Derby Trail Forums - 5/8: Belmont; Churchill (Late P4's)

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5/8: Belmont; Churchill (Late P4's)

Scored out for $1,040 on Belmont late P4 Thursday, a day where the capping may have been ordinary but the ticket structure and some overlaid winners made up for it. Air Lord was oddly underbet at 6-1 in the quad opener before Roger Horgan's MTO Motor Patrol went largely ignored at 13-2. Playing against Delosvientos was an absolute must in the featured Nasty and Bold, and Atoned got the nod for $9.80. When 2-1 fave Runnin on Guilt laughably won the nightcap, 'one large' was wrapped up with a bow... Hope you did well. Belmont and Churchill late 4's to look at today...

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 To Tell the Truth
Best Value: #8 Perfect Precision

7th: OC/N3X, F&M-4+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Lucky Revival 3-1
Next Best: #6 Holistic 5-2

8th: Three Coins Up, 3+, 10f-OFF THE TURF (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Dry Martini
Next Best: #9 Even Raise 7-2

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #2 The Big Dunkin
Best Value: #4 Movie Magic
Next Best: #8 Concorde's Crown

<$30 P4 Play:

6: 11
7: 1-4-6
8: 7-8-9
9: 2-4-8

1x3x3x3 = $27

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Treasure Hunter 3-1
Best Value: #6 G SCR
Next Best: #5 SCR
Super Add: #7 Pinpoint 4-1

8th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-OFFTHETURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Victory Notion 7-2
Next Best: #7 SCR
Best Value: #8 Sea Admiral 8-1
Super Add: #1 (POE) Cedros 15-1

9th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Quick Notice 8-5
Next Best: #3 Nursery Rhyme 5-2

10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #1 Positive Cat 8-1
Best Value: #7 Devils Betty 12-1
Next Best: #2 Rememberyourplace 3-1
Exotics Use: #9 Pic a Chic 20-1
High 5 Play: #8 Silver Doll 7-2

<$25 P4 Play:

7: 3-7
8: 1-2-8
9: 5
10: 1-2-5-6-7-8-9-10

2x3x1x8 = 48 x .50 = $24

Good luck!
Steve

I dont know what Wayne 'the cat' has that David Kassen doesnt but, it's some good $hit.

steve - with you on Winloc Big d

i'll see what Gander has to say about Colonial Kid , they like him a lot in that barn

keep it rollin today in Elmont

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

steve - with you on Winloc Big d

i'll see what Gander has to say about Colonial Kid , they like him a lot in that barn

keep it rollin today in Elmont

Both the 6th and 9th are odd assemblies of horseflesh. Colonial Kid is taking a precipitous drop, but there are 3-4 in there that are good enough. At anything near 8-1, Colonial Kid is inviting.

The nightcap is trickier than it looks, and I can see getting upended in there by a horse like The Big Dunkin or Scorper. I'd like to work them in if I can after scratches. Haven't Winloc and He Struck It Rich had enough chances? I don't like the race.

I applaud all those with the time/energy to handicap NYRA turf races before getting the changes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Both the 6th and 9th are odd assemblies of horseflesh. Colonial Kid is taking a precipitous drop, but there are 3-4 in there that are good enough. At anything near 8-1, Colonial Kid is inviting.

The nightcap is trickier than it looks, and I can see getting upended in there by a horse like The Big Dunkin or Scorper. I'd like to work them in if I can after scratches. Haven't Winloc and He Struck It Rich had enough chances? I don't like the race.

yup - gotta maybe use the 1st in their as well- straight flash , it's a spread in my opinion - let's see what the scratches are

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I applaud all those with the time/energy to handicap NYRA turf races before getting the changes.

"Thank you.. I'll be here all week. Please tip your server..."

Belmont is OFF THE TURF again according to website.. SCR's should be out shortly. Main track starting out GOOD.

6

2B Carry the Day Early OFF TURF
3C Pavlov's Dog Early
4X Elder Skatesman Early
6 Brite Gin Early
7 Beneath the Crown Early
9 Marl Early
10 Manitowish Waters Early

7

1 (poe) Dicey Girl Early
2 Sherine Early

8

1 Prince Rahy Early OFF TURF / NO SHOW, PLACE, TRIFECTA , or EXACTA
2 Mission Approved Early
3 Richard's Kid Early
4 Southwest Early
5 Grand Couturier (GB) Early
6 Nergal (FR) Early

9

1 Winloc's Big D Early OFF TURF / NO TRIFECTA or SUPERFECTA
1A Turbo Tim Early
3 Scorper Early
6 Fair Catch Early
9 He Struck It Rich Early
10 Marscaponi Early
11 Straight Flash Early

CHURCHILL

Race 7- LATE PICK 4 BEGINS (50-CENT MINIMUM WAGER)

SCRATCH #1A (part of entry) El Poco Diablo (#1 Variant will run)

SCRATCH #5 Seneca Summer

SCRATCH #6 G Areyoukidding

Race 8 - OFF TURF/1 1/16 miles on main track

SCRATCH AE #1A (part of entry) Little Lizard (#1 Cedros will run)

SCRATCH #3 Atomic Force

SCRATCH #4 Calimonco

SCRATCH #5 Sunshine Rambler

SCRATCH #6 Mizzen's Wake

SCRATCH #7 Relvado

AE #11 Citizens Brigade (main track only) will run

AE #12 Blue Whistler (Main track only) will run

RACE 9

NO CHANGES

RACE 10 - SUPER HI-5 (NO CARRYOVER)

NO CHANGES

In the 3rd here, I'm going with the smartly named All Of Her Twist

Why?

No need or purpose to explaining one's handicapping reasoning. Not no more.

Thanks to Mine That Bird