Derby Trail Forums - 5/24: Belmont ($63k C/O)

Enjoyed a very strong afternoon of play Saturday with nearly everything working to the good. Lone setback was absense off 4th choice Joey's Chance on P4 ticket missing $1,600 bonanza, but that frustrator was offset by the $1,635 Super High 5 play in the Hollywood nightcap! After falling short in NY though, the Quad plays got back on track with $792 Arlington and $265 Hollywood hits.

Other niceties on the day included Brass Hat's crazy 6-1 price ($14.00) in the Louisville H., which was too good to pass up, and the $1,100 superfecta in the Arlington Matron. You needed to box up my P4 uses in the Matron to find that mutuel, which was tripped by 7-1 Euphony whom I tabbed 4th as a Super Add. But the key for me in the race was 42-1 Home's the Best who rallied belatedly to grab 4th.

Hope you did great! $63k carryover at Belmont today which should be a fun afternoon if the rain stays away...

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: 59th Vagrancy (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Any Limit 2-1: Zipped :58.2; Back on fave oval.. 4th
Next Best: #4 Game Face 4-5: Can win obviously, but 4-5? 5th
Best Value: #3 Porte Bonheur 3-1: Legit shot on best.. 3rd

5th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Averymerrymoment 9-5: Moving forward; Fear 'seconditis'.. WON
Best Value: #4 Driven by Royalty 12-1: Should jump up on proper surface.. 9th
Next Best: #9 Refinery Fire 5-1: Passed on 12 hole Thursday; Improving.. 8th
Super Add: #6 Kitty's Wish 10-1: Consistent money-burner always close.. 6th

6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Beam of Love 7-2: Contessa now 2 for 67; Red alternating efforts.. WON
Next Best: #3 Collegiate 5-2: 3yo $400k Team Valor buy working well for return.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Bright Star 3-1: Philly maidenbreaker looks ordinary.. 3rd

$1 Exacta (1-3) Paid $8.20
$1 Trifecta (1-3-5) Paid $16.60

7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Tricky race hinges in no small part on cast members from 4/19 AQU heat won by Ready Formycloseup, (who faded late in the Dame Ellen-Lisa B thriller Thursday). Half a Surprise (2-1), Giant Mover (8-1) and Upper Gulch (8-1) were less than a length apart that day, yet note disparity of early tote on them today...

Most Likely: #2 Gold d'Oro 3-1: Mott miss 9f KEE try was her best yet.. 2nd
Best Value: #3 Upper Gulch 8-1: Fits well with 4/19 cast; Kelly rolling.. 4th
Next Best: #7 Driven Snow 4-1 6th
Exitics Use: #5 Giant Mover 8-1 WON

8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Our Golden Dream 4-1: Tad short when 2nd in soph return.. 6th
Best Value: #4 Sax in the City 5-1: Carlos sharp operator off break.. 2nd
Next Best: #10 Paraiba 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Smart Engagement 4-1 WON

9th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Natural Speed 2-1 WON
Next Best: #4 I've Got Speed 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Can't Refuse 15-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Kenta Kun 4-1 9th

10th: MYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T

Best Value: #6 Lady at the Lake 6-1: Morrison sod mover an alternative in weak group.. 2nd
Most Likely: #2 Imthequeenofqueens 3-1: Approaching hopelessness; Last try first turf.. WON
Next Best: #8 Nurse Kiki 7-2 7th
Super Add: #1 (POE) Stormie Gray 8-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (2-6) Paid $20.20
$1 Trifecta (2-6-1) Paid $99.50

<$250 P6 Play:

5: 3-4-6-7-9
6: 1-3
7: 2-3
8: 1
9: 2-4-5
10: 2-6

5x2x2x1x3x2 = 120 x $2 = $240

<$100 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-5-7-8
8: 1-4
9: 2-4-5
10: 2-6-8

5x2x3x3 = $90

Good luck!
Steve