7/2: BEL (4th-9th); CD (4th-11th)
 

Solid try at the BEL carryover P6 was thwarted Wednesday by Fiona Freud, the perennial also ran that got her 2nd career win in her 25th start in the 5th. I tried to single Bruce Levine's Pea Stone, and upon further review, I'm not disappointed with the decision. The 11-2 Roddy Valente runner, who normally seeks a just-off stalker's trip, had traffic trouble trying to rally after a slow start and only missed by a length and a half.

That was bad luck as the rest of the sequence went the right way for a $3,700+ 6/6 payday and $45 5/6 conso. A Pea Stone win over the 3-2 Fiona Freud boosts that sextet return by perhaps three times, so I came away feeling OK about the attempt which dropped in cost to $144 after the early scratch of We Get It from the nightcap. Caught the late P4 for $127, so the expenses of the day were more than acceptable given the mutuel potential had everything broken perfectly. Hope you did well. A little Belmont and the final Churchill nightswimming are today's glances.


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Violette entry (Only one goes; Both good) 9-2
Best Value: #4 Consort 10-1
Next Best: #2b (POE) Discreetly Mine 5-2 (Only one goes)
Exotics Use: #7 Insightful 6-1


5th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Star Player 5-2
Best Value: #2 SCR
Next Best: #1 Thunder Minister 5-1
Super Add: #3 Iron Curtain 4-1


6th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Ten Carrot Nikki 3-1
Best Value: #4 Smokin Pistol 8-1
Next Best: #9 Crimson's Gold 7-2


7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 I'llthinkofsumthin 6-1
Best Value: #7 Trillium 20-1
Next Best: #1 What She Said 5-2
Exotics Use: #2e Jacobson entry 4-1

OFF THE TURF: 9-7-10

Trifecta Spot Play: 5-7 with 1-2-5-6-7 with 1-2-5-6-7 (2x4x3 = $24)


8th: NYB-Wandering Cloud, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Northern Netti 2-1
Next Best: #1 Dance Gal Dance 5-2
Best Value: #4 Muffy 6-1


9th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Better Than Swiss 5-2
Best Value: #1 Cherry Lady 9-2
Next Best: #7 By the Sky 4-1
Super Add: #8 Royal Valentine 5-1


@$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-7
7: 1-2-5-6-7
8: 1-6
9: 1-2-7-8

2x5x2x4 = $80



CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Atomic Force 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Barishnikov 5-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Insider 3-1 WON
Super Add: #7 Cape Doctor 4-1 4th


5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (

Most Likely: #9 Half Crafty 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Dabeed 10-1 10th
Next Best: #1 Bottle of Smoke 7-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Dr. Fever 12-1 8th


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #11 SCR
Next Best: #10 Sealed Bid 4-1 5th
Best Value: #8 La Milanesa 5-1 WON
Exotics Use: #7 Cruisin'nthebridle 3-1 3rd
High 5 Play: #2 Queen of Empire 5-1 4th


7th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #4 Step Out Smartly 3-1 WON-DH
Best Value: #5 Honest to Betsy 5-1
Next Best: #6 SCR


<$75 P4 Play:

4: 6-8-9
5: 1-7-8-9
6: 7-8-10-11/SCR
7: 4-5-6

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


8th: CLM, 3yo, 7f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Fiftycentsondollar 4-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Aztec King 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 SCR
Super Add: #6 Izzy Ali 5-1 7th


9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Special Clearance 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Hitch Your Wagon 9-2 6th
Next Best: #4 A. M. Due 5-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Sister Lou Ann 3-1 WON-DH


10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Squander 15-1 10th
Most Likely: #3 Itain'tover 7-2 5th
Next Best: #4 Senor Fuego 6-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Tintim Por Tintim 5-1 9th


11th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #11 Fort Apache 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Icetate 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Iftheshoefits 12-1 WON
Exotics Use: #6 SCR
High 5 Play: #5 Niobrara 4-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3/SCR-5-8
9: 2-3-4-6-8
10: 1-3-4-5-7
11: 2-11

2x5x5x2 = 100 x .50 = $50


Good luck!
Steve

Weather update. Raining and dark. Could be another storm brewing very soon

Where? NY? I cant believe it :D

It was raining hard in Manhattan and western Queens a short time ago, not sure if Belmont is going to get the worst of it, but the weather could get nasty at any moment.

% chance that they come off the turf, anyone?

Tough to tell, the storm in Manhattan earlier may not hit Belmont and they just might be able to get this card in without taking off the turf.

They ripped off yet another 21 and change 1st quarter sprinting (in the 1st race). Hard to do on an off turf.:rolleyes:

Belmont
 

p-6 5 7----3 9----7---2 3 4----6----5 $24

late P-4 4 7 8----1 2 3 4 5----1 6----2 5 7 $90

Just Zip It Race 8

Spot play turf to dirt with Turner 4 for last 9 and ROI 9.93 ML 15-1

Race isn't exactly loaded and while I can't for the life of me understand why a single turf race would help a horse move forward the numbers here are frightening

Churchill Race 4 #8 is Atomic Force not Baryshnikov

Steve!
 

Great call! 15-1 Iftheshoefits, thanks for the tri!:)

Steve,Nice call on Iftheshoefits. I have to start checking your pics before the race.;)

Thx. Was nice to get something right after a largely poor effort all day/night. :wf

Caller to ATR ended up being right about YouBet telling him there wasn't a middle P4 Thursday. DRF and Xpressbet both had the 4th-7th $100k guarantee in their listings. No excuse for confusion on things like this. :mad:

Anybody ever see 2 win dead heats on the same card before? :zz:

Steve,
Just to add a bit more confusion to the fire...
Capital OTB has the following payoffs listed on their instant result page:

Race 7 - Churchill(TCD$02A07) - Post Time: 18:10
Bet Win Place Show
1 4.00 4.00 2.20
4 3.00 3.20 2.10
2 2.20
$2 EXACTA (4/1) $9.40
$2 EXACTA (1/4) $12.60
$2 DOUBLE (8/4) $14.80
$2 DOUBLE (8/1) $55.20
$0 PICK 4 (6,11-14/5/8/1,3,4,6) (4 OF4) $164.35
$2 PICK 3 (5/8/4) $80.40
$2 PICK 3 (5/8/1) $290.20

I am not sure if DRF or Equibase got the complete results chart. But it looks like there was a mid-Pick 4.

I played a mid 4 on twinspires.

This is bizarre... There isn't a P4 payout on the DRF chart. Ridiculous.