Derby Trail Forums - 11/24: Churchill ($42k C/O)

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11/24: Churchill ($42k C/O)

Despite having been moved to Rick Dutrow's barn, couldn't find enough reason to include $22 Helsinki Sunday in the Aqueduct 8th which sunk the shot at a carry conso. Also needed to have $19 Mr. Vegas (Super Add) higher up the pecking order in the 7th... Despite falling short Sunday, the liberal $11k P6 payoff (with two virtual singles to start the sequence), and the outrageous $3,432k P3 (6th-8th) and $3,100 P4 show again why the multi-race wager is the place to be. Hope you did OK.

Huge week of racing starts early Tuesday with Churchill producing another 'real' carryover of $42k. The sextet is VERY challenging however and may be a 'watch and wait' day knowing that a lot of serious action lies ahead Thursday-Sunday.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Very little to go on with this group..

Best Value: #5 Lady of the Manor 5-1 6th
Most Likely: #8 Late SCR
Next Best: #12 Neighborhood House 7-2 9th
Super Add: #3 Nasty Girl Blues 12-1 5th

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Highly volatile bunch with form and surface issues galore..

Most Likely: #8 Simone 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Island Lioness 12-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Countus in Mon 4-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Deputy Damsel 12-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (7-4) Paid $44.80
$1 Trifecta (7-4-8) Paid $230.20

7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Why Tonto 4-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Sam P. 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Silver Mountain 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Mr Maccool 10-1 6th

8th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Dr. Rythym 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Gentleman Scholar 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Cliff's Gold 8-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Fast Draw 6-1 WON

9th: ALW/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Cruisin'nthebridle 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Queen of Victory 12-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Aaroness 5-2 WON
Super Add: #2 Bandora 5-1 8th

10th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #6 Baku Breeze 5-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Trois Desir 6-1 11th
Next Best: #8 Soda Jerk 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Heliecat 3-1 2nd
High 5 Play: #1 (POE) Yore 12-1 WON

$1 Exacta (1-10) Paid $116.70
$1 Trifecta (1-10-8) Paid $540.20
$.10 Superfecta (1-10-8-6) Paid $192.75

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 3-5-(8/SCR)-12
6: 1-8
7: 3-6-8
8: 6
9: 7-10
10: 6-7

1x2x5x1x5x2 = 100 x $2 = $200

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-6-8-9
8: 1-2-6
9: 2-7-9-10
10: 6-7-8

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

CD P6 SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing...rogram-changes

Main Track: FAST

Turf Course: FIRM (Lane 2, 15 feet off the hedge)

RACE 5 - PICK SIX BEGINS / FIVE-DAY CARRYOVER $42,351

SCRATCH #2 Eagle Putt

Jockey Change #5 Lady of the Manor - Fabio Arguello Jr.

SCRATCH AE #13 Santana Woman

SCRATCH AE #14 Stringalong

AE #15 Ice Mist will run

SCRATCH AE #16 Silver Dowery

RACE 6
Overweight #3 Emerald Gal +1

Jockey Change #9 Jo Bananas - E.T. Baird

SCRATCH #10 Wild Bushrose

Overweight #11 Miss Amplified +2

RACE 7 - LATE PICK 4 BEGINS (50-CENT MINIMUM WAGER)

Jockey Change #6 Why Tonto - Chris DeCarlo

SCRATCH #7 Jamaludin

RACE 8

SCRATCH AE #13 Classic Wager

SCRATCH AE #14 Protectorofallevil

SCRATCH AE #15 Celaya

RACE 9

SCRATCH #6 Cover Story

Jockey Change #7 Cruisin 'nthebridle - Shaun Bridgmohan

AE #11 Mimi's Special Six will run

SCRATCH AE #12 Passion Du Coeur

SCRATCH AE #13 P.S. I Love You

SCRATCH AE #14 Zister

SCRATCH AE #15 Middlemarch (main track only)

RACE 10 - SUPER HI-5/ NO CARRYOVER

SCRATCH AE #2B Smiling Doc (part of entry, #2 Great Catch will run)