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-   -   3/13: GP, TAM, OP (Late P4's); SA (4th-10th); Magna 5 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=34929)

Kasept 03-13-2010 05:56 AM

3/13: GP, TAM, OP (Late P4's); SA (4th-10th); Magna 5
 
GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: 2nd Ocala-FL, F&M-4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Jessica is Back 4-5 WON
Best Value: #8 Glotona 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Sweetsouthernqueen 8-1 4th


9th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Exiled Princess 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #13 Taconic Victory 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 In Perpetuity 7-2 WON
Super Add: #3 Star of the Town 6-1 4th


10th: 66th Gulfstream Park H. (G2), 4+, 1m (DD, Super)

Wild edition of this race with clear Most Likely in 'Phil' but wide open thereafter..

Most Likely: #11 This One's for Phil 9-5 8th
Next Best: #4 Motovoto 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Congressional Page 12-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Grasshopper 15-1 11th


11th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Very difficult nightcap with uncertain turf condition a factor. Mott firster is half to OK Red Birkin and True Birkin, while Shug's Hit It Rich is a half to excellent SW Spanish Mission..

Most Likely: #14 Hey Babe 3-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Arrowcourse 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Hit It Rich 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Very Expensive 10-1 8th


<$50 P4 Play:

8: 4-8
9: 1-3-6-13
10: 4-11
11: 3-4-7-9-10-14

2x4x2x6 = 96 x .50 = $48



TAMPA BAY DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: 12th Hillsborough (G3), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Lady Shakespeare will undoubtedly scratch for perhaps the 4th time this winter.. Doubt race comes off the turf despite the heavy rains yesterday..

SCR #1 Reed entry

Most Likely: #4 Cure for Sale 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Liberally 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Phola 8-1 WON


9th: 27th Florida Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Diva Delite 4-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Cuff Me 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Imaginary Saint 5-1 9th
Super Add: #2 C C's Pal 15-1 2nd


10th: 6th Turf Dash, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

SCR #5 Musket Man

Best Value: #4 Sneaking Uponyou 10-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Probation Ready 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Turfiste 7-2 7th


11th: 30th Tampa Bay Derby (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Surprised this event, which has been a growing Derby Trail season pressence, didn't draw more interest. PL-SH runners from Sam Davis are joined in the gate by serious Pletcher-WinStar product Super Saver and Albertrani-Padua hopeful Odysseus, with some pressure on the latter to step forward..

Most Likely: #6 Super Saver 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Odysseus 7-2 WON
Next Best: #1 Uptowncharleybrown 5-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Schoolyard Dreams 3-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1/SCR-4-6-8
9: 3-4
10: 4-5/SCR-6-9
11: 1-5-6-7

3x2x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36

$0.50 P4 (1,3,5,7,8,10/5,6/4/7) Paid $182.65



OAKLAWN PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: 23rd Honeybee (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Decelerator 5-2 4th
Best Value: #1 No Such Word 5-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Beautician 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #6 Tap Tap Tapping 15-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (1-5) Paid $25.90
$1 Trifecta (1-5-6) Paid $161.80
$1 Superfecta (1-5-6-2) Paid $373.80



9th: OC/N2X, 4+, 8.5f (P3)

Most Likely: #2 Sea Gaze 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #5 Gresham 6-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Follow the Leader 6-5 WON


10th: 50th Rebel (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Get the feeling that Baffert is tinkering with 'Lucky' adding blinks at this juncture to see how early in the race it puts the Juvy Champ. Certainly doesn't have to win in first dirt start, but you don't want to throw a clunker in with little margin for error on the Derby Trail. Probably a smart bet-against within the race.. Pace may be a bit more heated than anticipated, and sense Noble's Promise gets desired stalking trip, while late-running Dublin gets a better target than he had in the Southwest.. Intriguing event..

Most Likely: #6 Noble's Promise 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Lookin At Lucky 7-5 WON
Exotics Use: #7 Dublin 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Un Oh Bango 5-1 4th


11th: MDN CLM, 3-5yo, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Logic 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Corralito's Way 5-2 WON
Best Value: #11 Freedom Camp 8-1 9th
Super Add: #8 Sargent Marv 6-1 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-5-6
9: 2-5-7
10: 2-6-7
11: 9-10

4x3x3x2 = $72

$2 P4 (1/4,7/2/10) Paid $304.10



SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Elegant 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Tashzara 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Kaysa Deeya 8-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Kakalina 8-1 8th


5th: OC/N2X, 4+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Massone 7-2 6th
Best Value: #5 Joshua's Dream 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Mr. Big 6-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Viscount 4-1 3rd


