2/11: Aqueduct; Gulfstream (P4's)
 

Enjoyed the wide array of high level stakes action nationwide Saturday but spent most of the day running luke warm to cold wagering wise. Never found the big score on the afternoon, though some OK random hits kept me motivated to continue betting. Hope you did OK...

Synthetic-based contests in California continue to be fine by me for wagering purposes, but evaluating talent levels, particularly for the 3 year olds, remains undefinable. While Pioneerof the Nile, as well as Papa Clem and I Want Revenge, may be 'nice' horses to varying degrees, it's as impossible to know how they would fair versus SE/SW, NY and FL sophs as it was last year vis a vis Colonel John, Gayego, Bob Black Jack, etc..

I expect that a West Coast developer will come East this Spring or Summer and win on dirt impressively somewhere. But you aren't going to be able to tell which one is going to do it, unless a horse bred in the purple for real main tracks is so dominant that his superiority is obvious. Still waiting for that.

In the meantime, though I stopped with Derby Top 10 lists a while back, here are 5 that I like best as Derby inevitablities...

1. Old Fashioned (FG-OP) L. Jones
2. Hello Broadway (FL) Tagg
3. Chocolate Candy (No. CA) Hollendorfer
4. Free Country (FL) McPeek
5. Patena (FL) Dutrow

...and 5 that intrigue me for various reasons, or that I hope move forward toward Louisville. And if you're wondering where the Dubai-based headliners are, I'll let them make there way back to North America in one piece before becoming concerned with them.

A. Flat Out (FG-OP) Dickey
B. Mr. Hot Stuff (SA) Harty
C. Gresham (FG-OP) Baker
D. Theregoesjojo (FL) McPeek
E. West Side Bernie (FL) Breen



AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: NYB-CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

For a state bred $25k claiming event, this is a really fun race.. Am going to try to get a price involved, and will likely use #8 Brockly Rob in the mix with the change to Lopez in a group with questionable pace credentials..

Most Likely: #1a (POE) SCR
Best Value: #4 Sister's Speed 15-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Red Hot Baby 5-1 WON
Exotics Use: #2e Grusmark entry 15-1 8th/9th


7th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m (P3, DD)

Near-perfect Levine state-bred tries strange 'open company' ALW which drew 5 other Empire-born missees and an Emerald Isle import.. Go figure.

Most Likely: #1 Lights Off Annie 7-5 4th
Next Best: #5 Asbeautifulasyou 5-2 6th
Best Value: #4 Say Toba Sandy 6-1 WON


8th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Labadeel 6-5 6th
Next Best: #3 Pu Dew 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Motor City Mama 10-1 2nd


9th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 1m (Super)

Call me a degenerate, but here's another fun race considering the competition level.. Not convinced that #1 Run From Hell is much horse, but Ramon certainly dangerous drawing rail as controlling speed.. Will use 2 big prices stretching out in exotics and P4: #5 Say New York Sandy (15-1) and #4 Determined Again (10-1) both show career best efforts going 8f+, races that could get it done here should the obvious ones fail..

Most Likely: #2 Gold Close to Home 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Run From Hell 3-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Nolite Timere 5-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Determined Again 10-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-4-5-8-9
7: 1-5
8: 5
9: 1-2-3-4-5-9

6x3x1x6 = $72



GULFSTREAM


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Lucky Liza 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Truckride 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Brandy Bai 3-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Swing Music 6-1 WON

$1 Exacta (10-6) Paid $36.10
$1 Trifecta (10-6-3) Paid $126.30


7th: S/ALW, 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Mecke Me Free 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Champagne Brunch 6-1 WON
Next Best: #12 Gold House 8-1 9th
Super Add: #7 Warrior's Way 4-1 5th


8th: ALW/N$Y, 4+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Stevil 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 East End Tap 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Forty Zip 4-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Pegasian 12-1 4th


9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 9f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 SCR
Best Value: #5 Mimi's Kids 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Thin Disguise 10-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Treasure Trail 6-1 6th


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 3-5-6-7-9-10
7: 4-9
8: 3-7
9: 2-3-5-11

6x2x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

I agree that the AQU 6th is interesting, but I feel like I'm gonna go 6-7 wide in the race and then watch Saturdaynitesandy win at 3-2. I also agree on Determined Again in the finale. Could pop at a price.

Oey..

It's an exceptionally quirky set of races. Am really looking forward to it though we are doing a special today on ATR ("Kentucky in Crisis") that I am very busy preparing...

Anxious to see if SCR's change up anything in the sequence... G/L today!

AQU SCR'S


1

1A Aunt Alma Early


4

1A Gold Prospect Early


5

1 (poe) Port Rock Early
2B Wild Holly Early


8

2 Rain Delay Early

Gulfstream -- Early Changes: Wednesday, February 11

Track: Fast Turf: Firm Rail 48 Feet

Race 1: Scratch #1

Race 2: Scratch #4 #10 #14 #15 #16

Race 3:
Jockey Change #10 Jermaine Bridgmohan

Race 4: Scratch #9

Race 5: Scratch #13 #14 #15 #16

Race 6: Scratch #4 #11

Race 7: Scratch #5 #13 #14 #15 #16
Jockey Change #7 Jermaine Bridgmohan

Race 8: Scratch #2

Race 9: #9 #13 #14 #15 #16
Jockey Change #4 Julien Leparoux

Looking forward to listening to the "KIC" piece today.

Split larger ticket with brother, the rest is at it alone. Hoping Chinsegut Bay runs out of his skin today.:o... GL Steve and to all playing!

.50

3,7
7,9,12
3,4,6,9
2,5,11

$1

3,5,7,10
4,12
3,9
2

R8
$10 W #9 (Chinsegut Bay)

$62 total...44 of which is mine..GL all!!!

Jesustapdancingchrist... I changed my play and blew this sequence.. Was 5x3x1x5 and tried to spread a little further on the top and bottom and outsmarted myself. Uggh...

Mmmm.. I feel better. Wouldn't have had the winner of the 8th..

Well, that was fun. :o