2/28: AQU & GP P4's; Magna 5; 3yo Stakes
 

Santa Anita P6 carryovers put a nice dent in the wallet Wednesday and Thursday as just two players were able to claim the $930,000 reward. Saturday's action won't be producing numbers like that, but the Guaranteed Aqueduct P4 and especially the Magna 5 are very difficult sequences that look capable of generating generous, if not life-changing, returns.

The Fountain of Youth will create a buzz horse or two for the Florida and Kentucky Derby Trails, but remember that it's still just a late-in-the-game one turn mile. As such, a heretofore confirmed sprint type like Taqarub, Quality Road or even Notonthesamepage (a failure in his previous 2-turn try), can exit the FOY a winner and continue to be an utter unknown quantity for the serious route running that lies ahead. The longer you follow Triple Crown season racing, the more difficult it is getting to decipher the clues of who is rose blanket timber...


AQUEDUCT

6th: MSW, 3+, 6f ($250k Guaranteed P4, P3, DD, Super)

As we learned during the Cali Carry Chase this week, P4 players likely need to spread as far as you can afford here with a confusing jumble of heavily-raced and unraced maidens..

Most Likely: #7 Hot to Trot 7-2 9th
Best Value: #3 Driven by Saarland 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Manchild 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 No Questions 6-1 WON


7th: NYB ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Future Prospect 6-1 9th
Best Value: #7 Conquer the Fear 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Buy a Personality 5-2 4th
Super Add: #9 Gargantua 15-1 6th


8th: 54th Stymie H., 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Researcher 3-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Barrier Reef 5-2 WON
Best Value: #6 True Resurgence 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Manteca 8-1 4th


9th: CLM/N1Y, 4+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Double or Nothing 9-5 WON
Next Best: #6 Yelt 7-2 9th
Best Value: #3 Hedge Fund 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 SCR


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-7-8-9
7: 1-2-7-9-10
8: 2
9: 3-4-6

5x5x1x3 = $75



GULFSTREAM

7th: OC/N$Y, 3+, 7f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Motovoto 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Freedom Bay 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Pictural 5-1 WON


8th: 43rd Canadian Turf (Gr. III), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Vanquisher 5-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Twilight Meteor 12-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Just as Well 3-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Rogue Victory 12-1 6th


9th: 63rd Fountain of Youth (Gr. II), 3yo, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Notonthesamepage 4-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Theregoesjojo 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Capt. Candyman Can 5-1 5th
Super Add: #11 Quality Road 8-1 WON


10th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Seeking the Sluice 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Virsito 8-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Cardiologist 7-2 12th
Super Add: #2 Misty Oak 6-1 9th


$100/$50 P5 Plays:

7: 6 (4)
8: 1-7-8-9-11
9: 2-3-9-11-12
10: 2-3-7-9

2x5x5x4 = 200 x .50 = $100
1x5x5x4 = 100 x .50 = $50



MAGNA 5

A.) LRL 9th: CLM, 3yo, 7f (Super)

Most Likely: #2e Tullock entry 8-5 WON
Best Value: #9 Cradle of Peace 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Home Skillet 10-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Orchestrated 6-1 3rd


B.) SA 4th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Stunningly well-matched group of veteran $40k claimers, but there may not be a single person at Arcadia that isn't rooting for the tragic Ortega Family's #5 Return of the King..

Most Likely: #5 Return of the King 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Steady Demand 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1e Carava entry 4-1 WON
Exotics Use: #7 SCR


C.) 63rd Fountain of Youth (Gr. II), 3yo, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Notonthesamepage 4-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Theregoesjojo 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Capt. Candyman Can 5-1 5th
Super Add: #11 Quality Road 8-1 WON


D.) GG 4th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Mim's Man 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Pleasure Grounds 6-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Game of Luck 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Castle Dermot 7-2 WON


E.) SA 5th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Tough Apples 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Powerofvoodoo 8-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Bootleg Annie 3-1 WON
Super Add: #2 Wondrous Event 7-2 6th


$300-$150-$75 Magna 5 Plays:

A: 2 (9)
B: 1-3-5
C: 2-3-9-11-12
D: 1-3-4-5-6
E: 8 (3)

2x3x5x5x2 = $300
1/2x3x5x5x1 = $150
1x3x5x5x1 = $75



3 YEAR OLD STAKES AROUND THE COUNTRY


LAUREL PARK

8th: 15th Miracle Wood, 3yo, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Rock On Justin 3-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Lucky Real Lucky 5-1 7th
Next Best: #6 In the Juice 5-2 5th



