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-   -   5/25: BEL (P4); LS (Stakes P4); HOL (P6 C/O); CD (Stake) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29898)

Kasept 05-25-2009 06:30 AM

5/25: BEL (P4); LS (Stakes P4); HOL (P6 C/O); CD (Stake)
 
Had winner some where in the selections of the last 6 at Belmont, but it was the kind of day where stringing them together for the P6 ($11k) or P4 ($1,600) was a challenge. Was happy with the runs I made because Smart Engagement wasn't going to be near the top of my 8th race plays no how, and while I liked Giant Mover enough, the 7th was just too deep.

Well ahead for the Holiday Weekend and fun racing coast to coast again today with many stakes live on 'At the Races' later. Please remember the fallen this Memorial Day, and keep badly injured Rene Douglas in your thoughts as well...

Talk to you tonight at 4pm on Sirius 126/XM 104...


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Eldoktori 4-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Lemon Shore 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Snowstalker 3-1 10th
Super Add: #1 Marq of Love 7-2 6th

$1 Exacta (4-7) Paid $28.25


9th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Relatively Ready 5-2 5th
Best Value: #10 Scorch the Torch 15-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Piazza Di Spagna 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Pavlov's Dog 30-1 8th


10th: 116th Metropolitan H. (Gr. I), 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

What this edition of the handicap standard lacks in headliners, it makes up for in solid stakes performers looking for a career-defining win..

Most Likely: #11 Bribon 3-1: Tremendous last and typically better 2nd/break.. WON
Best Value: #12 Driven by Success 20-1: Big price on fast NY-bred; Held own in Carter.. 3rd
Next Best: #2 Smooth Air 4-1: Got time after Gr. II GP score and colic scare.. 2nd
Super Add: #8 Mr. Sidney 10-1: Gets chance to show mettle on main; May leap forward.. 11th

$1 Exacta (11-2) Paid $16.10
$1 Trifecta (11-2-12) Paid $159.00



11th: CLM/N2L, 3yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Manitowish Waters 2-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Hint 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Clever Martini 8-1 6th
Super Add: #8 High On Candy 10-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-4-7-11
9: 2-5-6-7-8-10
10: 11
11: 4-5-11

4x6x1x3 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (4-6-10/11-3/4/6/9/13/14) 4 Correct Paid $170.75



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


10th (5:29pm): 6th Winning Colors (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 6f

Most Likely: #5 Dubai Majesty 2-1 WON
Best Value: #6 Lady Chace 10-1 2nd-DQ'd to 3rd
Next Best: #1 Keep the Peace 5-2 3rd-Up to 2nd

$1 Exacta (5-1) Paid $8.10
$1 Trifecta (5-1-6) Paid $53.10




LONE STAR


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: 13th Dallas Turf Cup H. (Gr. III), 3+, 9f-T (.50 P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Seaspeak 6-5 WON
Best Value: #2 Red Rock Creek 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Ernesto 6-1 2nd


8th: 13th Valid Expectations, F&M-3+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #2 P.S.U. Grad 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Wrenice 20-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Pious Ashley 5-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Stealth Cat 6-1 4th


9th: 11th Ouija Board Distaff H. (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Flibberjibit 3-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Superior Storm 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Wasted Tears 20-1 WON
Super Add: #1 Rustic Flame 9-2 5th

$1 Exacta (4-5) Paid $107.70


10th: 13th Lone Star Park H. (Gr. !!!), 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 It's a Bird 1-1 WON
Best Value: #8 Z Fortune 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Magnum 3-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Jonesboro 6-1 2nd


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-4
8: 1-2-4-5
9: 1-4-5-6
10: 1-7-8

2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 4 (1,4/5/4/7) Paid $204.75



HOLLYWOOD PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Fire Break 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #10 Magna Cum Laude 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #12 Seven Below 12-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Noble Courage 6-1 4th


6th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Midnight Crush 5-2 WON
Best Value: #3 My Maloof Rocker 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Kicken Vixen 7-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Pericia Fina 6-1 5th


7th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 SCR
Best Value: #10 Nene 20-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Lunch Time 7-2 8th
Super Add: #3 Self Insured 8-1 2nd


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Temple City 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Seminole Native 12-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Fiery Trippi 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Heroi Do Bafra 5-1 6th


9th: 66th Showmaker Mile (Gr. I), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

SCR #4 Ventura

Best Value: #6 Thorn Song 12-1 WON
Most Likely: #2 Whatsthescript 3-1 4th
Next Best: #7 U S Ranger 5-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Hyperbaric 4-1 2nd


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #5 SCR
Best Value: #13 Candy Coat 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Truly a Delight 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #14 Box Office Star 6-1 2nd
High 5 Play: #7 Domestic Gold 9-2 6th


Very challenging sequence of races.. P6 and P4 both will be difficult to navigate today..


