 to 30-1, he could still be the wise guy type of horse. First time dirt, Saddler, Candy Ride.... He would have a lot of things that people would like.

Wasn't he supposed to, considering that Caracortado made, essentially, the 1st move, wide, giving Interactif pretty much the best possible (inside) trip under the circumstances. What does this prove?

This is priceless. This 'angle' works on all tracks, not just synthetic or primary ones. (Of course, it doesn't work as well on BUSH, BIASED tracks, like the AQU INNER, especially when the racing secretary never changes up on the distances. ) This is why having accurate charts is so important. Someone who understands race flow and has accurate data can pretty much CRUSH the game. Of course, looking at pace/speed figures would tend to get in the way of this.

P.S. what exactly did RA do that Zardana didn't in that race? In fact, Z made the sharper move (and won with it -- yet another 'angle').

First time dirt and Sadler is not a good thing.

NT

Here's what really happened......

I have a monster chest cold, I was lying in bed, trying to enjoy one of my favorite movies, Leaving Las Vegas, and we are just about at the scene where Elisabeth Shue pours booze on her naked breasts ( is there a sexier/more depraved scene in movie history? ) and this doofus calls/interupts me with some drivel about a 2:1 shot in the SA Derby.

I guess I should be happy he didn't bring up the TVG contest.

:tro:

Greatest scene ever...

Right.....and he wonders why I was cranky.

An equivalent personal moment for DrugS is a girl who pays at Subway.

I knew I forgot something.

You're a better man than me. I certainly would have hit the ignore button.

You always dismiss my crazy longshots.

He will be utterly forgotten about.

I think because of Mine That Bird ... a lot of truly hopeless horses will be way overbet this year ... they normally are, but even to a greater extreme this year.

No I don't.

And this is no crazy longshot.

The Giacomo syndrome was already into effect last year.
Agreed, MTB made it much worse.
The Lukas maiden winner that went in the Preakness was 25-1...he should have been 250-1.

Based on what?

Sadler in dirt routes:

2007: 12-for-33 ($4.12 ROI)
2006: 15-for-66 ($1.70 ROI)
2005: 16-for-80 ($3.37 ROI)
2004: 19-for-75 ($2.40 ROI)
2003: 16-for-77 ($2.70 ROI)

2003 to 2007: 92-for-392 (23.5% wins $2.74 ROI)

I should have clarified it a bit more. He's 1 for his last 17 with horses going synth to dirt in stakes races including 0 for his last 14. Coco Belle in the Miss Woodford was his last winner in this category. Perhaps the sample size is a too small but I'm just not sure Sidney's Candy or Dave in Dixie are going to get better on dirt.

NT

if he runs well sat. he will be 7 to 11/1 range....who is to say he wont love churchill.......

I don't want much to do with him if he runs well Saturday.

I think he runs like a dirt horse - just as I think Interactif (who ate into his margin sharply late) runs like a synthetic horse.