11/11: Aqueduct (P4); Churchill (C/O)
 

Hope everyone enjoyed Cup and did well. As feared, Saturday was much more difficult to negotiate than Friday, though using Furthest Land in P3's helped keep Day Two give backs to a minimum. Overall, it was a profitable weekend, and I hope the ATR guest list leading up to Cup and the selection suggestions helped you score. Back to the day-to-day prospecting with Churchill, Aqueduct abnd later this week Hollywood as the targets. Good quality action at the Big A and a $20,000 carryover at 4th and Central today in fact...


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Siren's Call 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Pleasant Sister 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Autumnlady 3-1 WON
Best Value: #7 First and Foremost 12-1 10th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Crazy Catlady 7-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Paraiba 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Gran Appeal 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1e McLaughlin entry 4-1 7th/9th


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Sky's the Limit 8-5 6th
Best Value: #6 Rodman 5-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Well Positioned 3-1 2nd


9th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Will protect against ML choice #10 Bishop of Nola (5-2) in multis, but he's a bad favorite.. Watch to see if either of the deep AE's draw in. Either are preferable to Bishop of Nola..

Most Likely: #7 Thunder Chief 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Joba 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Kuggerand 4-1 WON
Super Add: #6 Tom Kitten 8-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (3-7) Paid $26.25
$1 Trifecta (3-7-6) Paid $112.50


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-9
7: 1-3-4-6-8
8: 7
9: 3-5-6-7-10

3x5x1x5 = $75



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Yikes 3-1 WON
Best Value: #12 Pennyroyal 6-1 11th
Next Best: #4 Chubby 4-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Baby My Darlin' 5-1 7th


6th: ALW/N1X, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Afleet Maggi 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Reversed On Appeal 10-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Silent Candy 8-1 10th
Super Add: #10 Oscar de La Thorn 10-1 3rd


7th: CLM, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Home Field 5-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Stamp 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Myroslaw 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Gresham 8-1 2nd


8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Pick and Pray 2-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Darlin' Diane 10-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Honor Hymn 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Edacious Reality 8-1 4th


9th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Tight Precision 4-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Banker's Choice 7-2 10th
Best Value: #5 True Birkin 6-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Phola 5-1 2nd


10th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #7 Foolish Promise 10-1 3rd
Most Likely: #3 Tricky Chief 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Dr. Rythym 6-1 WON
Super Add: #13 (AE) SCR
High 5 Play: #5 Sun Button 6-1 11th

$1 Exacta (9-3) Paid $65.90
$1 Trifecta (9-3-7) Paid $331.00
$1 Pick 3 (9-10-9) 3 Correct Paid $103.20


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 10-12
6: 2-5-7
7: 4-5-8-10
8: 4-9
9: 10
10: 3-7

2x3x4x2x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-5-8-10
8: 2-3-4-6-9-10
9: 10
10: 3-7-9

4x6x1x3 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

Here's to hoping we see something special from Sky's the Limit today at Aqueduct, who I think might be a nice horse.

NT

Steve, Race 7 at Aqueduct you leave the 4 and 9 right out of the number? Is there any reassons your against these 2? Im asking because Im playing the 7-9 pick 3 and those 2 horses are my 2 A's and actually the only 2 that Im going to use.

I can understand that... Paracaidas is definitely OK and I looked long and hard at her. Was less intrigued by Dawn Chorus who is in with a chance from a tough slot but has Ramon. I'd take Lisa B before Dawn Chorus. I don't see how you can leave Crazy Catlady off.

It's a terrific race...

If you're using Dawn Chorus you're assuming Ramon individually is going to move her up a great deal. Tactically she's in no man's land with an outside draw stretching out. She's a terrible play at anything less than 10-1 IMO considering the expected race flow.

NT

Im guessing she will be around 10-1... Part of the reasson Im using her, value and possible upside still. I think Mott is going to be tough in the 8th, and that makes everything chalky.

AQU SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp



6TH

1 (poe) Rosary Beads Early
2 (poe) Kim Karakorum Early
8 Cottage Industry Early
10 Mia's Blaze Early


7TH

2B Imandra Early
10 Selene's Delight Early
11 Granted Tiger Early


8TH

1A El Real Madrid Early


9TH

1 Holy Ego Early
1A Fortunate Run Early
12 D'argento Early
13 Thundering Roar Early
14 Eire's Run Early
15 Neversaywhen Early

CD SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing...rogram-changes


RACE 5 - PICK SIX BEGINS - SIX-DAY CARRYOVER $21,099

SCRATCH AE #13 Margaret Pride

SCRATCH AE #14 Neveah's Song

SCRATCH AE #15 Rare Nugget

SCRATCH AE #16 Fearful Woman

LATE WORKOUT #5 Studio One - Nov. 5, Highpointe Training Center, 3F in :37, breezing


RACE 6

SCRATCH AE #11 Egyptian Charmer

SCRATCH AE #12 Fallseed

SCRATCH AE #13 Valsa

SCRATCH AE #14 Offlee Funny

SCRATCH AE #15 Quick Breeze (entered for main track only)

JOCKEY CHANGE #9 Ledge's Monarchos will be ridden by Sal Gonzales, Jr.


RACE 7 - LATE PICK 4 BEGINS (50-CENT MINIMUM WAGER)

SCRATCH #7 Luv Gov


RACE 8

NO CHANGES


RACE 9

SCRATCH AE #1A Magical Theater (#1 Abuela will run)

SCRATCH AE #11 Kentucky Peaches

SCRATCH AE #12 Midnight Crush

SCRATCH AE #13 War Echo (entered for main track only)


RACE 10 - SUPER HI-5

SCRATCH AE #13 Chaffee John

SCRATCH AE #14 Time to Play

SCRATCH AE #15 Restless City

SCRATCH AE #16 Variant

Ok here is more of a real case for Dawn Chorus. Pull up the chart from her last race, very slow pace... The horses who were 2,3,1 early ran 1,2,3 around the track. Dawn was second to last early and ran a bit at the end. 2 back at Saratoga I bet her and she had a nightmare trip with NO RUNNING ROOM AT ALL. You really need to watch the replay to realize how shut off she was. Clearly shes going to have to pull a trip under Ramon and like the stretchout, but I beleive its possible.

I think she's a closing sprinter.

NT