5/1: Churchill Downs (5th-11th)
 

Weather serious threat to Oaks-Derby Weekend, but you never can count on forecast in this region. Don't abandon or revise your plans unless you see clear indication of compromise to fairness of the racetrack.


CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #11 Custom for Carlos 5-2
Best Value: #2 Fufty Too 30-1
Next Best: #1 Munnings 6-1
Exotics Use: #6 Just Ben 5-1
Super Add: #4 Street Car 5-1


6th: 15th Aegon Turf Sprint (Gr. III), 3+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #2 Smart Enough 3-1
Next Best: #6 Chamberlain Bridge 5-2
Best Value: #5 Due Date 12-1
Super Add: #4 Captivating Cat 8-1


7th: 24th Louisville (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Sporting move by Mosses to come here, but will be surprised if Shirreffs runs Zenyatta over a sea of slop, and race flow against the wonder mare ayway...

Best Value: #4 One Caroline 3-1
Most Likely: #2 SCR
Next Best: #8 Unbridled Belle 3-1
Super Add: #3 Miss Isella 15-1


8th: 25th Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

May cover ridiculous 6-5 ML fave Laragh in multis but looking to score out within race..

Most Likely: #7 Magical Affair 5-1
Best Value: #2 Fleet Streak 20-1
Next Best: #11 Diamond Tags 10-1
Super Add: #1 Excelente 30-1


9th: 6th Alysheba (Gr. III), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #4 Cool Coal Man 4-1
Best Value: #5 Bullsbay 6-1
Next Best: #3 Mambo in Seattle 5-1
Super Add: #8 Dr. Pleasure 6-1


10th: 18th American Turf (Gr. III), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Best Value: #5 Skipadate 10-1
Most Likely: #1 Stormallory 5-2
Next Best: #3 Battle of Hastings 3-1
Super Add: #7 Turfiste 8-1


11th: 135th Kentucky Oaks (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, KO-KD Dbl, KO-WRTC-KD P3, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #6 Rachel Alexandra 3-5
Next Best: #5 Justwhistledixie 5-2
Best Value: #2 Be Fair 15-1
Super Add: #4 Gabby's Golden Girl 10-1


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-7-10-11
9: 1-3-4-5-8-9
10: 1-3-5-7
11: 6

5x6x4x1 = 120 x .50 = $60


Good luck!
Steve

Steve, what do you think of Flying Spur underneath in the Oaks? I noticed she's been first or second twice in a sloppy track.

Mott said tonight on ATR that he is hoping for a board hit. I'd be concerned about her moving backwards off the recent career best last. Baffert's filly and Be Fair offer excellent value too and look like they can/will run well. I doubt I play the race as I'm really rooting strongly for Wiggins, but Flying Spur makes plenty of sense as one of the ones to play with under the top two.

Cool Coal Man??

The way he ran in NY last time they would have to scrape me off the floor if he wins ... and I realize he's not facing a whole lot this time either.

Early Changes:
http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing...rogram-changes

[quote]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept May cover ridiculous 6-5 ML fave Laragh in multis but looking to score out within race.. Most Likely: #7 Magical Affair 5-1 Best Value: #2 Fleet Streak 20-1 Next Best: #11 Diamond Tags 10-1 Super Add: #1 Excelente 30-1 9th: 6th Alysheba (Gr. III), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, $1 Super) Most Likely: #4 Cool Coal Man 4-1 Best Value: #2 Ready Set 5-1 Next Best: #5 Bullsbay 6-1 Super Add: #3 Mambo in Seattle 5-1 QUOTE]

you're going for a number in that edgewood. i agree i think laragh is beatable especially at that price, i'm using 234710 and hope she runs up the track

also, i agree w/ drugs about the coal man. last time out he had ZERO excuses to lose that race with those fractions, what do you see in him this time, muddy track?

gl

-bt-

I'm with you in the 8th and 10th, Steve. . . also like the 1 in the last

Scrpae me off the ground if Mombo in Seattle wins. What a rat that horse turned out to be.

Not really - but the track won't prove you wrong today. . .

Dr. Pleasure has turned out to be real nice this year. I like him

Nobody likes Macho Again but me?

Macho Again will be hard to beat w/ those track conditions. . .

Definalety, the way he won in louisiana in the slop, thats a cold ebox.

Track continues to dry out and no rain in sight for now until the evening.

Does that mean RA is vulnerable?:zz:

did you see her race in the slop at FG?

I did. I was only kidding. Because Steve said it was drying out.:)

whats it look like for tomorrow?

Magical Affair, Bullsbay then Bunker Hill in the 8, 9 and 10th.

Not betting the Oaks per se, will do an Oaks /Derby Double of Rachel Alexandra with Regal Ransom-Chocolate Candy-I Want Revenge

Will also do the Oaks, Woodford, Derby Pick 3 of Rachel/Thorn Song/Regal Ransom-Chocolate Candy-I Want Revenge