6th: CLM, 4yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 A Royal Tizzy 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 My Man Sumo 3-1 WON
Best Value: #5 The Final Roar 9-2 4th
Super Add: #8 White Lace Jimmy 6-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (1-8) Paid $14.00
$1 Trifecta (1-8-10) Paid $32.00
$1 Superfecta (1-8-10-5) Paid $90.30



7th: 73rd Santa Margarita (G1), F&M-4+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Zenyatta 1-9 WON
Best Value: #5 Striking Dancer 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Pretty Unusual 12-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Floating Heart 12-1 3rd


8th: Cal-OC/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Top Feeling 5-1 WON
Best Value: #1a Warrens Attack Cat 15-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Pinstripe Kid 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Adam Suances 8-1

$1 Exacta (6-10) Paid $78.50


9th: 73rd San Felipe (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Very tough to seperate the top ones, but Sidney's Candy can get the easy lead and waltz them around the oval..

Most Likely: #5 Sidney's Candy 3-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Caracortado 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 American Lion 4-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Interactif 4-1 2nd


10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #9 Tribul Witch 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Joint Agreement 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #13 Good Night Gyrene 5-1
Exotics Use: #11 Racing Rachel 8-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Lacey Leilah 8-1 4th


<$100 P6 Play:

5: 5-9
6: 10
7: 8
8: 1-6-10
9: 2-4-5-7
10: 7-9

2x1x1x3x4x2 = 48 x $2 = $96


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 8
8: 1-6-10
9: 2-4-5-7
10: 2-7-8-9-11-13

1x3x4x6 = $72



MAGNA 5


PRE-SCRATCHES


LEG A-LAUREL 10th: CLM, 4+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #6 Saay Mi Name 6-1 4th
Most Likely: #10 Dukes Flying Tiger 9-2 8th
Next Best: #1 Vincero 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Ijada's Run 8-1 3rd


LEG B-SANTA ANITA 4th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Elegant 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Tashzara 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Kaysa Deeya 8-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Kakalina 8-1 8th


LEG C-GULFSTREAM 9th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Exiled Princess 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #13 Taconic Victory 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 In Perpetuity 7-2 WON
Super Add: #3 Star of the Town 6-1 4th


LEG D-GOLDEN GATE 4th: CLM, 4+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Dangerous Devil 7-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Moscato 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Hunter Creek 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Camisado 9-2 8th


LEG E-SANTA ANITA 5th: OC/N2X, 4+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Massone 7-2 6th
Best Value: #5 Joshua's Dream 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Mr. Big 6-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Viscount 4-1 3rd


<$100 & <$200 Magna 5 Play:

A: 6-10 (1-7)
B: 4-6
C: 1-6-13
D: 1-2-6-7
E: 5-9

2x2x3x4x2 = $96
4x2x3x4x2 = $192


Good luck!
Steve

Bigsmc 03-13-2010 05:58 AM

That's an ambitious list Steve.

Good luck today.

Kasept 03-13-2010 06:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc
That's an ambitious list Steve.

Good luck today.

You too MC.. Now that I'm not driving downstate, I can take my time with it too.

Bigsmc 03-13-2010 09:15 AM

So far....
 
Race: 1Changes
#6 Personal Edge Scratched - Veterinarian
#11 Special Tiger Scratched - Also-Eligible
#12 We Have a Problem Scratched - Also-Eligible

Race: 3Changes
#8 Livalicious Scratched - Veterinarian
#14 Chinasmoke Scratched - Re-entered

Race: 4Changes
Course - Turf changed to Dirt
#4 Baronshill Scratched - Off-Turf
#5 Voodoo Swinge Scratched - Off-Turf
#8 Royale Scratched - Off-Turf
#9 Fortissi More Scratched - Off-Turf
#12 Auntruthie'ssecret Scratched - Trainer

Race: 5Changes
#3 Flash Jordan Scratched - Veterinarian

Race: 6Changes
#3 Wedding Fever Scratched - Veterinarian

Race: 8Changes
#3 Tottie (GB) Scratched - Trainer 9:59 AM ET
#5 Little B Rosson Scratched - Trainer 10:19 AM ET
#7 Mushka Scratched - Trainer 10:39 AM ET
#10 Lady Shakespeare Scratched - Trainer 9:59 AM ET


Race: 9Changes
#5 She Be Wild Scratched - Trainer

Race: 10Changes
#10 Hold the Salt Scratched - Trainer

Race: 12Changes
#7 Leading On Scratched - Trainer
#10 Vanquisher Scratched - Trainer

declansharbor 03-13-2010 09:45 AM

Is there any insight as to why Attfield scratches Lady Shakespeare out of every race she's entered, or is it coiincidence? thanks in advance

northeastbound123 03-13-2010 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor
Is there any insight as to why Attfield scratches Lady Shakespeare out of every race she's entered, or is it coiincidence? thanks in advance

since the streak started she has been drawn outside everytime

Kasept 03-13-2010 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor
Is there any insight as to why Attfield scratches Lady Shakespeare out of every race she's entered, or is it coiincidence? thanks in advance

It's hysterical Mike.. She draws the 11, 13, 14 holes EVERY time, and Attfield takes a pass.

