9/23: Belmont Park (6th-9th)
 

Rolled Saturday's modest $268 P4 score into fun day of Belmont action Sunday that ended with $500 quad and bonus of $200 late P3. You Go West Girl ($12.00) and nightcap single Exhi ($10.40) were a big help in the late multi-race action, but getting 4-1 Legally Blanca to best even money Strike the Bell in the 8th was instrumental to the healthy payoffs. Hope you did well!

The carryover P6 paid nearly $76,000, and though 4 of 6 was an OK try, this was a very approachable jackpot on the kind of budget a lot of us employ. As discussed on ATR Monday, I felt like I had the right understanding of the sequence overall, and needed to use 4 in what was a confusing opening leg for me. And sure enough, 7-1 Wishingonadream, who I had further down my list, took the 5th. While the P3/P4 to end the day more than offset all the afternoon's investments, missing this P6 had a big lost opportunity feel to it. The lesson? Again? DRF Formulator TicketMaker... Stretches the budget and broadens the coverage. Example of the TicketMaker approach is used below on today's P4. It may not be for everyone at first glance, but if you take time to learn its' nuances, it will pay off for you.

DRF TicketMaker: http://www.drf.com/formulator/ticketmaker.html

Belmont to start the week with an interesting late sequence. And note too that the 6 horse stake in the 3rd is a terrific race to watch today which includes Pyro's little sister War Echo, and more nice 3yo fillies going a mile.


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: NYB-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Amiga Del Sol 9-5 WON
Best Value: #2 Adriatic Magic 12-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Dream Train 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 We Got Heat 20-1 11th


7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 SCR
Best Value: #1 Stephen's Even 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Royal Vessel 10-1 WON
Super Add: #8 Bikini 2-1 7th


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1e Godolphin entry 5-2 2nd/3rd
Next Best: #2 Perfect Casting 9-2 WON
Best Value #7 Richland Creek 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 American Cruiser 3-1 7th


9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #7 Serela's Song 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #5 Lofty 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Nostalgic 2-1 WON
Super Add: #11 Amber Edge 4-1 4th


<$75 Simple P4 Play:

6: 1-2-5-8
7: 1-4-8
8: 1-2
9: 3-5-7

4x2x3x3 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (1,4/4/2/1,2,3,4,13,14,15,16) Paid $425.00


<$75 TicketMaker System Plays:

1. 1,2 with 1 with 1,8 with 7 $4.00

2. 8,12 with 1 with 1,8 with 7--$4.00
3. 1,2 with 4 with 1,8 with 7--$4.00
4. 1,2 with 1 with 7,9 with 7--$4.00
5 1,2 with 1 with 1,8 with 3,5--$8.00

6. 8,12 with 4 with 1,8 with 7--$4.00
7 8,12 with 1 with 7,9 with 7--$4.00
8. 8,12 with 1 with 1,8 with 3,5--$8.00
9. 1,2 with 4 with 7,9 with 7--$4.00
10. 1,2 with 4 with 1,8 with 3,5--$8.00
11. 1,2 with 1 with 7,9 with 3,5--$8.00

12. 5 with 1 with 1,8 with 7--$2.00
13. 1,2 with 8 with 1,8 with 7--$4.00
14. 1,2 with 1 with 2 with 7--$2.00
15. 1,2 with 1 with 1,8 with 8--$4.00

Total: $72.00


Good luck!
Steve

BEL COMPLETE CHG'S: http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp


PK 4 SCR'S:

6TH

1A Above the Call Early
4 Darlin Rose Early


7TH

6 Akonite Early


8TH

2B Flint River Early
10 Starforaday Early
11 Bb Livermore Early
12 Sneaky Girl Early


9TH

1 Casing Gold Early
2 Stormie Gray Early
4 Galaxy Love Early
13 Rosalba Yankee Early
14 Why Because Early
15 Purses and Shoes Early
16 Siren's Call Early

Steve, ticketmaster plays show you only using your "Next Best" in R8 #2 ONCE on a $2 total cost ticket.

After the scratch of Akonite, I had to play around a bit with the structure. Within the play, I ended up upgrading 7-8-9 somewhat at the expense of the 2.

Am STILL struggling with it as I decide what kind of ticket to put in for myself..

G/L!

Solid cappin' so far. Good luck.

kasept- and on you roll. great picks - congratulations - thanks for the fun.

So, is that 4 of the last 5 late Pick 4s that you've hit (and given out)? :eek:

And hitting the tri and super in the last race, also?

Someone is on a roll!

Keep it going!

(And thanks for the Pick 4 today.:$: )

Yet another great job!

Congratulations, and thanks as always!!!

Another unbelievable run.:tro:

DId you use his ticket maker play?

Glad all did well... (Except Potsie above of course...:rolleyes: ). Nice enough return for the effort I thought. As I said on air, Perfect Casting and Royal Vessel were likely shorter in the P4 than on the win end.

Pretty funny that after all the conversation about multiple ticket approach the simpleton straight play is the winner. I tinkered with the structure and the A-B-C's after the scratches and pushed the 2 down outsmarting myself. Will keep offering the multi approach though, as long term it will help all of us hit bigger, more often...

I think you may just find out the opposite. Ticket Maker will give you a higher percentage but payouts will be chalkier.

Over a period of time, that will be nearly impossible.

First, the plays that have the highest probability of winning, (and hence lower price winners within), will virtually ALWAYS be covered in the mutli-ticket approach, (and ideally will be played for more than $1 or $2 base amounts).

But then, more sequence combinations that feature outrageous prices within will be covered when they might not be in simple 'caveman' tickets. That will produce overlay returns.

And because my plays regularly may leave out 1st, 2nd and/or 3rd choices in legs in favor of 'crazier' horses, the multi-ticket approach should catch many more of the 'middle' price P4's I frequently have missed.

A good example of the vagaries and potential weakness of AxBxCxD decision-making might have been yesterday in fact... In the simple 4x3x2x3 play, had I leaned on a third horse in the 8th, (Richland Creek who scared me), I may well have gone 4x3x3x2 and left off my third choice in the 9th (Nostalgia) who won.

In this case, on his Ticket Maker selections, Steve was a neck, half a length, and a nose away from a chalkier Pick 4... but he had it six times. Although it did not pay off this time, over time it has the potential to score some healthy payouts.

This is a new approach, so I think I'll let Steve do the work and fine-tune his method. I might even learn something.... :zz: