9/30: Belmont & Santa Anita (6th-9th)
 

Terrific racing on both coasts Wednesday as Belmont kicks off Jockey Club Gold Cup Week and the Oak Tree at Santa Anita-Breeders' Cup Meet opens. Middle double of late Elmont P4 is particularly salty with deep filly and mare ALW in the 7th leading up to outstanding overnight stake 8th which could easily be a Gr. III.

At Arcadia, the 6th features a serious cast of 2yo boys going a mile on the lawn, and many in the lineup are connected to well known siblings: #1 Quietly Waiting (Kid Grindstone); #7 Erbeia (Olmodavar); #8 Recap (After Market, Courageous Cat); #10 Saintly Seoul (Rush Bay); #13-AE Take a Hard Look (Dynamist). The Gr. III Morvich has its' last 2 winners (Get Funky, California Flag) and the defending BC Turf Sprint hero (Desert Code).

Hope you did well Sunday where I made a nice run at the Belmont carryover and hit some nice bingos including $19 Solvent. Should be a fun day, and it's going to be a super week with the major action moving to a new level this weekend.


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Peacefields 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Shareholder's Dues 6-1 WON
Best Value: #9 Eddie's Point 30-1 6th
Super Add: #5 We Get It 20-1 3rd


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Top notch assembly of ALW fillies and mares, and after the Mott import, will try to work some square prices into the mix..

Best Value: #9 One in a Romp 10-1 4th
Most Likely: #3 Changing Skies 3-1 WON
Next Best: #1 (POE) Minishaft 6-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Proud Lisa 15-1 3rd


8th: Mr. Right, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Rising Moon 3-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Honour Devil 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Timber Reserve 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Coal Play 2-1 4th


9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Private Battle 3-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Naughty Kitty 8-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Justinline 8-1 10th
Super Add: #11 Belonged to Sy 10-1 9th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-10
7: 1-3-9
8: 1-3-6-8
9: 1-2-10

Total: 4x3x2x3 = $72 $1 P4 Paid $77.75


<$75 TicketMaker Multi-Play Style:

1 $2.00 pick 4: 4,10 with 1,9 with 3 with 1,2 $16.00

2 $1.00 pick 4: 4,10 with 3 with 3 with 1,2 $4.00
3 $1.00 pick 4: 4,10 with 1,9 with 1 with 1,2 $8.00
4 $1.00 pick 4: 4,10 with 1,9 with 3 with 10 $4.00

5 $1.00 pick 4: 4,10 with 3 with 1 with 1,2 $4.00
6 $1.00 pick 4: 4,10 with 3 with 3 with 10 $2.00
7 $1.00 pick 4: 4,10 with 1,9 with 1 with 10 $4.00

8 $1.00 pick 4: 5,9 with 1,9 with 3 with 1,2 $8.00
9 $1.00 pick 4: 4,10 with 4 with 3 with 1,2 $4.00
10 $1.00 pick 4: 4,10 with 1,9 with 6,8 with 1,2 $16.00
11 $1.00 pick 4: 4,10 with 1,9 with 3 with 6 $4.00

Total: $74.00 $1 P4 Paid $77.75



OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Erbeia 7-2 9th
Best Value: #12 Royal F J 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Recap 4-1 11th
Super Add: #11 Saintly Seoul 20-1 3rd


7th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Doesn't #2 Emmy Darling (5-2) have underlay written all over her? Local works have been sharp, but she hasn't come close to her 2yo Landaluce win, which is now 15 months in the rear view mirror... Second choice Zayat suspect #3 Tamar (7-2) clearly has had physical issues, making 2 starts as a 3yo for Mott at GP in winter '08, and then disappearing. Resurfaced as a 4yo in La Jolla 3 weeks ago, and may be a 'get 'em while they're hot' type that's bettable until the wheels come off..

