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-   -   Fav's win 1/3rd , and lose 2/3rd's , Right? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30166)

pktruckdriver 06-10-2009 03:50 PM

Fav's win 1/3rd , and lose 2/3rd's , Right?
 
If the Fav's win about 1/3rd of the time, then who out there is claiming to win the other 65% of the time with their picks.

I see claims of over 70% winners, no name placing here, but you've seen them too, but come on man with 4 horses to chose from in a 8 horses race , a chimp throwing darts could do that good, am I right, yes.

How about 65-75% with the top 2 contenders/selections, this claim is not as prelevant as the ones with 3-4 contendrs to choose from, but does anyone on this board have that percentage working with only 2 selections?

Now Steve's selections and his fellow selectors have a system where they place 4 horses to choose from, but like Steve, he has them in an order, along with why he chose them, for FREE each Day , amazing too, thanks Steve, but this is not your normal everyday practice and does not fall into what I was looking to see if 65-75% in the top2 really exisited, or if the claims were false.


Now choosing the top 2 , you would of course not be able to do that consisitently in each race, I see that as impossible, but 3-5 races a card maybe? I was wondering who does this, if anyone?


patrick

SniperSB23 06-10-2009 04:00 PM

If your top 2 choices hit 50% of the time you would on average win 1 out of every 64 Pick 6's you play with a 2X2X2X2X2X2 ticket. That ticket would cost you $128. So you would just need to have the Pick 6 payout average $8,192 every time you hit it to break even. Maybe that is a realistic average payout but it seems low to me. It seems highly unlikely to me that anyone is hitting at 50% on their top 2 choices.

dellinger63 06-11-2009 08:06 AM

Especially when you consider the 2 top picks are ML favs.

the_fat_man 06-11-2009 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver


Now choosing the top 2 , you would of course not be able to do that consisitently in each race, I see that as impossible, but 3-5 races a card maybe? I was wondering who does this, if anyone?


patrick

You know who does, as you're over at their site as well: the Sartinistas.

pktruckdriver 06-11-2009 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
You know who does, as you're over at their site as well: the Sartinistas.


I am everywhere and have yet to see 65% of anything yet, I have seen the site's selling handicapping info claiming this and that , though.

But I am in the quest for having the top 2 being around 65% or better ,who wouldn't be?


Sometimes asking the ridiculous things get great responses, sometime it does not, but getting the top2 in about 65% of the time or better would be awesome news, would it not? If it could be substianated.


I am just inquiring here, as many professionals are on this site, many ,many years of knowledge are here, and yes they be laughing at this post, but , then maybe not..


Patrick


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