10/24: Breeders' Cup Selections (Friday)
 

25th BREEDERS' CUP -- OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA



3rd: BC Filly & Mare Sprint, F&M-3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Even with anticipated scratch of Indyanne, the pace of this affair appears hotter than a typical seven-eighths event. Stalkers/Closers should have the set up they look for. While Indian Blessing is surely the horse to beat after brilliant managed campaign, Ventura and Zaftig are coming up to this on pitch and should make this one of the weekend's most exciting races.

Best Value: #12 Ventura 5-1: Handled like '00 Sprint runner-up Honest Lady.. WON
Most Likely: #5 Indian Blessing 2-1: Becoming a bet-against as week draws on.. 2nd
Next Best: #6 Zaftig 8-1: Huge upset chance if close to Acorn form.. 3rd
Super Add: #3 Intangaroo 9-2: Low figs deceptive; Serious horse best at 7 panels.. 6th
Deep Exotics: #8 Tiz Elemental (20-1) 13th; #10 Miraculous Miss (20-1) 4th

$1 Exacta (12-5) Paid $12.70
$1 Trifecta (12-5-6) Paid $48.70
$1 Superfecta (12-5-6-10) Paid $733.30



4th: BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Sugar Mom 10-1: Hard to argue with Catalano magic.. 7th
Most Likely: #11 Saucey Evening 9-2: Should work out necessary trip.. 4th
Next Best: #7 Consequence 8-1: Outfit never runs girls that can't compete.. 6th
Super Add: #2 Laragh 7-2: With one below her, appears solid enough.. 3rd
Deep Exotics: #4 C Karma 8-1: Why is she twice the price of Laragh? 8th



5th: BC Juvenile Fillies (Gr. I), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

May be Friday's most interesting race from a wagering standpoint with logicals either slightly compromised by post draw or less attractive at their quoted ML tote than you would want. Certainly tough to swallow 2-1 on Paasch's very nice Stardom Bound when at least 4-5 have already established their parity with her from a speed figure standpoint..

Best Value: #6 Van Lear Rose 30-1: Yet to regress; Repeat of last can win this.. 6th
Most Likely: #10 Stardom Bound 2-1: Rock solid but will need even more yet.. WON
Next Best: #8 C. S. Silk 15-1: Moving up on radar screens by looking better each morning.. 7th
Super Add: #4 Sky Diva 7-2: Stunning in Frizette but back fast from big effort.. 3rd
Deep Exotics: #2 Persistently 15-1 5th



<$25 P3 Play:

3: 12
4: 2-4-7-8-11
5: 2-4-6-8-10

1x5x5 = $25



6th: BC Filly & Mare Turf, 3+, 10f-T (P3, DD, Super)

O'Brien Irish-bred Halfway to Heaven is emerging as Ballydoyle's banker for the weekend having been within 3 lengths of Zarkava at Paris in the Springtime, and a three time Group 1 winner since.. May waltz.

Most Likely: #8 Halfway to Heaven 4-1: Multiple Group I winner will adore this surface.. 6th
Best Value: #3 Forever Together 6-1: Sheppard-Strawbridge miss has been terrific.. WON
Next Best: #5 Wait a While 3-1: Perfect this course; Nearly perfect this trip.. 3rd
Super Add: #7 Mauralakana 5-1: Clement mare always runs her race.. 5th
Deep Exotics: #4 Visit 15-1: Competitive with pick; Looks good physically.. 4th



7th: BC Ladies Classic (Gr. I), 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super, Super Hi 5)

Keep expecting Shirreffs-Moss monster Zenyatta to be seriously challenged, and she just keeps winning effortessly. Sure hard to simply 'give' her this event with such nice competition lining up though. Belongs at the top of the majority your plays, but be a little defensive in your multi-race plays..

