11/22: Aqueduct ($44k C/O)
 

Took offbeat approaches to the P4 opps Saturday, and bad structure cost me a particularly big payoff at Aqueduct. There were a few premises going into the sequence including seeming certainty Academy Run in the 9th, a likely winner in the Discovery in Gone Astray, a wide open turf ALW in the 7th and a confusing MSW in the 6th.

Tried a $2 6x6x1x1 gambit looking to survive the 6th and catch a price in the 7th. But the MSW turned out to be straightforward, and going wide there proved costly when plausible Haynesfield upset Gone Astray in the feature. Codeword ($40) had ideally juiced up the skien in 7th, so when Academy Run came through to end the day, a $2,276 Pick 4 prize was waiting for game gauntlet goers. That was a fine reward for the sequence.

At Churchill, the AE draw-in upsetter Flavor ($39.60) quashed my pressing try of what looked like a very chalky quartet. To be honest, at least to me, the $444 P4 return doesn't seem worth the kind of investment it would have taken to get the Joe Woodard trainee on your ticket after $5 Jackpot Joanie, $3.40 Custom for Carlos and $9.40 Acoma.

So all in all, a frustrating Saturday... Hope you did OK despite my miscues. $44,700 carryover at the Big A Sunday which is my focus... There is a $21k sextet pot building at Churchill too.


AQUEDUCT


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Wild News 9-5 WON ($2.90)
Best Value: #6 Victoria Lynn 12-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Capitalism at Risk 4-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Seville 6-1 8th


5th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Idle Gossip 8-5 WON ($2.70)
Best Value: #5 Triple Double Kidd 12-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Picnic Rock 3-1 7th
Super Add: #11 Out Nice Them 5-1 5th


6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Early Argument 6-1 6th
Most Likely: #4 Thousand Excuses 5-1 5th
Next Best: #10 One Nice Cat 3-1 WON ($9.90)
Exotics Use: #12 Johannesburg Smile 8-1 4th


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Paniolo 5-1 7th
Best Value: #2 See the U.S.A. 10-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Trippo 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Mr. Vegas 15-1 WON ($19.20)


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Stevil 3-1 5th
Best Value: #7 East End Trap 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Brady Baby 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Free Country 5-1 9th


9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Lady's Wish 3-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Dr Paula Moynahan 5-1
Exotics Use: #1e Rice entry 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Mynia 15-1


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 3
5: 10
6: 3-4-5-6-10-12
7: 2-4
8: 7-8
9: 1-3-6-10

1x1x6x2x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5-10-12
7: 2-4
8: 7-8
9: 1-3-6-10

4x2x2x4 = $64


Good luck!
Steve

AQU ACR/CHG'S:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp

FAST & SOFT


5TH

13 Jen's Dream Early
14 Big City Woman Early
15 Green Arrows Early
16 Mia's Blaze Early


6TH

1 (poe) Long Island Louie Early
2 Artifice Early
9 My Friend Sandy Early


7TH

1A Golly Day Early
7 Idol Image Early
11 Middle of the Nite Early


9TH

2B Worth a Shot Early
11 Lovely Promise Early
12 Maria's Moon Early
13 Dear Contender Early
14 Stayawaystella Early

People must not realize this 2nd race is off the turf, this 14 is an overlay IMO.

$20W 14
$5QU 11,14

Good Luck!

Damn, right idea, wrong horse. :mad:

pic 6 on the cheap
 

3/10/6,10/1,4/5,8/3,6

gl all

Don't know about anyone else but Stevil absolutely killed me since I singled race 8 in every one of my bets. Killer. It's a shame too because I had Mr. Vegas in most of my bets for race 7.

I used Stevil, Brady Baby and East End Tap, thought I had it covered. Juan Rodriguez must be one helluva trainer to get a performance like that out of Helsinki:rolleyes:

Juan Rodriguez is Rick Dutrow Jr's assistant. Helsinki was actually first time Dutrow. I ignored that when I made my wagers and ended up ripping tickets too.

I was being sarcastic. I know who Juan Rodriguez is, looking back at it now (and most importantly, knowing that he WON), I guess he should have been my 4th choice in that race, but even The Amazing Kreskin would have had trouble including him.