Best Value: #1 Double Dip 8-1 2nd
Most Likely: #4 Dish the Dirt 6-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Tamar 7-2 9th
Super Add: #5 North Rodeo 6-1 4th


8th: 36th Morvich H. (Gr. III), 3+, 6.5f-DHT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 California Flag 8-5 WON
Next Best: #6 Desert Code 3-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Tiz West 12-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Bruce's Dream 12-1 3rd


9th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 7f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #13 Boo Too 4-1 11th
Best Value: #8 Good Newsman 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Red Door Drive 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: 5 Trueno 8-1 4th
High 5 Play: #7 Smokenomore 8-1 8th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 7-9-12
7: 1-2-3-4
8: 3-5-6
9: 8-13

Total: 3x4x3x2 = $72


<$75 TicketMaker Multi-Play:

1 $1.00 pick 4: 7 with 1,4 with 3,6 with 13 $4.00

2 $1.00 pick 4: 9,12 with 1,4 with 3,6 with 13 $8.00
3 $1.00 pick 4: 7 with 1,4 with 5 with 13 $2.00
4 $1.00 pick 4: 7 with 1,4 with 3,6 with 8 $4.00

5 $1.00 pick 4: 9,12 with 1,4 with 5 with 13 $4.00
6 $1.00 pick 4: 9,12 with 1,4 with 3,6 with 8 $8.00
7 $1.00 pick 4: 7 with 1,4 with 5 with 8 $2.00

8 $1.00 pick 4: 4,5,10,11 with 1,4 with 3,6 with 13 $16.00
9 $1.00 pick 4: 7 with 2,3,5 with 3,6 with 13 $6.00
10 $1.00 pick 4: 7 with 1,4 with 2,4,9 with 13 $6.00
11 $1.00 pick 4: 7 with 1,4 with 3,6 with 3,5,7 $12.00

Total: $72.00


Good luck!
Steve

Turf races 5 and 6 are off the turf at Belmont today....

BEL SCR'S: http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp



6TH


1 Native Mambo Early OFF TURF
2 Ancient Sunlight Early
11 Chosen Empire Early
13 Delta Miner Early

7TH


1A Starship Angel Early
2 Lisa B Early
10 Ain't Love Grand Early

9TH

13 Roger's Julie Early
14 Imandra Early
15 Worth a Shot Early
16 Vaughndidit Early

Early Belmont stab split with pmac:

2- 3,5,6,7
3- 6,8
4- 3,8,9,10
5- 5,11,14

2- 3,6
3- 3,4,7,8
4- 3,9,10
5- 5,11,14

Good Luck!

SA 7th
 

Might want to consider Glisten in that Super

Late Belmont stab split with pmac:

6- 4,10
7- 1,3,4,5
8- 1,3,8
9- 1,4,6,7,8,12

Good Luck!

I really don't get why the Mott horse is getting so much money here. He's 3-25 with an ROI of $0.75 with foreign shippers on turf over the last five years. That's terrible.

NT

As Andy Serling pointed out on Talking Horses today, the majority of those horses were likely stakes horses (though he didn't have the stats). The stat gave cause for pause, but on paper the Mott looked to be the class of this field and tough to beat here particularly with the addition of Lasix. Not sure why I wasted money using the 1 and 5 here in the pk4, particularly the 5 who was meeting a tough field for her first try against winners.

Plus it's a chalkfest this meet.

Hopefully not in the 8th.

11 of them were allowance races and two of the wins came in those, so I guess that helped the overall percentage a bit more.

I liked Gran Appeal and am 1000% confident if you reverse their trips GA wins by a few lengths.

NT

You are telling me, nothing like cashing a pk4 ticket and getting back half your investment. Guess it is better than not cashing at all. To make matters worse I used a $12 backup for a $4 pk4 to cover the chalk but did not use Rising Moon on that like an idiot. :wf

Thanks for info. I did not get to watch the races today, but I really should have just went 3,4 there. Oh well, there is always tomorrow!

I'm not listening to the show but I imagine Steve is on TILT.

:wf

That... was brutal.

But I at least knew it when they hit the wire. That Saintly Seoul ran big too at 50-1.

Cali Flag loves going down that hill.

I watched the race on youbet and is there any reason why they didn't show any fractions for that race?

I sensed he was "dead on the board" as he was still 2-1 with 4mtp, and then went down to 8/5, which I still thought was unusually high for him. Desert Code didnt take any money at 7/1. They bet a lot of strange horses like Perfect Officer, Stoneside and Bruces Dream.

Cal Flag looked great though. I was going to fire away at one straight late double using California Flag and that horse that ran 3rd in the nightcap, but I thought I'd wait for Belmont tomorrow.

Twitter time
 

Steve, that was the most appropriate use of Twitter. That's what I'm talking about. If the 12 was important enough to twitter THAT'S ALL I NEEDED TO KNOW! I ran a few people over getting to the window.I put $20 accross on the 12. When I see you next dinners on me.:$: :D

Glad you caught him Rand! I forgot I had Twittered about it this morning... LOL.

SB, highly dissapointed you didnt have the $157 winner in the finale. You're losing it my friend...