7/4: Belmont (P4); MTH Stakes
 

Got clobbered at Monmouth Friday before getting untracked at Churchill. Entire Monmouth P4 pool was taken down by one ticket to the tune of $40k after a challenging three races and $100-ish winner in the anchor. At CD, got rolling early with overlay winner of the 8th to start the late action. Hope you did OK in advance of the big holiday weekend of action. With 2 Dee Tee Stables runners in at Arlington today, I'm a bit distracted, but the 3 Belmont stakes as part of the P4 is the main wagering focus along with the intriguing stakes at MTH.

Have a wonderful, safe 4th!


BELMONT PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


8th: 92nd Dwyer (Gr. II), 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Warrior's Reward 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 Masala 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Kensei 6-1 WON
Super Add: #6 Just Ben 2-1 6th


9th: 62nd Prioress (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1e Evans entry 3-1 WON/2nd
Best Value: #2 Luster 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Heart Ashley 4-1 6th
Super Add: #8 On the Menu 6-1 7th


10th: 123rd Suburban H. (Gr. II), 3+, 10f (DD, Super)

Very fun edition of this legendary event. Seems to have surprising plus pace scenario so include rallying types and prices. There are no bad plays in this wide open affair..

Most Likely: #4 Asiatic Boy 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Real Merchant 15-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Dry Martini 6-1 WON
Super Add: #10 Samhoon 20-1 10th


10th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Brutally tough way to end tricky sequence! 6-7, maybe 8 different runners eligible here..

Most Likely: #7 Tawaared 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Chapin Beach 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1e Clement entry 7-5 6th/8th
Super Add: #4 Evolutionist 4-1 WON


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-3-4
9: 1-2
10: 2-4-7
11: 1-4-5-7

3x2x3x4 = $72 $2 Pick 4 (3-1-2-4) Paid $1,103.00



MONMOUTH PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


9th: 62nd Salvator Mile (Gr. III), 3+, 1m

Best Value: #7 Keep Laughing 10-1 8th
Most Likely: #2 Smooth Air 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Coal Play 4-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Kiss the Kid 15-1 5th


10th: 56th United Nations (Gr. I), 3+, 11f-T

Most Likely: #7 Presious Passion 9-2 WON
Best Value: #2 Strike a Deal 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Spice Route 4-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Wesley 10-1 8th


Good luck!
Steve

The 2nd race is off the turf at Belmont and the nightcap's been moved to the inner.

Until further notice there will be at least one turf race moved to the main track each day. There's also a bird urination on the Widener scheduled for 4:00 PM EDT so the status of the 11th is still in question.

NT

:D :D :tro: :tro:

BELMONT P4 SCR'S:

Race 11

#2B Pynaformer
#9 Memorized
#1A Grassy

MTH STAKES SCR'S:

Race 10 -- United Nations

#9 Better Talk Now

Now you're getting it.

Belmont 6
Personal Shopper
$15 wp

Nice Belmont Pk 4 Steve!
 

:tro:

nice 4 figure payout, guess its just another days work at the factory

congrats

-bt-

Chalk up another one!

Shooting off fireworks and its not even dark yet. :$: :$:

Thanks as always, Steve.

Hope you're having a wonderful 4th.

Congrats $teve

I made just enough on betting the Dee Tee horses that I bet Steve's pick 4 without making any "improvements." :rolleyes: Thanks, Steve. :D

If this is redboarding, it is only done to give Steve more credit for his great handicapping! :tro: :tro:

I'm gonna add to the Byk cudo's and redboard too. Had a family function to go to today. Cookout that turned into an indoor bore fest due to Belmont type rain all day. Had $60 left in my Twinspires account so I dropped out Masala from the 8th to get below $60 and said "F... It, let's use Byk's pyks" for the day. Just got home and saw the results. Thanks for the pick me up Steve...you rock!
:tro: :tro:

Thanks all. After the lousy Thurs and mediocre Fri, was nice to negotiate this tricky sequence. Happy to see a number of winners come along

Way to go Steve I caught pick 4 thanks to you.....That along with the 2 at CD made for a real nice day! Thanks again Master Steve!!!

Is it hyperbole or have the payouts finally been visibly affected by the Byk effect. 15.40/4.20/23.60/14.20 = $21,675.56 would be the parlay for a $2 bet.

Too many cashed tickets stealing value from a great sequence but who can complain about a $1103 for a buck.

Does anyone else have the same numbers for the parlay ? It is a striking difference in payout..

Thanks Steve! I got to the Indians just in time for the late DD which paid $126..great call on martini !

D,

That's very flattering, and I know at least 8 people hit it based on the thank yous here and Emails received so far, but I think the winner's prices don't reflect their P4 odds.

ML on the winners were 6-1 ($14), 3-1 ($8), 6-1 ($14) and 4-1 ($10). A parlay of those is @ $1,500 and I think we can assume the Ned Evans Prioress entry was a single on many tickets and nearly a free square. The Mott winner in the nightcap was overlaid and certainly most would have included him on their P4. Kensei and Martini were a little tougher to find as winners but close enough on paper... So, I think the P4 price isn't glaringly low.

The 2 that may have been impacted were the $3,600 Hollywood P4 when at least 11-12 hit it based on the mail I received, and the Prairie Meadows miscue last week where the will pays on the three I used was severely depressed in the little $17,000 pool. I had flogged the PrM on the radio and I think a lot of people bet the skien.

Thanks Steve.............See you in Saratoga, I'm buying you a beer at the "JIm Dandy Bar"

Great hit steve, Didn't have the 4 in the last. Great hit and keep it rolling