8/15: Saratoga (Day 16; Sword Dancer; C/O)
 

Odd day selecting Friday with early scores in the first (All exotics inside box including $2.4k Super) and second (Top four straight) and then a lull till later in the card (7th-9th P3). Beaten in last by $50 Suffolk surprise who was not impossible by any means making first start versus conditioned claimers. P4 paid $5,888 too, but carryover also a result. Was occupied with truly wonderful day of Hall of Fame induction activities including ATR visits from Bob Baffert, Mike Pegram, Janet Eliot, Charley Fenwick, Kent Desormeaux and Graham Motion. Hope you did well Friday, enjoyed the At the Races coverage and are ready for a great weekend!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Chief Export 5-1
Most Likely: #1a Hurricane Heat 2-1
Next Best: #7 Double or Nothing 5-1
Super Add: #5 Gimmearoutine 8-1


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Liston 3-1
Best Value: #9 Callide Valley 10-1
Next Best: #3 World Record 6-1
Super Add: #7 Brother Bird 4-1


3rd: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Close Encounter 8-1
Most Likely: #4 Hot Minute 4-5
Next Best: #8 Inherit the Gold 6-1
Exotics Use: #1e Serpe entry 5-1


4th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Strong Commitment 5-2
Best Value: #6 Keep Thinking 5-1
Next Best: #8 Count Catamount 7-2
Super Add: #9 History Starts Now 12-1


5th: MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Tawaared 4-1
Next Best: #9 Peace Wine 5-2
Best Value: #4 Captiva Pass 10-1
Super Add: #8 Tigresco 7-2


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-9
3: 4-5-8
4: 2-6
5: 3-4-8-9

3x3x2x4 = $72


6th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Start of carryover, and hard to accept that there isn't a first timer here that will be better than the obvious ones coming out of several races against each other. Even 30-1 Pappy's Double H (#7) may be OK and worth a glance after losing all chance early in his 7/11 debut that produced Hot Minute (4-5 fave in today's 3rd), and next out at Spa demolisher Al's Deputy (Schosberg). Other interesting numbers include #5 Marsh Haven (8-1), luring Ramon Dominguez who rarely rides for capable Charlton Baker, and bulleting #10 Saginaw (6-1) from Seth Benzel who has a plus ROI ($2.18) with firsters. Very tricky start to the P6...

Best Value: #5 Marsh Haven 8-1
Most Likely: #6 African Knight 5-2
Next Best: #1e Levine entry 12-1
Exotics Use: #7 Pappy's Double H 30-1


7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

As usual for Empire breds at this distance and class, a tremendously well-matched group that makes for a wild wagering affair where you simply must demand value. #4 Globemaster (5-2) may very well win as Penna is on a remarkable roll and the Forbidden Apple gelding moved up nicely in his turf bow maiden-breaker last time. However, he is sure to be overbet and is not any faster or better coming in than many signed on. While Maragh is certainly capable, Dominguez notably sides with #6 Quiet On the Tee (3-1) who is also just OK. #3 Tobruk (5-1) from My Man Sciacca and Crazy Phil Marcantonio, is a hard luck gelding that is always competitive but constantly falling short. Another tough set in the 2nd leg of the C/O sextet, and a great spot to swing for the fences..

Best Value: #1 Fortissi More 8-1
Priced Right: #2 Munition 8-1
Next Best: #5 Dos Hombres 12-1
Super Add: #8 Prince Dubai 15-1


8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Stroll for Acure 7-2
Best Value: #8 Key Victory 20-1
Next Best: #4 Good Question 6-1
Super Add: #10 Spartan King 6-1


9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Outstanding ALW group..

Most Likely: #5 Thabazimbi 3-1
Best Value: #2 Rocket Legs 12-1
Next Best: #3 Lease of Life 5-1
Super Add: #8 Independant George 8-1


10th: 35th Sword Dancer (Gr. I), 12f-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Grand Couturier 3-1
Best Value: #3 Lauro 10-1
Next Best: #10 Musketier 6-1
Super Add: #5 Rising Moon 12-1


11th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Whirlwind Poppy 3-1
Best Value: #4 Urbano 20-1
Next Best: #7 Brazen Kat 6-1
Super Add: #1 (POE) Spa City Fever 20-1


$200 P6 Play:

Brutally tough sequence..

6: 1-4-5-6-7-9
7: 1-2
8: 2-4
9: 5
10: 1-3
11: 1-6

6x2x2x1x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$100 P4 Play:

8: 2-4
9: 2-5
10: 1-3-5-6-10
11: 1-4-5-6-7

2x2x5x5 = $100


Good luck!
Steve

I couldn't type my name at 4:35 a.m. let alone all of this...you're amazing Steve. :D

Race 2 is one of my favorite kind of races.

Capital Otb just said the Baffert in race 2 is scratched.

#1 Fuhrever Dancing (POE from Gullo) is out too as #1a Hurricane Heat goes.

Is the Baffert really out, I was hoping OTB was wrong. Its not up on NYRA yet.
Thanks Steve.

1ST

1 (poe) Fuhrever Dancing
5 Gimmearoutine


2ND

5 Bulldogger


3RD

7 Her Latest Flame


7TH

10 Gamblin Fever
12 Hoist the Gala
13 Longing for Malibu


8TH

11 Brown's Hill


9TH

11 Ea
12 Even Raise
13 Mr. Unstoppable


11TH

1A Ryan and Jack
2 Don't You Linger
11 Nugget of Wisdom
13 Bullstar
14 Silveroo

Looks like they are trying to give HH away.
He still has the 1x and the 7500k str alw.

Saratoga Race 3

I wonder where these horses are running? These are definitely from another race. Here are my picks for Steve.

3rd: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f

Best Value: #5 Pressure Point 5-1
Most Likely: #6 BZ Warrior 7-2
Next Best: #8 All the Bases 12-1
Exotics Use: #2 John Kelly 3-1

My BAD!!!! my picks are for Sunday. WOo this heat is getting to me.

Three way shake for him. Went to Barrera. He ran a big race.

Two $50+ horses in a row......:wf :wf :wf

When I was looking at this card I thought there was a lot of chances for a price....I just can't land any myself. :wf

carryover?

I'm pretty sure that in my (small sample size I know) 5 years of handicapping and playing Saratoga, I've never seen a day quite like this.

this is unreal....these results looks like EVANGELINE

If the current favorite (3) wins this, someone gets nearly $7K for 4/6

Back to the drawing board!!

Triple carry Sunday. :eek:

just a heads up monmouths pick 5 carried also

Double carry, but $262k in the kitty is all that really matters.

The key to the race was the 1,2 finishers ran Aug 2nd. The only two that have. This angle has been doing very well at the Spa.
Saginaw is trained by Chad brown, Not Seth Benzel, not that it mattered.