HOY Standings Right Now
 

Who is the Top 4 or 5 in your opinion?

lava man
invasor
bernardini
bluegrass cat
barbaro

and the two three year olds still in training have to beat older, pretty much have to win the bcc to get HOY. hell, they probably have to do that to get top 3 yo away from barbaro, who is second to only lava man in earnings this year....

just think what'll happen to the scenario of one of them getting hoy if they both get upset at the travers!

dark horses:
BCC will need to win
Suave
Brother Derek
Flower Alley
Bellamy Road
Sun King

It'll probably be between Invasor, Bernardini and Lava Man.....whichever horse emerges outof the BC Classic with a victory will win it....I'll take Bernardini ecause Lava Man has failed to successfully take his game with him outside of California, and Invasor isn't as good as Bernardini to me...ust two different horses....Bernardini is a rare talent ad it is too bad for Invasor that he picked the wrong year to e a top handicap horse with a 3YO monster like this in the wings....

For me, I think it is going to depend on two things...

If Lava Man is tired and

The pace of the race.

If Lava Man goes 47 or over for the first half, then they are going to have a very hard time catching him. His last quarter of a mile in the Whittingham was unbelievable. 22.9 seconds. I know that it was on turf, but the horse consistently runs very fast last quarter of a miles on the dirt too. If he runs a race like he did in last year's HGC, the horse is going to be very tough to beat even with that monster Bernardini in the race.

However, I really think that it is Bernardini's race to lose. This horse is a freak, and everyone is going to get a wake up call to this horse's true ability this weekend in the Travers. He is the real deal. You know, this thing is almost turning into a War Admiral vs. Seabiscuit kind of thing for me...I know the extent of Bernardini's talent, but on that first Saturday in November, if Lava Man enters the starting gate, I will be rooting for him to kick on, gut it out, show his heart, and win.

I pretty much agree with you, except I would substitute Showing Up for Bluegrass Cat.

showing up has no chance in hell at it. turf still doesn't get the respect, certainly not in hoy voting. he could win the turf and won't win top 3 yo! showing up would have to run in the bcc to get any votes.

i can't say that bernardini is that much better than bluegrass cat. hopefully that question gets answered this wknd, their first matchup. one of those emerges as the top three year old in training, hands down, regardless of showing ups turf prowess.

If the BC was held in California this year, i would say that Lava Man would have a solid shot at winning the Classic and being HOY. But,Lava Man is NOT the same horse outside of California and that has been proven on multiple occasions.

Plus, he likes it tight ad fast and I just know Churchill Downs surface too well to think that he will have an advantage......that stretch is one of the longest in North America and they will make him go faster than 47 for the half-mile in the Classic. As a matter of fact, he won't even make the lead in that race...There will be some kind of cheap speed like always.

I don't like Lava man AT ALL whe and if he comes to Churchill Downs....especially if he is an overlay like he figures to be. I respect and admire the horse but I just don't like him in there, and I think Bernardini is simply a far greater talent.....he's just a better athlete than Lava Man IMO..

Curt,
Now you've gotten me missing Blocky!

I can't possibly give my opinion until I've exchanged about twenty e-mails with him. Be patient.

I'll get back to you...figure the third week of September.

DTS

Lava Man had valid excuses as to why he didn't run well when he shipped. This is also a completely different animal from last year. He is incredibly consistent this year. You are right about the Churchill track though...I didn't take that into consideration. I still think that Lava Man absolutely has a chance to hit the board especially if he isn't tired. He also has proven that he doesn't have to be on the lead to win the race. He just needs to be near it. I mean, face it, besides Bernardini, we don't exactly have any world beaters in this year's BCC. I acknowledge the fact that Bernardini is a complete freak as I said in my post above and many other posts. However, it is horse racing, and anything could happen. I will say this...If Bernardini fires, he wins for fun, but he may not fire.

Showing Up still might run in the BCC. I really could not see him winning it but I could see him winning the Turf Classic and then running in the BCC. He actually would have a better shot a winning the BCC than the BCT. No way he could beat the top europeans but if the BCC had the right pace scenario he could get lucky.

I still think the HOY voting will go Bernardini, Invasor, Lava Man. I give Bright One a small outside chance of winning the BCC but not HOY.

Lava Man
Invasor
Bernardini
Barbaro
Sun King (if he continues to move forward)

I don't think it really matters right now. The BCC is gonna do a lotta splaining Lucy. I do think that Invasor is planted firmly at the top and its his to lose as of now.

Lava Man
Bernardini
Barbaro
Invasor
Gorella (After she wins her Breeders Cup race). (OK that was my heart picking that one.)

If the vote was today, I think it would be Lava Man followed by Invasor.

In order of where I think they rank as of today:

1. Lava Man
2. Invasor
3. Bernardini
4. Barbaro
5. Gorella

How I think they'll finish the year:

1. Bernardini
2. Lava Man
3. Hurricane Run
4. Discreet Cat
5. Invasor

If the vote was mine;

Invasor