Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   Joe Silverio Simulcast Center (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=3)
-   -   2/4: Gulfstream (6th-9th); Aqueduct (3rd) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27651)

Kasept 02-04-2009 08:49 AM

2/4: Gulfstream (6th-9th); Aqueduct (3rd)
 
Late getting to the tabs today.. Looking forward to a good day of racing action but am largely focused on the Turfway 3rd and Rampillion this afternoon. Enjoy the day!


AQUEDUCT


SPOT PLAY


3rd (1:26pm): CLM, F&M-3yo, 6f (P3, DD, NO Superfecta)

Best Value: #6 Mocha Shake 12-1: State-bred butchered by Napravnik 1/14; MDN-break Maragh back aboard with return to claiming ranks; Price square and may get garden stalking trip outside likely pacesetters drawn to her left.. 7th
Most Likely: #5 SCR
Next Best: #9 Could Be Us 9-2 4th
Super Add: #8 SCR



GULFSTREAM


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Glaslyn 6-1: Nightmare trip last.. 5th
Most Likely: #5 Triqueta 3-1 WON
Next Best: #12 Autumn Ash 10-1 10th
Super Add: #9 Unbridled Essence 20-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (5-9) Paid $23.10


6th: ALW/N$Y, F&M-4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Wish Me Success 4-1 4th
Next Best: #3 SCR
Exotics Use: #8 Choragus 7-2 WON


7th: ALW/N$Y, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

#13 (AE) Obseqious from Liz Gray is a must should she draw in..

Best Value: #4 True Birkin 6-1 4th
Most Likely: #7 Pull Dancer 7-2 6th
Next Best: #6 Tailbytherail 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Our Dahlia 8-1 WON


8th: OC/N$Y, 4+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Deputy Indy 5-1 9th
Best Value: #8 Cosmic 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Dr. Pleasure 3-1 WON
Super Add: #9 SCR


9th: MSW, F&M-4+, 5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #6 LITTLE MISS JULIEN 3-1 4th
Best Value: #12 Quiet Harbor 8-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Sophisticated Lass 4-1 5th
Super Add: #11 Believeinthemoment 6-1 8th


<$50 P4 Play:

6: [3/SCR]-5-8
7: 4-6-7-9
8: 1-3-7-[8/SCR]
9: 6

2x4x3x1 = $24


Good luck!
Steve

saratoga chuck 02-04-2009 09:15 AM

My Focus ........ Gulfstream 3rd!
 
MLL, had a little lay off - new trainer :) 1st time for a tag! Bad post - tries open company for the first time....... lets see how far she goes:D

Kasept 02-04-2009 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saratoga chuck
MLL, had a little lay off - new trainer :) 1st time for a tag! Bad post - tries open company for the first time....... lets see how far she goes:D

S/C..

Nice!! Good luck today with Lovely Lark!

blackthroatedwind 02-04-2009 09:51 AM

Glaslyn was in some traffic....but ultimately had no run.

Nightmare trip?

There are at least two much more interesting trips in that race.

saratoga chuck 02-04-2009 09:51 AM

Thanks Steve!
 
Just checked the scratches and Trippi's Holiday drew in so it looks like we will have some company on the front end:eek:

Kasept 02-04-2009 10:07 AM

Early Changes: Wednesday, February 4

Track: Fast Turf: Firm Rail: 24 Feet

CASTELLANO off his mounts today...

Race 1: Scratch #6
Jockey Change: #11 Rene Douglas

Race 2: Scratch #1
Jockey Change: #6 Edgar Prado

Race 3: Scratch #7 #14 #15 #16
Jockey Changes #6 E Nunez #13 M Cruz

Race 4: Scratch #10
Jockey Change #4 Manny Aguilar 120lbs.

Race 5: Scratch #13 #14 #15 #16
Jockey Change #7 Rene Douglas

Race 6:
Jockey Change #5 Cornelio Velasquez

Race 7: Scratch #13
Jockey Change #3 Manoel Cruz

Race 8:
Jockey Change #7 Alan Garcia

Race 9: Scratch #7 #13
Jockey Change #10 Joe Bravo

colt 45ss 02-04-2009 10:09 AM

turfway 3rd
 
rampillion does look supertough
any 411 that isnt shown in the drf?
thanks as always

Kasept 02-04-2009 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Glaslyn was in some traffic....but ultimately had no run. Nightmare trip? There are at least two much more interesting trips in that race.

I saw the Glaslyn race and thought she had enough trouble to warrant a next out opportunity...

Remarkable Romance, Perf and Alkmaar all noted as well with trouble lines. Which one(s) stuck out for you?

Kasept 02-04-2009 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by colt 45ss
rampillion does look supertough
any 411 that isnt shown in the drf?
thanks as always

colt..

She got there yesterday and should be ready to run a good one. Horses from behind her in the last race have come back to run well. Everyone is hopeful of a good, safe, trip and successful effort.

blackthroatedwind 02-04-2009 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
I saw the Glaslyn race and thought she had enough trouble to warrant a next out opportunity...

Remarkable Romance, Perf and Alkmaar all noted as well with trouble lines. Which one(s) stuck out for you?


I wasn't thinking of any of them. Obviously Remarkable Romance and Alkmaar had poor trips ( Alkmaar was more an embarrassing ride ) but they both come out of bad races.

Horses to bet back off of races don't always necessarily have trouble. In fact, little is more overrated than supposed trouble.

Kasept 02-04-2009 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I wasn't thinking of any of them. Obviously Remarkable Romance and Alkmaar had poor trips ( Alkmaar was more an embarrassing ride ) but they both come out of bad races.

Horses to bet back off of races don't always necessarily have trouble. In fact, little is more overrated than supposed trouble.

Point taken. As Chuck often quotes Mr. Jerkens, "Turf racing.. Where one horse wins and 6 should have."

the_fat_man 02-04-2009 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
9th: MSW, F&M-4+, 5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #6 LITTLE MISS JULIEN 3-1
Best Value: #12 Quiet Harbor 8-1
Next Best: #3 Sophisticated Lass 4-1
Super Add: #11 Believeinthemoment 6-1

This race, IMO, is a much more playable turf sprint than either of the two TURF PROJECT races.

I don't have access to the headon of Little Miss Julien's last race. It appears, from the pan shot, that she was herded/intimidated by the leader late. If this is the case, then not passing a horse that had dueled early in the lane, when she had every chance, can be explained. In any event, I'm not so sure that she has to win, though she'll probably get a perfect setup.

A horse I like, even with just about the worst connections imaginable, is Ellewinkle. She clearly wants to be sprinting on the turf, would've been at least 2nd last out (the turf sprint race) if not for a trouble trip and will be running best of all late.

I'll use her with the favorite in exactas and bet her to win if she's greater than her morning line.

Kasept 02-04-2009 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
This race, IMO, is a must more playable turf sprint than either of the two TURF PROJECT races..

I would have used this for the Turf Sprint project but the PP's weren't freely available to the masses...

the_fat_man 02-04-2009 11:41 AM

They are; under Winstar Farms (Valid Humor) over at Bris.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:45 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.