Derby Trail Forums - Bel

In order of preference

R7 - Top pick - Bullara. Last 2 were both places for a 2% trainer. This one is also at the same level but for a new trainer who's at 24%. It's extremely rare that a horse moving from a very low % barn to a very high % barn doesn't move up to some extent.

This race is basically for non-winners in 2009. One of the angles I look for in races with this kind of condition is a horse that ran well in 2008, winning at least 20% of his races and has been lightly raced in the present year. Call Tiger hit the board in 7 of 11 last year with 2 wins and has only 4 outings so far this year with one place - and that was the last race.

I've Got Speed - last was 2nd off a long layoff and showed improvement for the lest successful Dutrow this year, Tony - who's only winning at a 22% clip. Previous to his Apr 30 race he had on race in 17 months. I hope he's sound.

Nacascolo 12/1 has been off 10 months. If he's healthy & fit and runs back to his previous form, he'll be a major threat to take it all.

R8 - The Plot Thickens - Last month he won a straight Mdn race wire to wire and was all out. 2 weeks later, in a move only DWL could love, he bounced higher than my credit card debt is a stakes race. Now he's back in a CL25k N2L at 6/1 and that looks like an overlay to me.

Manhattan Star 5/1 - ran a very good race against better last out and should find this group a little easier.

Suite Ernie B - Linda Rice seems to have him almost in top form and will probably be the betting fav.

Tenacious Greg is only 1 for 23 on the grass but his last, and first for D Dutrow was a step higher and earned figs that are high than the pars for this level. Might be a contender if he get's the right "supplements" so he's on the ticket

R9 - Long Jump - 8/1 That first race for Clement's barn was a good one and a little more improvement will put him right there with the best in the field - which isn't much to speak of.

Top It Off - this is one of Levine's 3 winners this year and maybe he can make it 4.

No Where To Hide - made it to the Ky Derby off three 4th place finishes in graded stakes. He encountered a lot of trouble in that race - mostly caused by the 16 horses who were faster than him. Basically this pony has one win - in a $22K mdn race at Calder.

R10 Terrible field

Woodman - figs for both races this year say he definitely fits at this level
System Restore - big odds for a horse who could do it if the race comes off the grass

I'm not big on hitting the "all" button but I think I'm going to hit the "many" button here.- 1-2b-4-5-7-9-10

In race 6, Mount Wilson - 10/1 - always gives it his best and cashes a lot of checks. I'll be tying this one up more ways than a bondage convention - exacta & trifecta.