8/17: Saratoga (Day 18; Halfway point)
 

First half of breakneck Spa meet concludes Monday on the heels of a wild weekend featuring many a mind-blowing mutuel melee. Culmination of the price horse frenzy came Sunday with a $120,000 double carryover payoff. Went frustrating 4 of 6 on a modest $192 ticket, (given the stunning $1.3 million pool). Upon the day after recap, a larger investment into the opportunity was likely warranted to have true potential to take down the excellent return. Ninth race 3rd choice Citifest was left off the big ticket, and while I played against nightcap ML 2nd choice Smart Trade, she certainly was a serious player to consider for the sextet. Wasn't unhappy with the attempt, though consos would have been nice...

The good news was a series of terrific rolling P3's with 'most likely' and 'best value' horses that started for $306 with One Note Samba-Strategic Mission-Whisked Away (6th-8th), continued to Citifest (7th-9th) for a gaudy $627, and finished with Banrock (8th-10th) for $230. The best horse/play of the day, and key to everything that worked Sunday, was Mott's 'on top' Best Value Whisked Away in the 8th ($22.80). He hung on to best Shug's Siren Serenade, who looked like a refuse-to-win type to me, and made the day an excellent way to offset the misses generated the last few tumultuous days.

Hope you did well! Seth Merrow and I on Capital OTB-12's 'Call to the Post' this morning 10:30-11:30, with guests Tim Ice (Summer Bird), Lonnie Goldfeder (DRF) and Mike Kane (Hall of Fame). You can watch the stream at http://www.capitalotb.com. Join me for the weekend recap later on "At the Races", 4-7pm on Sirius 126/XM 104...


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

NOTE: Sciacca's #7 San Naa is a talented but highly quirky animal who is as liable to refuse to leave the gate or pull himself up as he is to run to his ability and hit the board. Use at own risk..

Most Likely: #4 Voodoouthinkur 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Another Success 2-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Bohemia Street 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 San Naa 12-1 DNF


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

NOTE: KMc debuts a chestnut son of the wonderful 1997 Champion 3yo filly Ajina (#8 Ready for Change) here. As great as she was on the racetrack, Ajina has been largely unproductive as a mother, and this A.P. Indy colt (6-1 ML) likely ends up overbet for the task at hand today..

Most Likely: #6 Antenna 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Indian Council 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Successful Score 3-1 WON
Super Add: #3 Exhi 4-1 3rd


3rd: OC/C, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Gayego 6-5 WON
Next Best: #2 Lantana Mob 4-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Tend 10-1 3rd


4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Refined Elegance 2-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Australis Princess 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Sky Fever 12-1 WON
Super Add: #9 Great Gracie Dane 8-1 7th


5th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

NOTE: Pace battle looms here between #10 Close to the Vest from Schosberg and Epley invader #8 Super Nekia. One could be lone speed if either was to be compromised at the break..

Most Likely: #10 Close to the Vest 7-2 WON
Best Value: #8 Super Nekia 8-1
Next Best: #6 Marq of Love 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Perfect Vow 6-1


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-4-6
3: 2-4
4: 4-7-9
5: 6-8-10

4x3x2x3 = $72


6th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Casa Di Vino 7-2
Best Value: #1 Dreary Day 12-1
Next Best: #8 American Land 3-1
Super Add: #6 Driven by Royalty 8-1


7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Banker's Buy 9-2
Best Value: #9 Vicarious 8-1
Next Best: #6 Sister's Speed 7-2
Super Add: #8 Driven by Seattle 5-1


8th: Troy, 4+, 5.5f-T (DD, Super)

Yikes.. Utter scramble and a fun betting race..

Most Likely: #4 Sixthirteen 6-1
Best Value: #9 Due Date 8-1
Next Best: #5 True to Tradition 4-1
Super Add: #6 Storm Treasure 10-1


9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #7 Langley Park 8-1
Most Likely: #4 Mimi's Kids 5-2
Next Best: #3 Try Your Best 3-1
Super Add: #5 Miss Nick 6-1


<$75 P4 Play:

Brutally difficult sequence..

6: 1-5-6-8-9
7: 2
8: 4-5-9
9: 3-4-5-6-7

5x1x3x5 = $75


Good luck!
Steve

Most Likely: #10 Close to the Vest 7-2
Best Value: #8 Super Nekia 8-1
Next Best: #6 Marq of Love 3-1
Super Add: #5 Perfect Vow 6-1


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-4-6
3: 2-3-4
4: 4-7
5: 5-8-10


Steve,

Was this intentional, or did you mean to use the #6 here? Just curious, as you have 3-1 Marq of Love as the Next best, but use the #5 in the P4.

Hope all is well, and thanks as always for your endless time, effort and energy that you invest and share with us all.

BOL today!

Scratches:

Race 2 #5 Highveldt Storm, #7 Bunky
Race 3 #3 Americanrevolution
Race 4 #8 Fair Lady Olivia
Race 5 #11 Dr. Nick
Race 6 #11 Miss Saul, #12 Bird in Hand, #13 Moon Drop, #14 Cap the Thunder, #15 Playful Majesty, #16 Dear Marylou
Race 7 #5 Worth a Shot, #7 Songstressofdubai
Race 8 #7 Atticus Kristy, #11 Ferocious Fires
Race 9 #2 Patti Tiff, #12 Love for a Price, #13 Durlores

Thx! Should be the 6. Will be updating selections post-SCR shortly.. G/L today!

Canadians will be in Toga
 

Kelster and Martin will be in Toga for sure on the 24th maybe 23rd.:) :) Can't wait

They REALLY crushed this Ryan horse, eh?

Yeah let's see if this hot on the toteboard theory work. Royal Academy 1st out/Derek Ryan-debut are not handicapping angles I usually look for.

Well "they" were pretty wrong.

Super Nekia might be a live one in the 5th, never heard of this trainer but his get positive ROI among other reasons to like in here.

Does look a little live, but I keep thinking weird shippers are interesting when Ramon takes the call - most of them haven't run well.

Ramon on drops the price abit, without him on this horse he is what 15/1?

Probably. I think Epley's other runner at the meet was very well meant and ran as well as could be expected considering the circumstances - firster breaking from the rail and dueling through very fast fractions vs. more experienced runners.

Bankers Buy/Rapid Beat exacta box in the 7th; Storm Treasure in the 8th; My Violin in the 9th

This quizzed me earlier today, Dominguez on Kaper Lake over Our Friend Harvey and perhaps 613 for Hushion. Considering he rode Sammarco earlier in the meet to one of the better turf sprint efforts we've seen to this day, I would have thought he would have the ride here. Is it Rice again?