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 1
6: 3-6
7: 4-10
8: 2-3-4
9: 2-6
10: 7-9-13-14

1x2x2x3x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-10
8: 2-3-4
9: 2-6-7
10: 7-9-13-14

2x3x3x4 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

infield_line 05-25-2009 08:02 AM

Steve, did you mean to use the 5....
 
in the first leg of your Lone Star P4? You had the 4 as most likely....

thx for the fine pic's of late

Kasept 05-25-2009 08:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by infield_line
in the first leg of your Lone Star P4? You had the 4 as most likely....

thx for the fine pic's of late

Chris,

Thx and thx for the heads up Chris.. Fixed it.

G/L today!

beemerhauler 05-25-2009 10:42 AM

In the 1st race at CD today is a 2 yr old Wesley Ward owned and trained named Mississippi Hippie. I just laughed out loud when I read it. Steve, thanks again for all you do for us. You're discussing races online after 4:30 in the morning and your FREE selections for the following day are up before 8 am. And you have Derby Barbie to keep happy. You need to sponsor a line of vitamins or something. Thanks. - Art

atolunch 05-25-2009 12:00 PM

The 5 is a scratch in the 10th at Hollywood!

That really mixes up the 10th, and the Multi wagers. Potential faves scratched in back to back races.

BOL to all today!!

atolunch 05-25-2009 12:29 PM

The 6 is a scratch in the 7th as well!! Ton of scratches today:zz: :zz:



Race 1 #7 Girl of Pangaea (GER)
Race 5 #13 Razor Cut, #15 Utah Beach, #14 No Grande
Race 6 #5 Always Auditioning
Race 7 #6 Cape Hatchet, #8 Waive Liability, #12 Swiss Ski
Race 9 #4 Ventura
Race 10 #5 Benjamin Z, #6 Boomtown, #3 Fire Scout, #10 Downtown Banker, #1 Sovereign Lord

the_fat_man 05-25-2009 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
9th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Relatively Ready 5-2
Best Value: #10 Scorch the Torch 15-1
Next Best: #8 Piazza Di Spagna 8-1
Super Add: #5 Pavlov's Dog 30-1


Like this one today at a price.

Kasept 05-25-2009 12:57 PM

BELMONT P4 SCR'S

8

10 Golden Caesar Early
13 My Golden Opinion Early


9

4 Triste Doble Q Early
11 Theartofcompromise Early
12 Buy a Personality Early
13 Goodbyeandgoodluck Early
14 Pretty Boy Freud Early
15 Captain Sword Early


10

10 Mr. Fantasy Early


11

6 Carry the Day Early
9 Bold Vindication Early
13 Chinese Whisper (IRE) Early
14 Key Victory Early

CSC 05-25-2009 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Like this one today at a price.

Who do you like in the Whittingham?

Kasept 05-25-2009 01:01 PM

LONE STAR STAKES SCR'S

Race 7: No Superfecta Wagering
#1 Song of Navarone

Race 8:
#10 R Charlie's Angel

beemerhauler 05-25-2009 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Like this one today at a price.

Steve had 6 horses in this race 9, so I'm doing a Race 8 Double with 1,7,11/5 for $2.

geeker2 05-25-2009 05:05 PM

Bring it home Steve - I am along with you on the 11 in Bel 11 - but the 5 would be sweet for you.

gl

tanner12oz 05-25-2009 06:32 PM

lol my heart has finally slowed done from the final at belmont. $3600 would have been great but settling for $300 ya cant complain. great handicapping steve. made for a memorable day at the track

geeker2 05-25-2009 06:34 PM

and let's not forget the P4 at Lone Star - great work Steve - that one I rode the full Byk Train!

Thanks!

South Beach Luv 05-25-2009 07:43 PM

Big ouch to whomever held that lone P6 ticket on the 12 horse at Hollywood, hope it was none of you guys, I probably would be in cardiac arrest right now if I didn't have the 8 included.

Kasept 05-25-2009 08:02 PM

beemer, geeker, tanner,

Thanks guys! It's been a lot of fun. Hope you had a great weekend...

pointman 05-25-2009 08:29 PM

Steve, nice call on Thorn Song at 9-1! :$:

atolunch 05-25-2009 09:37 PM

Steve,

Another day, another couple of P4's!! Amazing, this roll is insane.

Great job, thanks,and hope you had a wonderful Holiday!!

Kasept 05-26-2009 05:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman
Steve, nice call on Thorn Song at 9-1! :$:

pt.,

Thanks... That was a home run. Holly was as tough as advertised yesterday, but that price covered everything with a simple, old fashioned win play. Did you hit him?

Kasept 05-26-2009 05:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atolunch
Steve,

Another day, another couple of P4's!! Amazing, this roll is insane.

Great job, thanks, and hope you had a wonderful Holiday!!

Thanks... It was a great weekend overall, and I've heard from a bunch of people that did particularly well. I appreciate the warm sentiments from those that used the plays to their benefit.

Definitely seeing it pretty well and feel like I'm giving myself a chance to 'get paid' with the mulri-race plays... Of course, there was 'the one that got away' (the BEL P4 where I left Joey's Chance off), and the one yesterday where Hint getting up means $1,700 instead of $170, but I'm not complaining.

Hope everyone did well over the Holiday...


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