Kasept 03-13-2010 10:53 AM

Mushka and Little B are SCR's from the Hillsborough now...

GP FULL SCR/CHG'S

Current Track Conditions: Dirt: Good Turf: Off Turf

Current Weather Conditions
Partly Cloudy
Wind SE at 6 mph Temperature 72°F
Humidity 87%
Forecast: Scattered T-storms 90%


Race: 8 Changes Time Posted
#3 With Moms Blessing Scratched - Trainer 11:24 AM ET
#7 Fearless Leader Scratched - Trainer 11:24 AM ET

Race: 9 Changes Time Posted
#2 Sparky's Dream Scratched - Off-Turf 11:24 AM ET
#5 Rhys Scratched - Off-Turf 11:24 AM ET
#7 Agapantha Scratched - Off-Turf 11:24 AM ET
#9 Caminadora Scratched - Off-Turf 11:24 AM ET
#10 Lakeside Chapel Scratched - Off-Turf 11:24 AM ET
#11 Blasted Scratched - Off-Turf 11:24 AM ET
#12 Court Gown (IRE) Scratched - Off-Turf 11:24 AM ET
#14 Three Inthe Kitty Scratched - Off-Turf 11:24 AM ET

Race: 11 Changes Time Posted
#1 Mesa Fresca Jockey - Javier Castellano changed to Alan Garcia 11:24 AM ET
#2 Romantic Song Scratched - Off-Turf 11:24 AM ET
#5 Little Red Rider Scratched - Off-Turf 11:24 AM ET
#6 Cindy's Joy Scratched - Off-Turf 11:24 AM ET
#8 Desert Witch Scratched - Off-Turf 11:24 AM ET
#15 Bail Out Kitten Scratched - Off-Turf 11:24 AM ET
#16 Honest Gold Scratched - Off-Turf 11:24 AM ET

OAKLAWN SCR/CHG'S


SA SCR/CHG'S

walocke1@msn.com 03-13-2010 12:03 PM

#14
 
did you mean to delete the 14 from the P4 at GulfStream?

Kasept 03-13-2010 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by walocke1@msn.com
did you mean to delete the 14 from the P4 at GulfStream?

Thanks... No! Became top pick with race OTT. These changes are such a pain...

MaTH716 03-13-2010 04:29 PM

Good luck with this pick 4 at Tampa Steve. Bring it home.

Bogey 03-13-2010 04:52 PM

Steve, Congrats on the Tampa PK4 - Nice call on Sneaking Uponyou

dagolfer33 03-13-2010 04:52 PM

Grunder did it AGAIN in the biggest race of the year. Unbelievable.:zz: :zz:

MaTH716 03-13-2010 05:00 PM

Nice job Steve-O! Should of had double that with the 5 winning. I still can't believe the 7 got up. Reguardless, great job!

Kasept 03-13-2010 05:05 PM

Thx all.. The money might have been better with Schoolyard but I have a bit of a rooting interest for Odysseus. Wild race, and while it likely comes back a little slow, this is obviously a VERY talented horse. Albertrani has some work to do in the mornings, but Satish has a Derby horse.

hoovesupsideyourhead 03-13-2010 05:09 PM

nice job at tampa steve..

Kasept 03-13-2010 05:39 PM

Royal Express at 45-1 is a crazy price in the Rebel. Suggest using underneath at the least..

Kasept 03-13-2010 05:53 PM

What does Noble's Promise have to do to win one of these photos with Looking at Lucky?

mm1019 03-13-2010 06:15 PM

Great Job Today Steve...The Photo in the Tampa bay derby cost me a bag of Money I'm still in shock but I'm happy for SS

Kasept 03-13-2010 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mm1019
Great Job Today Steve...The Photo in the Tampa bay derby cost me a bag of Money I'm still in shock but I'm happy for SS

Thx Mike.. It's been a good day so far. Oaklawn quad was a nice producer to make up for the Tampa shortfall from how the photo turned out... but as you said, happier for the winner than I would be for the other. Would have liked to have gotten the Warren horse third at SA just now... G/L if you're still playing!


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