11/25: Churchill ($75k C/O)
 

More or less as anticipated, the Churchill carryover wasn't worth trying Tuesday as the sequence went un-hit again... The winners of the first 5 ranged from obvious to hardly impossible with totes of $11.00, $12.80, $6.80, $16.40 and $4.60. Overlaid Yore ($54) busted up the plays of many in the nightcap, and even that Scooter Dickey entry number, whom I included as 'High 5 Play' 5th choice, wasn't completely outlandish. I wasted $72 on an action bet and was out after the first leg, the silly $30k Maiden Claiming race that went to Ralph Nicks' 9-2 Brittany Goes West. Did manage to catch an overlay exotic in the 6th with Countus in Mon from Dave Kassen keying a $230 tri. That helped defray the day's losses. Hope you did OK and are willing to try again today with the sextet just as tricky!

ATR starts to preview the Holiday Stakes action today on SiriusXM... We're off Thanksgiving Day, but back Friday 4-7pm EST with the Top Flight from Aqueduct and the Clark Day action from Churchill as well as more capping of the big weekend!


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 First to Know 9-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Atomic Force 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Polished 3-1 WON
Super Add: #2 Hardknockinbillie 10-1 4th


6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Tally Up 5-2 5th
Best Value: #8 Chaffee John 20-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Shilah 6-1 WON
Super Add: #3 Native Tongue 10-1 7th


7th: ALW/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

As discussed last night on ATR, interesting N2L ALW with a couple of big fig dirt winners (#3 Jerry Barry Jack and #10 Harmony Landing) trying the lawn. Both are 10-1 with the #3 obviously drawn more ideally. Tough call but worth keying at least the insider at the number..

Best Value: #3 Jerry Barry Jack 10-1 7th
Most Likely: #8 Justy 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Whitely 7-2 WON
Super Add: #10 Harmony Landing 10-1 6th


8th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 St. Rose 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Southern Tenacity 5-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Rising Barometer 5-2 WON
Super Add: #8 Runway Star 12-1 6th


9th: OC/N3X, F*M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 SCR
Most Likely: #1 Brezing Rain 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Sheltered 5-1 WON
Super Add: #7 Secret Kin 5-1 5th


10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #9 Eris 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Cherokee Star 6-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Ride On Josephine 5-2 WON
Exotics Use: #2 Cutting Edge 8-1 10th
High 5 Play: #1 Outside 10-1 4th


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 4-6
6: 1
7: 3-4-6-8-9-10
8: 5-9
9: 1-4-7
10: 9

2x1x6x2x3x1 = 72 x $144


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-6-8-9-10
8: 5-9
9: 1-4-7
10: 2-3-8-9

6x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

RACE 5 - PICK SIX BEGINS / SIX-DAY CARRYOVER $75,749

NO CHANGES


RACE 6

Jockey Overweight #6 Monster Drive - +4

SCRATCH AE #13 Protectorofallevil

SCRATCH AE #14 Quite Acceptable

SCRATCH AE #15 Royal Field


RACE 7 - LATE PICK 4 BEGINS (50-CENT MINIMUM WAGER)

SCRATCH #5 Rockin Rod

SCRATCH #7 Broganville

AE #1A Avenstoke will run


RACE 8

SCRATCH #1A All in my Way (part of entry, #1 Nurse Donna will run)

SCRATCH #4 Safe


RACE 9

SCRATCH #5 Ten Lil Indians


RACE 10 - SUPER HI-5/ NO CARRYOVER

NO CHANGES

$170k carryover with the 1,4,7,10. Everyone else pays out.

Then I expect a carryover.

There's something I don't ever recall having happened... 6 straight third choices. Pretty crazy.

I think I will be playing your 'next best' choices tomorrow.:D