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Oddity with recent Oaks winners
It's kind of odd how poorly they've run in their career debut races.
* '05 Oaks winner Summerly: 8th beaten 28 lengths with a 25 Beyer in her debut. 2nd time out improved her figure 49 points in victory. * '06 Oaks winner Lemons Forever: 9th beaten 17 lengths with a 36 Beyer in her debut. 2nd time out improved her figure 30 points in victory * '07 Oaks winner Rags to Riches: 4th beaten 6+ lengths with a 62 Beyer. 2nd time out improved her figure 26 points in victory. * '08 Oaks winner Proud Spell: 76 Beyer in her debut. Improved 18 points in career start #2. While not an Oaks winner ...Eight Belles was 3rd in a MSW race at Delaware Park with a 53 Beyer in her debut .. she improved 14 points 2nd time out. This years Oaks favorite Rachel Alexandra was 6th by 8 with a 51 Beyer in her debut ... she improved 34 points in victory next out. I mentioned before how the last 6 years - a grand total of six horses in the Kentucky Derby had run a triple digit Beyer in career start #2 - and four of the six won while another finished 2nd. Seems like lately with the Oaks it's not so much about being able to post a crazy fast number in career start #2 as it is being able to show extreme improvement off of a mediocre debut in career start #2. The average debut Beyer of the the last four Oaks winners is just 49.75 - that doesn't include Eight Belles 53 or Rachel Alexandra's 51. Just something real weird I noticed. Not sure if it means all that much. |
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