10/25: Keeneland ($254k C/O); Belmont (Closing Day P4)
 

Keeneland P6 pool continues to overflow after $29, $32 and $48 winners derailed tickets, resulting in Sunday's $254,603 jackpot. The good news on the day was pointing out Rahystrada ($32 as Race 8 Best Value 2nd choice) and Satans Quick Chick ($48.80 as Raven Run Best Value 2nd choice) who combined for a $218 Double; a $781 P3 with 7th race top tab Heart Butte; and a $982 P3 with nightcap High 5 Player Striking Dancer. I had Striking Dancer just off the $72 3x4x3x4 .50 P4 ticket, but those that may have smartly included McPeek's runoff winner received a $3,036 payoff. Hope you did well!


KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Richland Creek 7-2 6th
Best Value: #10 Cape San Blas 8-1 WON
Next Best: #7 King of Speed 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 U D Ghetto 12-1 9th


5th: CLM, F*M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #11 Aronia 7-2 3rd-DH
Best Value: #1 Star Over Malibu 10-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Salty Wave 5-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Daguerreotype 6-1 11th


6th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult group to decipher..

Most Likely: #1 Medjool 5-2 4th
Best Value: #5 My Happiness 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Quite a Handful 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Jacks Again 5-1 6th


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #11 Donna Getyourgun 5-2 WON
Best Value: #6 La Gran Bailadora 12-1 11th
Next Best: #9 Baby Sister 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Aregulationhottie 10-1 6th


8th: 18th Dowager (L), F&M-3+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Winter View 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Black Mamba 8-5 WON
Best Value: #2 Caprice 8-1 4th
Super Add: #9 SCR


9th: CLM, 3yo, 7f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #11 Runway West 5-1 5th
Most Likely: #2 Hot Escapade 5-2 WON
Next Best: #10 Shanes Gold 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Devil Approved It 7-2 3rd
High 5 Play: #6 Pound the Rock 15-1 6th


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-7-8-10
5: 1-3-11
6: 1-5
7: 6-11
8: 1-11
9: 11

4x3x2x2x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-4-5-6
7: 1-6-7-9-11
8: 1-2-11
9: 2-11

5x5x3x2 = 150 x .50 = $75

$0.50 Pick 4 Paid $88.50



BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: The Vision, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Compelled to play against 3-1 ML fave #9 Krypton who will be looking to go coast to coast..

Most Likely: #5 Dean's Kitten 7-2 WON
Best Value: #7 Shrimp Dancer 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Imaging 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Mr. Vegas 10-1 8th

$1 Exacta (5-3) Paid $29.25
$1 Trifecta (5-3-7) Paid $346.00


7th: 29th Ticonderoga-NYB, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Familiar competitors line up here in what is always an insanely well-matched group..

Most Likely: #5 You Go West Girl 4-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Love Cove 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Nehantic Cat 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Chestoria 4-1 4th

$1 Exacta (5-7) Paid $57.50
$1 Trifecta (5-7-4) Paid $163.00
$1 Daily Double (5-5) Paid $51.00
$1 Superfecta (5-7-4-2) Paid $388.00


8th: The Wings of Jove, 2yo-F, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #1 Magic Appeal 5-1 2nd
Most Likely: #3 Female Drama 5-2 WON
Next Best: #7 Simply Spiteful 7-2 3rd

$1 Exacta (3-1) Paid $10.10
$1 Trifecta (3-1-7) Paid $31.50


9th: 31st Mohawk-NYB, 3+, 9f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #10 Banrock 7-5 WON
Best Value: #12 My Man Lars 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Hangingbyathread 8-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Pennington 7-2 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-5-7-8-9
7: 2-4-5-7
8: 1
9: 1-10-12

6x4x1x3 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

I don't like Black Mamba at all today, that turf is gonna have some give in it and I wouldn't be surprised if they scratch. Her race at Arlington was putrid (softer ground). Thinks she needs California firm for her to be her best

1st - $50000 D/D 8 with all

BEL SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp


FAST/SOFT


6TH

2B Fenway Faithful Early
3X Precipice Trail Early
6 Thunder Brew Early
10 Navy Lieutenant Early


7TH

9 Raffie's Treasure Early
14 Nedjma Early
15 Vivi's Book Early


8TH

6 Romantic Hideaway Early NO SUPERFECTA


9TH

1A Pegasian Early
13 Bestowed Early
14 Dantastic Early
15 Spa City Fever Early

KEE SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.keeneland.com/racing/List...lItemsalt.aspx


Sunday, October 25, 2009 10:00 AM
The Polytrack is fast
The turf course is yielding
The rail is down


4th Race
#2--Richland Creek-- (LA) Lasix Adjunct
#4--Incalzando--SCRATCH

5th Race -- NO CHANGES

6th Race -- NO CHANGES

7th Race
#5--Starlite Starbrite--SCRATCH
#6--La Gran Bailadora--No hind shoes

8th Race -- Rood & Riddle Dowager -- NO CHANGES

9th Race
#7--Century Gold--Jockey change to Chris Emigh

The problem I have with the Keeneland yielding turf, is that with the sand base, it is a different yielding than what you see at most turf courses. Sand tightens up when it is wet, so I don't think it is a giving as say Belmont, Churchill or AP's turf when they are yielding.

My initial observation is the same as yours, but I'm not ready to completely leave her off my ticket yet. The Scavulator is smoking on this one. I can't remember making more changes to my tickets in the hours leading up to the races as I have today.

You can single Winter View....

I need to single Winter View so I can afford to play this thing.

Now that you have mushed....

Then I mushed the hell out of Cool Clue also :)

That 11 horse in the race before is a potential single. For an Ian Wilkes horse to run like that first out, well, that horse could explode today. His horses are NEVER cranked first out, never, and always show a 5th beaten 7 lengths first line.

Some nice looking firsters in there. The 1 got squeezed back to last and made a nice middle move at SAR in a very tough MSW (next out Frizette winner and Katy Now just won at Kee last week) so her tiring in the stretch is forgivable....no single in this one for me.

Tim Thorton breeder?

Donna Getyourgun is a really good horse I think....

That hurt....

Very nice call on this one. I know she was a favorite but still good recognition as a single. I think she is much better than what she even showed today. That was an extremely confident ride by Leparoux, he knew he had the best horse and was very patient.

I never bet based on others selections, but your point on running so well first time out for a trainer that usually doesn't have them ready was an angle I had not thought of and helped me cash. Thank you.

"Stone Cold Superfecta Steve" in BEL 7th... excellent job! Plus, sweet trifecta in BEL 6th. Too bad Belmont closed today... :rolleyes: