Derby Trail Forums - 9/4: Saratoga ($656 C/O)

Crazy action at the Spa Thursday leaves $656k two day carryover on the table going into final Friday of the meet. The day started beautifully with $22 Best Value jump event winner Terpsichorean, and rolled through sweet $120 ($1) early P3 to BEST BET Tapitsfly in the third. But $40 Hennig-Dattt baby busted up the early quad while simultaneously burying many a P6 try. When 15-1 ML 'Exotics Use' Crossfirehurricane ($86.00) won the 7th at a ridiculous 42-1, another carryover was assured. Late P4 paid a remarkable $76k+, with tricky but not impossible horses Silver Reunion ($30.20) and McVictory ($20.40) with obvious West Ocean ($4.80).

Not to say the Pick 4 was going to be strung together easily, but the three big price winners were hardly 'rank outsiders'. NYRA's Andy Serling tabbed McVictory as his nightcap top choice and he suggested Silver Reunion as his third pick. I regularly include Ronny Werner babies in my selections based on his good work with early runners. Thoro-Graph Trainer Profile showed that Werner is hitting at 20% wins ($2.00 ROI), 55% ITM, with maiden claiming debuters. He was 15/1-5-3 over the last 90 days, and I thought Crossfirehurricane was atr least an exotics candidate.

Anyway, we all get another shot this afternoon with fun twilight action on tap in front of the mamouth closing weekend which includes Rachel Alexandra in the Woodward, the Forego, Spinaway, Saranac and Three Chimneys Hopeful. Let's try to finish with a flourish!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES (1:25pm)

1st: ALW/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a (POE) Life at Ten 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 Mother Ruth 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Acronym 6-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Lisa B 20-1 7th

2nd: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Wanted Alive 9-2 3rd
Most Likely: #7 Dixie Frolic 7-2 6th
Next Best: #5 Justin 3-1 WON ($8.20)
Super Add: #8 Futuristic 4-1 2nd

3rd: With Anticipation (Gr. III), 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Paddy O'Prado 8-1 3rd
Most Likely: #1a SCR
Next Best: #7 Jung Man Scot 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Red Rally 4-1 9th

4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Precious Penny 12-1 6th
Most Likely: #2 Bernie's Pal 9-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Lovely Lil 10-1 WON ($12.20)
Super Add: #8 On the Best 15-1 8th

5th: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2b (POE) Big Jerome 6-1 10th
Most Likely #4 Valtrus 3-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Tiger Woodman 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Tahoe Warrior 10-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 4-5-7-8
3: 1-3-7
4: 2-10
5: 2-4-9

4x3x2x3 = $72

6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Over the past 5 years, Linda Rice has sent only 19 firsters (all ages) over a mile on the grass winning once with Yankee Master (9/24/05). Overall, she is 19/1-0-1 with Zipolina third late in the Spa meet a year ago. Segregating 2yo's, she is 9/1-0-1. With several interesting players from accomplished turf route conditioners signed on, this may be a spot to toss Rice..

Best Value: #2 (POE) Nurse Dolce 10-1 6th
Most Likely: #6 Pearl River 3-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Adriatic Magic 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Breton Woods 5-1 3rd

7th: Voodoo Dancer, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Ridiculously competitive overnight stake..

Best Value: #8 Indescribable 6-1 8th
Most Likely: #9 Savoir Bien 9-2 5th
Next Best: #10 Colina Verde 6-1 9th
Super Add: #1 Remarkable Remy 12-1 7th

8th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Iberian Gate 4-1 10th
Next Best: #1 Thoroughly Holy 3-1 WON ($4.90)
Best Value: #2 Catty Madeline 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Linsalata 9-2 2nd

9th: NYB-OC/C, 3+, 11f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #1 Pegasian 8-1 5th
Most Likely: #6 Quiet On the Tee 3-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Tobruk 7-2 WON ($15.20)
Super Add: #8 Gold Pageantry 12-1 10th

$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-10
5: 2-4-9
6: 1-2-4-6
7: 8-9
8: 8
9: 1-6

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-4-5-6
7: 8-9-10
8: 8
9: 1-6-7-8

6x3x1x4 = $72

Good luck!
Steve