Most Likely: #1 Zenyatta 3-5: Unbeaten, but still needs to pass 'em all; Not a lock.. WON
Best Value: #2 Hysterical Lady 15-1: Will be underbet off last; Expect better here.. 5th
Next Best: #6 Ginger Punch 9-2: Not exactly pointed here but expect good effort.. 6th
Super Add: #3 Cocoa Beach 8-1: Dazzled in the a.m. and seems poised for big effort.. 2nd



8th: 39th Las Palmas (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Black Mamba 5-2 7th
Best Value: #2 Lightmyfirebaby 15-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Valbenny 6-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Lemon Chiffon 10-1 3rd; #13 Gotta Have Her 15-1 5th



<$100 P4 Play:

5: 2-4-6-8-10
6: 3-8
7: 1-2-3-4-6
8: 1-2

5x2x5x2 = $100



Good luck!
Steve

Do you really believe C. Sutherland can win a Breeder's Cup race? She'll be 40-1. I don't see it.
You left out Maram in the Juvy Turf for local trainer C. Brown. Her last came back slow on Beyers, but not on the Rags. She's training well and Chad knows how to handle the shipping, having worked for Frankel.

If Stewie Elliott can win a Derby then Chantal Sutherland can win a Cup race. She's been riding superbly and the horse looks absolutely terrific on track. Maram and Freedom Rings both appeal to me but seem a notch below the best here. Would love to have used but have to draw the line somewhere.

Steve,
Hope you are enjoying Cal. Been listening to show everyday GREAT
Need to know what you think of Caliornia flag in turf sprint like what I saw in PP
any input would help:

Steve....How's the weather been out there?

Thx Doug.. Glad you're enjoying the show. It's been tremendous fun...

I would LOVE to get behind Cal Flag as he is working great, looks super and will be priced over the top. The problem is the running style on the 6.5.. So tough to win on the lead down the hill. But if you believe, he'll reward you. I'll say one thing. He fits what I called the 'Bet on Sunshine' local sprinter angle that applies typically to the main track Sprint.

Gloriously beautiful since arriving Saturday, but they say the Santa Anas are picking up and you can expect 90 degree temps for Friday and Saturday..

Wow! Just a bit warmer than the 35 in Fort Plain right now. ;)

Thanks Steve for quick come back you do help us all with this game. enjoy the day and will be watching for picks and post Have fun and be safe

Hey Steve,
Got to agree with you on Sugar Mom. But I don't get why Coa is riding for Catalano on Friday and Saturday. I saw a quote from Wayne that said "Mr. Calabrese picks the jockeys," but it seems like an odd fit.

I love both Catalano's horses, but can't stand Coa...what's your reccomendation?

Catalano has no say in jockeys, it is all the boss. I am surprised that Douglas isn't aboard Lewis Michael and Sugar Mom, especially since Douglas has had some success with Lewis Michael....

Filly & Mare Sprint: Miraculous Miss has not worked since Oct7....Any thoughts on why not?

I am actually curious now if Coa has ever experienced the wrath of this crew? Might be worth the price of admission to be around Coa after he rides for these guys.......

Steve: What do you think of the theory that European horses dont break from the gate as well as their American counterparts...Halfway to Heaven is the one I am thinking will not break well in the Filly & Mare Turf. If she breaks slow its over for her.

The DRF says that Coa has ridden for Catalano 15 times in the past year and won at 40%. That's about 39% more than he has won for me. The guy has to be the most frustrating rider to have your money on. It's especially odd in the sprint with Louis Michael, since Douglas came out to CA to win the Pat O'Brian with a 102 BSF.

Douglas contracted the moron virus recently, he has been in love with being 5w around two turns most of the race and then wondering why he has no horse

Especially on big days, he seems to turn it up a notch....Some guys just don't run for certain people, this I can understand, I can't hit Tyler Baze at all, little bitch always f's me somehow

Coa always finds a way to lose and somehow manages to always keep his horses in trouble. You can never single a Coa horse in a pick-six. He's great at Gulfstream and Aqueduct in insignificant races, but he's not the guy you want in a big race.

That being said, I've got to include both Catalano horses on my tickets...but I'll be spreading.

Interesting seeing you put up Van Lear Rose. I noticed she was very close to Laragh a while back, who is listed at 7-2 ml odds in the Juv Turf