Derby Trail Forums - 4/10: Keeneland (3rd-10th)

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4/10: Keeneland (3rd-10th)

Front half of P4 was elusive Thursday with tough-to-find $20 winner from Ian Wilkes in the 7th upsetting the apple cart early. Picked it up in the second half on strength of nightcap winner Bandora who looked unbeatable to me. The Mott firster was pounded down to odds on and ran well, but Ronny Werner's winner was a gift paying an overlaid $8.80 and bringing back $32 in the ($2) DD with stake winer Informed Decision. Hope you did well. Gr. I Maker's Mark Mile today in advance of Saturday's very nice Blue Grass card.

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Hello Broadway 1-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Budget 9-2 5th
Next Best: #3 Coffee Bar 7-2 3rd

4th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Atticus Kristy 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Mitigation 9-2 5th
Next Best: #1 Officer Rockett 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #2 Tempo Five 3-1 WON

5th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Silver Flatters 5-1 12th
Best Value: #6 Jamie's Mambo 12-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Alexis Girl 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Lady Witha Secret 8-1 10th

6th: ALW/N3X, F&M-4+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Mushka 7-2 WON
Best Value: #5 Absolutely Cindy 30-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Long Approach 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Mini Mom 20-1 6th

$1 Exacta (7-4) Paid $10.40
$1 Trifecta (7-4-5) Paid $102.90

7th: Fort Harrod, 4+, 13f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Rocket Legs 4-1 8th
Best Value: #2 Gangbuster 12-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Lord Kipling 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Kurbat 3-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (2-5) Paid $85.10
$1 Trifecta (2-5-3) Paid $322.20

8th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Crazy group..

Most Likely: #3 Yorktown 4-1 9th
Best Value: #10 Veiled Prophet 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1e McLaughlin entry 8-1 2nd/10th
Super Add: #11 Freedom Alert 15-1 8th

9th: Maker's Mark Mile (Gr. I), 4+, 1m-T (DD, Maker's-Blue Grass Double, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Just as Well 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Passager 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Mr. Sidney 4-1 WON
Super Add: #5 Thorn Song 5-2 6th

$1 Exacta (1-4) Paid $21.30
$1 Trifecta (1-4-7) Paid $70.20

10th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #12 No Detour 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Bearpath 6-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Tevez the Tiger 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Weslin 10-1 4th
High 5 Play: #6 Successful Dan 10-1 WON

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3
8: 1-2-3-7-10-11
9: 1-4-5-7
10: 5-12

3x6x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Does anybody know who Gerry Carwood is (besides the trainer of the 10)? Where did he come from? Was he somebody's assistant?

Thanks in advance.

Race Description
1 1st Race
#7--Elated Moon--SCRATCH

2nd Race
NO CHANGES

3rd Race
NO CHANGES

4th Race
#5--Point of Reason--SCRATCH

5th Race
NO CHANGES

6th Race -- Race has been taken OFF the turf and will be run at 1 1/8 miles on Polytrack.

#1--Goat Cheese--SCRATCH
#3--Trainee--Jockey change to Edgar Prado
#6--Sugar Baby Love--SCRATCH
#10--Lickety Lemon--SCRATCH
#13AE--Brushed Gold--Runs
#14AE--Points of Grace--SCRATCH

7th Race -- Fort Harrod
NO CHANGES

8th Race
#4--Freedom Bay--SCRATCH

9th Race -- Maker's Mark Mile (G1)
#6--Twilight Meteor--SCRATCH

10th Race
#3--Southdale--Add Lasix
#10--Tevez the Tiger--(LA) Lasix Adjunct

1 - 1,3
2 - 4,6,8,10
3 - 2,5

Gl

Early Pick 4

2 - 4,6,8,10
3 - 2,5
4 - 1,2,6,7
5 - 7,10,12

GL

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

early pick 4

.50

2,4,7,9,10
1,4
1,2,6
1,2,10

$45

Bah

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Does anybody know who Gerry Carwood is (besides the trainer of the 10)? Where did he come from? Was he somebody's assistant?

Thanks in advance.

He was an assistant to Eddie Kenneally.

Hello Broadway is overrated but this field is absolutely horrendous.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DerbyCat

He was an assistant to Eddie Kenneally.

Thanks DC.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Hello Broadway is overrated but this field is absolutely horrendous.

I have no confidence in him going around two turns, but can't land on any one horse to beat him. I am hoping Garcia sends the 2 and with the wet track....maybe.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I have no confidence in him going around two turns, but can't land on any one horse to beat him. I am hoping Garcia sends the 2 and with the wet track....maybe.

Or not...:zz:

:wf

$20 win Mitigation
$2 ex 7/1,3

*pats self on the back*

handicapper of the year right here.

Youv'e heard the phrase, follow the money. At Keeneland, it's follow the "Lep"

Overlooked AE ALERT KEE R6! Think the 13 may be able to take them all the way- there is very little pace in here, short stretch, and she's 9-1. Pletcher doesn't scratch out despite the bad post and JV stays on.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

What was the big rush with the jocks? Desormeaux had the 4 in a drive for the first 3/4's of the race. Garcia asked the 2 a half mile into the race and Jeremy Rose moved way too early with the 1. That said, the 5 was much the best, but some curious rides.

I think the whole lot panicked early when they realized the favorite was getting away from them.