TURFWAY PARK

11th: 27th Battaglia Memorial, 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Parade Clown 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Stratos 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Proceed Bee 4-1 WON
Super Add: #6 Shanes Gold 8-1 4th



OAKLAWN PARK

9th: 69th Mountain Valley, 3yo, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Dance Caller 5-2 4th
Next Best: #3 Big Push 4-1 7th
Best Value: #4 N.Y. Wise Guy 12-1 DNF
Super Add: #7 Lyin' Heart 9-2 3rd



SUNLAND PARK

11th: 9th Borderland Derby, 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Mine That Bird 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Scorewithcater 3-1 WON
Best Value: #9 SCR
Super Add: #8 Dumar 5-1 5th



GOLDEN GATE FIELDS

8th: King Glorious H., 3yo, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Ultra Blend 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Mr. Monkey Jones 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Free Action 12-1 6th



SANTA ANITA

8th: 9th Sham (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 The Pampelmousse 9-5 WON
Best Value: #11 Unbridled Roman 12-1 5th
Next Best: #12 Take the Points 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Tiz True 30-1 9th



Good luck!
Steve

Does leaving Beethoven off scare you?

No..




Clowns scare me.

Yes, they can be quite scary, but they are very unlikely to cost you the P-4 at Gulfstream today. My thought is that Beethoven might do that.
It is obviously a tough race, and I realize that you have to exclude somebody to make it a playable wager, but I was very impressed with his effort in the Holy Bull. I also like that he is cutting back and figures to be just off the pace, while most of the other contenders are stretching out.

lol.. now that's funny good one..

Well, uh, yeah... Trying the single in the first leg can beat the ticket... Any one of 3-4 others can beat it in the Canadian... EVERYONE not used in the Fountain can bust it... Any firster in the turf maiden nightcap can beat it.

What are you supposed to do? Go 8x10x11x10? You like Beethoven. Great. He undoubtedly can win. Despite John Ward.

Steve,

Please double check I think Ventana is the #9 in the Sham, not the #6 (Belfour Park)

Thanks again for all the inputs, and BOL today!

Thx J.. Indeed... Ventana is the #9.

I totally agree Steve gotta try to narrow down someplace, lots of pitfalls in the squence. Great points, and good luck today.

No. He can't.

:tro:

AQU SCRATCHES/CHANGES:


1

4 Dr Silver Packet Early NO SUPERFECTA
7 End of an Era Early


5

5 Saratoga Lulaby Early NO SUPERFECTA
9 Counting House Early


6

4 Peytons Heart Early
6 We Get It Early


7

4 Hoist the Gala Early


9

1 Spiriton Early


OTHER

6

1 Brook Dance RIDGELING
3 Driven by Saarland GELDING


7

10 Future Prospect BLINKERS ON

Right, obviously you have to limit the ticket, and it is a tough sequence I think. More than anything, I was just interested in getting your opinion regarding what it was that you didn't like about Beethoven in this spot.

For a Sky Mesa out of a Carson City mare, he's surpringly slow for a race like this. And at this racetrack, the way it's been playing to speed and the way this race looks like it will be run, he may lose contact with the front half of the field and be left with too much to do going the flat mile.

Steve,

Does Passager have any chance in the Canadian Turf? Thinking of using him in the OTB contest.

He probably does, but I have no idea what to do with him. I'm the worst when it comes to anticipating Euro performance. (Unless they're Dutch, Danish or Finnish girls. Then I know EXACTLY what to expect..)

GULFSTREAM -- Saturday, February 28 -- EARLY CHG'S

Track: Fast Turf: Firm Rail: 36 Feet

Race 3: Scratch #6

Race 4: Scratch #8
#10 First Time Lasix

Race 5: Scratch #2

Race 6: #5 #11
Jockey Changes: #3 C H Marquez Jr.
#10 Manuel Aguilar

Race 7: Scratch #1 (POE) #5 #7 #9

Race 9: Scratch #4 #6

Race 10: Scratch #13 #14 #15 #16

;)

Magna 5 SCR/CHG'S


CHECK HERE FOR WEST COAST UPDATES:
http://www.magna5.com/scratches.aspx


Laurel 9

Track: Fast
Weather: Low 40's, Mostly Cloudy and Breezy
Scratches: #1a, #2


B Santa Anita 4


C Gulfstream 9

Track: Fast
Weather: 80F, Partly Sunny
Scratches: #4, #6


D Golden Gate 4


E Santa Anita 5

SANTA ANITA SCR'S

Race 1 #8 Comical Alibi
Race 9 #9 Ventana, #4 Lifeline