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-   -   3/21: AQU; Magna 5; TP (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28541)

Kasept 03-21-2009 04:39 AM

3/21: AQU; Magna 5; TP
 
Good day of racing coast to coast again Saturday, and I come in to it off a rather poor couple of days. Magna 5 and P3's-P4's at AQU, GP and TP will be the focus..


AQUEDUCT


7th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Spancill Hill 10-1 2nd
Most Likely: #9 Imthequeenofqueens 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Precious Pride 3-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Street Talk 5-1 4th


8th: NYB-ALW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Chilean Gem 3-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Drowning Bear 9-5 WON
Must Use: #3 SCR


9th: 55th Distaff H. (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Secret Gypsy 9-5 WON
Next Best: #1 Zada Belle 7-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Awesome Ashley 6-1 4th


10th: CLM, 4+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Goodson 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Energy Center 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Spring Manners 4-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Surfing Ian 15-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-5-9
8: 1-[3/SCR]-4
9: 5
10: 1-2-3-4-6-7

4x3x1x6 = $72



GULFSTREAM


8th: ALW/N$Y, 4+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #12 SCR
Most Likely: #1 Hold Your Ground 4-1 4th
Next Best: #5 SCR
Super Add: #7 SCR


9th: S/ALW, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 SCR
Next Best: #3 Chasing the Prize 2-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Longhorn 12-1


10th: Pan American (Gr. III), 4+, 12f-OFF THE TURF (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Precious Passion 3-1
Best Value: #1 Sligovitz 5-1
Next Best: #4 Quasicobra 4-1


11th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #4 OFF
Best Value: #2 D'oro Diablo 6-1
Next Best: #7 Runningforspeight 10-1
Super Add: #5 SCR



MAGNA 5


POST-SCRATCHES


A) LRL 9th: Private Terms, 3yo, 1m

Most Likely: #8 Not for Silver 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #9 Classic Wildcat 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Rock On Justin 4-1 5th


B) SA 4th: CLM, 4yo-F, 6f

Most Likely: #3 Blame the Wine 7-2 WON
Best Value: #1 No Cream or Sugar 9-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Amybelle 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Kafwain's Bell 6-1 7th


C) GP 9th: S/ALW, 4+, 6f

Most Likely: #6 SCR
Next Best: #3 Chasing the Prize 2-1 WON
Best Value: #9 SCR
Super Add: #7 Longhorn 12-1 5th


D) GG 4th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6f

Most Likely: #1 Mim's Man 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Game of Luck 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Jiggly 4-1 WON


E) SA 5th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6.5f-DHT

Most Likely: #6 Kays and Jays 7-2 WON
Next Best: #3 Oui Say Oui 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 G's Heavenly Union 8-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Starlarks 4-1 4th


<$100/<$50 Magna 5 Plays:

A: 8
B: 1-3-4-5-6
C: 3
D: 1-4 (3-5)
E: 2-3-4-6

1x5x1x2x4 = $40
1x3x3x4x4 = $80



TURFWAY PARK


6th: Queen, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Good luck to John Perrotta's Mrs Petoski who makes her final career start here..

Most Likely: #2 J Z Warrior 5-2 7th
Best Value: #9 Mrs Petoski 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Just for Keeps 3-1 WON
Super Add: #3 Proud Heiress 12-1 2nd


7th: Hansel, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Rudy Flyer 7-2 6th
Best Value: #3 Music City 5-1 7th
Next Best: #6 King Puma 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Phosphorescent 4-1 4th


8th: Bourbonette Oaks (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Fitz Just Right 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Instrumentalist 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Step Out Smartly 5-1 10th
Super Add: #10 Hot Cha Cha 10-1 WON


9th: Rushaway, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Zeigfield 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Cliffy's Future 9-2 WON
Next Best: #3 Fitzaslew 5-2 6th
Super Add: #5 No Inflation 3-1 5th


10th: Lane's End (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 West Side Bernie 3-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Parade Clown 10-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Loch Dubh 20-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Hold Me Back 6-1 WON


Good luck!
Steve

Holland Hacker 03-21-2009 09:58 AM

Steve,

As usual thanks for the picks. Did you mean to use the 8 (Dorothy's Essence) or the 9 (Imthequeenofqueens) in the first leg of your Big A Pick 4. On one ticket you have 2 - 8 and on the other you have the 2 -4 -5 - 9.

I know I've made mistakes like that before, just checking.

I also noticed that a horse Lauren Stitch was touting on your show is making his debut in the finale at Gulfstream, Purrfect Alibi and you excluded him. Is it the 10 hole that is scaring you?

GL
HH

Kasept 03-21-2009 10:28 AM

AQU SCR'S


7

8 Dorothy's Essense Early
10 Laylaben Early


8

5 Living Out a Dream Early NO SUPERFECTA
7 Vinnie Van Go Early


9

2 Moonshine Alice Early

Kasept 03-21-2009 10:37 AM

Gulfstream Scratches & Changes

These changes added at 3/21/2009 10:21:07 AM Eastern Time

Early Changes: Saturday, March 21

Track: Sloppy Turf: Yielding

Rail: Race #4, #8, and 10 at 0 Feet
Rail: Race #6 96 Feet

Race 1: Scratch #6

Race 3: Scratch #8

Race 5: Scratch #1

Race 7: Scratch #1 #10 #12 #13 #16
Jockey Change: #11 Juan Leyva
Jockey Change: #14 Elvis Trujillo
Jockey Change: #15 Ariel Smith

Race 8: Scratch #11 #14 #15 #16

Race 9: Scratch #5 #8 #9 #10
Corrected Weight #2 Double Bug 115 lbs

Race 11: #3 #12 #13 #16

Kasept 03-21-2009 10:42 AM

MAGNA 5

http://www.magna5.com/scratches.aspx

LRL 9th: SCRATCHES: #1, #2, #6

Kasept 03-21-2009 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Holland Hacker
Steve,

As usual thanks for the picks. Did you mean to use the 8 (Dorothy's Essence) or the 9 (Imthequeenofqueens) in the first leg of your Big A Pick 4. On one ticket you have 2 - 8 and on the other you have the 2 -4 -5 - 9.

