Syn to Dirt Beyer Converter
 

Can be found at CM Oreo's site pacefigures.com

The converter basically accounts for the value of a beaten length being more significant on synthetic tracks. Using it for Derby preps for example...

Pioneer of the Nile's '09 Beyers of 95, 90, and 96 become 100, 93, and 101.

Papa Clem's 94 in the San Felipe becomes a 99

Chocolate Candy's last two numbers of 91 and 94 become 95 and 99

General Quarters 95 in the Blue Grass becomes a 100

I Want Revenge's 92 in the Bob Lewis becomes a 96.

The Pampelmousse's 103 in the Sham stakes becomes a 111


Anyone who bets on races at cheaper tracks knows that synthetic track numbers are greatly inflated when slow horses are involved. The opposite of what happens with the fastest horses. A 45 on synthetic is equal to only a 33 dirt.

I don't the statistics to confirm this, but from my betting experience it seems to me that horses that have run on Pro Ride make a better transition to dirt than other synthetic tracks.

Pro-Ride is extremely closer friendly and plays more like a turf surface than a Cushion track or Tapeta does.

The Del Mar and Keeneland versions of polytrack are the two most random surfaces ever created.

Post time favorites record in stake races...

Del Mar poly: 8-for-47
Keeneland poly: 6-for-54

The national average for stake races is almost triple that.

Great nugget of info.. Thanks.

No disrespect, but I find hard this to believe.

I don't...he said Cushion or Tapeta, not Poly.

NT

I don't see the correlation to turf racing. From what I have seen, speed has done well some days as does closers. It's seems like a fair enough surface to me. Certainly more so than the pre-pro ride era when it was speed biased.

Why?

The Pro-Ride at Santa Anita is crazy closer friendly more often than not. It's not uncommon to see horses loafing on the lead through easy fractions and get mowed down by several horses late.

I've seen the charts and research CM Oreo did on it - and it basically confirms the obvious.

In Well Armed's final Dubai World Cup prep he was crawling in a big way and still got ran down.

I think it's more closer friendly than even Keeneland's poly. Evita Argentina steam rolled the boys in the Grade 2 San Vincente - she struggled to close ground when a dull 4th at 3/5 in the Beaumont. Stardom Bound struggled to close big ground when 3rd at 3/5 in the Ashland. Ventura didn't have that same explosive finish she did in the Breeders Cup at Keeneland when she lost the Madison at 2/5. Georgie Boy didn't get his chance. Pioneer of the Nile was 3rd beaten 7 lengths when he ran on it at age 2 in that race Square Eddie dominated.

Yeah - I'd love to see Raven's Pass and that other Euro turf horses blow by Curlin like he's standing still on a dirt track.

An honest hard hitting one-way speed horse like Fabulous Strike basically had no chance on that surface either.

The example of Well Armed is interesting, the track that day at Dubai was a freeway. I think any American based speed horse worth his salt would have been dangerous on the lead and most likely would have won.

I'm not saying turf horses don't do well at SA post pro ride, that is obvious by last years results in the BC. What I am saying is pro ride is a fair surface for all horses, it's certainly more fairer than traditional dirt. It certainly didn't effect Midnight Lute who has won on both pro ride and traditional dirt.

I believe horses without good tactical speed should be at a significant disadvantage in your average horse race.

On dirt they are ... on Pro-Ride they aren't.

I think this one could be easily explained also, Curlin simply was not the same horse he once was going into the The BC or atleast his last 2 races prior indicated to some of us he wasn't, I remember saying before that race he had nothing to lose going into it, if he lost they could blame it on the surface, if he won he would be a hero. Sure Raven's Pass ran great, but Curlin wasn't disgraced and I don't know for sure but numbers wise it wasn't all that far off his previous 2. Albarado errored also with the early move.

Anytime you are Curlin and you lost to Tiag-slow ... you are disgraced.

This is the problem in conventional handicapping. The pacesetter in any other type of race is at a distinct disadvantage. In dirt horse racing, with all the biased tracks and other factors, the speed has the advantage. Handicappers come up with creative ways to justify this as it's the 'norm' for them. When fair racing comes along, like what's happening in CALI, KEE, and elsewhere, they don't know how to deal with it. DIRT reigns supreme and what's actually fair racing, POLY (all artificial surfaces) is DEBASED.

Go figure.

As for me, CALI racing, and all other artificial track racing, MAKES SENSE.

I'm going to throw this out for discussion because I am sure no one has these stats, in general do dirt horses have more difficulty adapting to synthetic surfaces? Whereas synthetic horses adapt better to dirt tracks? Or simply stated who adapts better.

Curlin ran much better than Tiago in the Classic.




Yea it sucked to have the classic on synthetic turf, but it was also a great race with 3 top class race horses, and one of the better betting opportunities betty butter

That is abit of an oxymoron.

I don't know how many tracks you follow but isn't it become more and more the case that trainers are allowing their horses to run on more surfaces? Not only are horses switching between turf and artificial surfaces (not much of a switch at all) but there's more switching between dirt and turf, as well. Check out what was happening this winter at FG, for example.

In a few years, most horses will be running on ALL surfaces and all those wise tales that horsemen and handicappers have bought into will be a thing of the past. Sadly, and unfortunately, horse players, especially the speed centric ones, will be the last to let go.

Interesting viewpoint, you basically stated why I like handicapping Hong Kong races so much.

Acoma is one that comes to mind, she's won on dirt/synth/turf and she is by Empire Maker.