Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   The Paddock (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   WKND BSF's: Quality Road 113; 'Mousse 103 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28165)

Kasept 03-02-2009 07:02 AM

WKND BSF's: Quality Road 113; 'Mousse 103
 
Huge figure for Quality Road in the FOY and for Jojo too...


Fountain (GP): QUALITY ROAD 113; Theregoesjojo 105
Davona Dale (GP): JUSTWHISTLEDIXIE 97
Sham (SA): THE PAMPELMOUSSE 103; Take the Points 93
Baldwin (SA): BATTLE OF HASTINGS
Canadian Turf (GP): TWILIGHT METEOR 94

Stymie (AQU): Barrier Reef 99
Crystal Waters (SA): Medzendeekron 99
Borderland Derby (SUN): Scorewithcater/Mine That Bird 84
Battaglia (TP): Proceed Bee 73
Mountain Valley (OP): Citizen/Flying Private 85
Miracle Wood (LRL): Rock on Justin 84
King Glorious (GG): Charlie's Moment 87


MSW (GP): Affirmatif 94

The Indomitable DrugS 03-02-2009 07:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Huge figure for Quality Road in the FOY and for Jojo too...

Maybe could have been a few points higher as well.

You have to have US Treasury winning the 2nd race with just a 78 to get QR at 113.

Kasept 03-02-2009 07:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Maybe could have been a few points higher as well.

You have to have US Treasury winning the 2nd race with just a 78 to get QR at 113.

Funny you mentioned that Doug because US Treasury (One of Mrs. Weber's) caught my eye in the Winner's Book when accruing the figs and on the Stakes Review page:

QR more than 3 full seconds faster than Treasury, (est. 16L or so?), though more than 3.5 hours later on the card.

FOUNTAIN'S FRACTIONS: 23.83 - 45.55 - 1:09.40 - 1:35.01
Race 2 (MdnSplWt, 4+, 1m) 23.74 - 46.22 - 1:11.27 - 1:38.36

justindew 03-02-2009 08:27 AM

I'd really like to hear what people think about Take the Points' 7-point regression on the Beyer scale. I felt like he ran a strong race. And I guess he did. Just expected to see him higher than 93.

Also, there were several wire-to-wire winners at SA yesterday, including more than one at two turns. Although just about all of the winners were among the favorites.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-02-2009 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
QR more than 3 full seconds faster than Treasury, (est. 16L or so?), though more than 3.5 hours later on the card.

3.35 seconds at that distance would equal about 19.5 lengths.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-02-2009 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew
I'd really like to hear what people think about Take the Points' 7-point regression on the Beyer scale.

A 7 point regression is nothing when you're talking about going from like a 100 in a one-turn dirt mile to a 93 in a 9f synthetic route. Especially for a 3yo.

Actually, it might have been a somewhat improved race. He got that big dirt figure while up on a soft pace with an easy trip.

Kasept 03-02-2009 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
3.35 seconds at that distance would equal about 19.5 lengths.

!!!

mes5107 03-02-2009 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
3.35 seconds at that distance would equal about 19.5 lengths.


How long is a "length"? I usually use 10 feet, but I have never heard a definitive answer. If it is 10 feet, a horse coming home the final 1/8th in 13 seconds is covering a shade over 50 feet per second, or 5 lengths per second. If a length is indeed 10 feet then this would mean 3.35 seconds is 16 3/4 lengths.

Kasept 03-02-2009 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mes5107
How long is a "length"? I usually use 10 feet, but I have never heard a definitive answer. If it is 10 feet, a horse coming home the final 1/8th in 13 seconds is covering a shade over 50 feet per second, or 5 lengths per second. If a length is indeed 10 feet then this would mean 3.35 seconds is 16 3/4 lengths.

Some use the number you are thinking and many figure guys go to 6 lengths/second as Doug, and I believe CJ and Andy do.. I started years ago with 5 lengths/second and generally use that for quick calculations because of the relative mental ease of the number(s) when using it.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-02-2009 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mes5107
How long is a "length"? I usually use 10 feet, but I have never heard a definitive answer.

Studies show a horse length usually measures about 8.5 to 9 feet.

The old rule of thumb is that a length equals 1/5th of a second .... but to steal a line from Steve Davidowitz...."mathmatically speaking, a length should equal 1/5th of a second only when a horse travels a furlong in 15 seconds. The only horses who go that slow charge 10 cents a ride."

ateamstupid 03-02-2009 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Some use the number you are thinking and many figure guys go to 6 lengths/second as Doug, and I believe CJ and Andy do.. I started years ago with 5 lengths/second and generally use that for quick calculations because of the relative mental ease of the number(s) when using it.

1/5th of a second is for trotters. Resident math nerd philcski sent me a great PM a little while ago about figuring this kind of thing out. It varies per distance and class level obviously, but Phil says that the average number to use is about 6.11 lengths/second.

blackthroatedwind 03-02-2009 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Some use the number you are thinking and many figure guys go to 6 lengths/second as Doug, and I believe CJ and Andy do.. I started years ago with 5 lengths/second and generally use that for quick calculations because of the relative mental ease of the number(s) when using it.



Few would admit this.

mes5107 03-02-2009 09:24 AM

Ok, using the 8.5 feet for a length yields approx 19.5 lengths. Does the Beyer figure system still use the charts which assign lengths and points behind according to distance? I've seen 9 furlong dirt races come home with a 14 second final quarter, and I've seen them come home in 12 seconds. Using just a chart based on distance does not give an accurate representation of lengths behind.

King Glorious 03-02-2009 09:36 AM

I think that most people use .16 seconds per length now. At that rate. 3.35 seconds would equal 21 lengths.

Kasept 03-02-2009 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Few would admit this.

LOL.. Strictly a matter of simplicity I guess from the way I started out doing it. I then make the adjustment after the simpler initial calculation. Just a mental process...

mes5107 03-02-2009 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
I think that most people use .16 seconds per length now. At that rate. 3.35 seconds would equal 21 lengths.

.16 sec/length translates roughly to a 12 2/5 second final 1/8 of a mile. If all races finished at that speed, that would work just fine. However, a slower horse is going to take a longer amount of time to cover a length than a faster one and I think determining the distance of one horse behind another when only given the time interval is very dependent upon the final speeds of both horses in question.

Thunder Gulch 03-02-2009 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
A 7 point regression is nothing when you're talking about going from like a 100 in a one-turn dirt mile to a 93 in a 9f synthetic route. Especially for a 3yo.

Actually, it might have been a somewhat improved race. He got that big dirt figure while up on a soft pace with an easy trip.

Agree. The surface change is tough to account for nowadays.

the_fat_man 03-02-2009 12:06 PM

This kind of points to what the focus of horseplayers demanding change in the industry should be: MORE ACCURATE TIMING (and thus data) for EVERY HORSE.

There's no excuse for not having a system like Trakus in place for EVERY TRACK.

In the meantime, the track heads must be thrilled that the focus of horseplayers is on cheaters.

Danzig 03-02-2009 12:08 PM

i had also always been told fifths per length-never thought about what that meant for a furlong time.
filing away 1/6th for future reference.

Bobby Fischer 03-02-2009 12:29 PM

a length = 8ft


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:21 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.