I know I've made mistakes like that before, just checking.

I also noticed that a horse Lauren Stitch was touting on your show is making his debut in the finale at Gulfstream, Purrfect Alibi and you excluded him. Is it the 10 hole that is scaring you?

GL
HH

HH,

Thx.. Fixed the 8/9 and 9 scratched anyway. Went with the single route in the AQU P4. Several scratches at GP resulted in restructured P4 and opened door for Zito's 15 in the 11th. Threw in the Mott as well. The race is wide open...

G/L today!

Kasept 03-21-2009 10:48 AM

TURFWAY PARK CHANGES

SATURDAY, MARCH 21, 2009
POLY TRACK: FAST

WEATHER: 58*, SUNNY
POST TIME: 1:10 PM

RACE 1
SCRATCH: #6 MICHAELS REVENGE
RIDER CHANGE: #7 GILBERT ESTRELLA

RACE 2
RIDER CHANGE: #2 PETER ARTIEDA

RACE 3
SCRATCH: #6 THUNDERING JILL
OVERWEIGHT: #1 +1

RACE 4
SCRATCH: #1a RAN RAN RAN
RIDER CHANGE: #7 CASEY CHAVEZ

RACE 5
NO CHANGES

RACE 6
SCRATCH: #8 MISS A BOMB

RACE 7
NO CHANGES

RACE 8
OVERWEIGHT: #5 +1

RACE 9
OVERWEIGHTS:
#1 +1
#3 +1
#4 +1
#7 +1

RACE 10
NO CHANGES

RACE 11
SCRATCH: #3 LOOKN MIGHTY FAST
SCRATCH: #4 YOU THE MON
SCRATCH: #5 BOURBON BEAR

RACE 12
SCRATCH: #1a TEMPO APPROVED
SCRATCH: #2 INSTALL
RIDER CHANGE: #1 FERNANDO DE LA CRUZ 122 LB
RIDER CHANGE: #13 JULIO FELIX

cassie 03-21-2009 12:24 PM

sloppy track at gulfstream probably off the grass :(

pointman 03-21-2009 12:28 PM

Early pk4 at Big A

2- 2,3
3- 1,4
4- 2,4,5,6,7
5- 1,3,4,5,7,9

Good Luck!

cassie 03-21-2009 12:50 PM

steve your 6 is scratched 9th gulf affects your magna and gulf pick 4

Kasept 03-21-2009 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cassie
steve your 6 is scratched 9th gulf affects your magna and gulf pick 4

Updated Gulfstream SCR'S:

Race 4 #9 Fancy Runner

Race 5 #1 Its Along Story

Race 7 #1 Smart Tomcat, #10 Mutianyu, #12 De Soto's Gold, #13 Bold Vindication, #16 Hayley's Victory

Race 8 #8 Torini, #11 Al Sensazionale, #14 Bold Abbott, #15 Big Al, #16 Niagara Thunder

Race 9 #5 Flight to Eden, #6 Big Red Hope, #8 I've Repented, #9 Fiumes, #10 Safe Play

Race 10 #7 Nergal (FR)

Race 11 #3 Courage to Be, #12 Carcillo, #13 No Detour, #15 Just Ben, #16 Bear Onamission

Kasept 03-21-2009 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cassie
sloppy track at gulfstream probably off the grass :(

YIELDING.. They aren't off the turf

pointman 03-21-2009 01:46 PM

Aqueduct 5th

$20W3
$20EX 3,9
$1 tri 3,9/3,9/all

Goof Luck!

Payson Dave 03-21-2009 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman
Aqueduct 5th

$20W3
$20EX 3,9
$1 tri 3,9/3,9/all

Goof Luck!

My luck is usually Goof Luck

pointman 03-21-2009 02:12 PM

That early was chalky, really thought I would get a price in the 5th. Stab at the late, the 10th is a skull buster to me, any of 6 could win IMO, using all on one ticket:

7- 2,4
8- 1,4
9- 5
10- ALL

7- 2,4
8- 1,4,5
9- 1,4,5
10- 1,2,3,4,6,7,9

Good Luck!

pointman 03-21-2009 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Payson Dave
My luck is usually Goof Luck

Certainly turned out that way for me.

herkhorse 03-21-2009 02:31 PM

Aq late 4

2-4-7-9/1/all/3-4-5 60.00

Handicappy 03-21-2009 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman
Certainly turned out that way for me.

Chalky chalky chalky I've hit all 4 pic 3's at Aqu and I am still down on the day.:zz:

herkhorse 03-21-2009 03:29 PM

magna play

7-8-9/1-3-5/3/1-4-6/1-3-5-8

Payson Dave 03-21-2009 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by herkhorse
Aq late 4

2-4-7-9/1/all/3-4-5 60.00


now (the 9th) would be a great time to beat the chalk


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