Friesan Fire
 

Wow, 9/2 on FF, he's never been more than a 1 1/16 and the 7 week lay off is shady. Maybe the wet surface helps him a little, but I think his value is way off. Larry Jones and Saez are kinda the "public" play with Eight Belles story last year, be very careful here though, I say he runs up the track. Your call.

Well this was worthy of a thread. I'm making a thread declaring that Regal Ransom won't win. I know it's a ballsy move and whatnot...but f.uck it.

Just adding a post to a worthy thread

Rather take FF who has run on the dirt and also a sloppy track then POTN who has only run on tires until this week

FF is the best classic distance horse in the race, and quietly a triple crown threat with the Preakness being the real challenge depending on who enters,

but people aren't really handicapping this, so much as they feel this is a "difficult race" and Friesan Fire is being labled a "mudder" because he happened to win the LA Derby in the mud an probably has a high Tomlinson Wet score.
It also hurt a little that the DRF closer look calls him the one to beat.

Based on what?

Papa Clem and I Want Revenge might want a say in that declaration.

his races and his pedigree




papa clem is a bulletproof tiger

he might get the lead going into the first turn and carry it a long ways



General Quarters is 5-1 as of 7pm EDT.

I'm guessing his 452 Wet Tomlinson has a lot to do with it
It takes some handicapping to even like him, unlike Friesan Fire whos in everyone's top 10

There's a good chance these pools are relatively light so far and will do some changing

I've already got FF at 18-1, so I don't care a whole lot what the public thinks of him. I was loving my ticket more and more by the minute until Goldberg picked him.

No worse pre-race feeling than the Hankster landing on your horse!!

musket man has run further in his races than FF, but musket man is getting no respect. friesan fire hasn't raced past 1 1/16th-so i'd think at this point you're going on pure pedigree.

You live a sheltered life. GQ's owner, trainer, groom, etc. was a teacher and principal at a Louisville high school. He's the 'feel good' story and the hometown favorite of this Derby. Of course, the Louisvilleians who show of for the Oaks will bet on GQ. The fact that people bet this way in the Derby is the reason we all think we can make a killing with intelligent 'capping.:D