10/17: BEL (Showcase/$121 C/O); KEE (Stakes, P4)
 

Missed first 2 legs of Keeneland carryover Friday before running the table with rather mundane winners for a $115.00 quad and 4 exactas worth less than $100.00 total. Better than losing... The "6" was hit for $237,000 by a single play, which needed to include the hard to figure $125.00 Argentinian winner of the 6th from Raja Malek and $14.00 Holthus firster in the 5th. Hope you did well...

Last weekend of action before Breeders' includes New York bred Showcase Day at Belmont with added bonus of $121,000 double carryover. This is always a fun betting day at Elmont. Two nice graded stakes, including Phil the Power in the Sycamore, anchor a juicy looking P4 at Keeneland today, and the Calder card is really superb featuring more than $1,100,000 in stakes and many juveniles worth keeping an eye on...

Leave for Los Angeles late this afternoon for a weeks worth of "At the Races" which should bring you the best of the action and info from Santa Anita...


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: 15th Sleepy Hollow, 2yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Legal Consent 8-1
Most Likely: #6 Trinity Magic 8-5
Next Best: #8 Fiddlers Afleet 5-1
Exotics Use: #7 Head Hoof Heart 15-1


5th: 15th Maid of the Mist, 2yo-F, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e R. Dutrow entry 4-1
Best Value: #2 Got Clearance 6-1
Next Best: #4 Sneakin Up 3-1
Exotics Use: #10 Seek On 5-1


6th: 31st Hudson H., 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Like the Breeder's Cup Sprint... with New York Breds!

SCR #7 Premium Wine 7-2

Most Likely: #4 Ferocious Fires 9-2
Next Best: #8 Rollers 3-1
Best Value: #12 Irish Blast 15-1
Super Adds: #11 Mr. Windjammer 50-1


7th: 28th Ticonderoga H., F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Chestoria 8-1
Most Likely: #1 You Go West Girl 3-1
Next Best: #7 Nehantic Cat 6-1
Super Add: #5 Love Cove 5-1


8th: 30th Iroquois H., F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Talking Treasure 7-2
Next Best: #9 By the Light 5-2
Best Value: #11 Under Serviced 5-1
Exotics Use: #6 Street Sass 12-1

.10 Super Play: Key 5 1st/2nd with 3-6-9-10-11 (1x5x4x3 = 60 x 2 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)


9th: 30th Mohawk H., 3+, 9f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Banrock 2-1
Best Value: #11 Logic Way 12-1
Next Best: #10 Al Basha 7-2
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Get Serious; #8 Self Made Man 20-1


10th: 33rd Empire Clasic, 3+, 9f (Super)

SCR #1 R Clear Victory

Most Likely: #8 Tommasi 7-2
Best Value: #11 Dr. D.F.C. 8-1
Next Best: #4 Spanky Fischbein 6-1


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-2-4
6: 4-8
7: 1-3-5-7
8: 5-9
9: 5-11
10: 8

3x2x4x2x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192


@$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-5-7
8: 5-9
9: 1-5-8-10-11
10: 8-11

4x2x5x2 = $80



KEENELAND


PRE-SCRATCHES


7th: 14th Sycamore (Gr. III), 3+, 12f-T (P4, P3, Super)

Best Value: #8 Phil the Power 12-1
Most Likely: #4 Transduction Gold 7-2
Next Best: #2 Telling 12-1


9th: 10th Raven Run (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 7f

Most Likely: #3 Informed Decision 3-1
Best Value: #4 Ride Em Cowgirl 12-1
Next Best: #10 Secret Gypsy 9-2
Super Add: #2 Spring Awakening 12-1


<$100 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-8
8: 1-3-4-5
9: 3-4
10: 1-4-9-11

3x4x2x4 = $96


Good luck!
Steve

Hey Steve,

What's you plans for ATR next week? Anything special from a time/coverage angle?

Thanks,

Spyder

Regular programming.. 4-7pm EST daily (M-F).. Just expecting a parade of great guests. Trainers, owners, clockers, riders, writers, broadcasters, track and BC management, celebrities, the Governator.. You know, the usual.

Was thinking about pitching an early Saturday morning show to Sirius for before Finley and Johnson, but it would have to be 5-8am or 6-8am Pacific Coast Time (!) and I'm not sure it's practical...

Maybe an Internet Special for 7-9 PCT (10-12 EST)? That's a possibility. Kind of a final handicapping notes deal...

Should be a fun week.. Feel free to suggest things you want to hear!

Thanks,

For me, I'd like to hear a handicapping session with some of the top cappers going over the races. Something like a three way discussion with people like Andy, John White, and Seth going over their picks and pace senerio. With horses coming from all over the world, discussion on pace would be very interesting as that's the hardest thing to figure out on BC days. Advance notice would be great to make plans to listen.

Spyder

For what it's worth, I think Premium Wine is scratching.

yep he is in the sale I think

4
11 Show Me the Cash Early

6
7 Premium Wine Early

7
10 Crazy Catlady Early
11 Sagamoon Early
12 Vladimira Early

9
12 Kettle Two Early
13 Allaboutmack Early

10
1 R Clear Victory Early

New York breds seem to be fkn in the backyard of every other house in New York....(Ubiquitous individuals.)

City On Line is an interesting N.Y bred that raced respectively in France at longer distances and now shows up in NA in a turf sprint.

Belmont Late $1 pick 3 ticket

8th: 1,3,5,6,9
9th: 1,2,5,9,11
10th: 11

American Land in the 2nd at Belmont.

Great card. Thoroughly enjoy this day... not putting a huge amount of bankroll on the line today with the big one next week but hae a few thoughts...

R7 M/L favorite Rewrite has been a huge disappointment lately. Not sure what has gone wrong but she just doesn't look the same as last year when she won this. Take a look at the 9 Nedjma off her last, shuffled back behind a slow pace, was the only one to close (longshot front runners ran 1-3).

R8 Think the 5-9-11 have this group over a barrel. Based on the pace scenario not being all that quick I'm only going to use the 9-11 in the pick 4.

R9 Impossibly deep group, as usual for this event. Think the 1a has a real pace advantage and may be able to steal it but also like several others in here. The M/L favorite Banrock is an awfully nice horse but 2-1 isn't fair value in a field this tough.

R10 Several ways to look at this but trip handicapping seems critical with this bunch- who has had the best trips lately and who has had the worst of it? Stunt Man has really had some rough ones and might be able to jump up, Dr DFC has been sent super wide twice in a row, while Lorccan and Tommasi have enjoyed dream runs in their last few. Given that, I'm going to use the 2 & 11 with the value expected there. Also think the 12 is very usable finally getting away from the excellent 3YO NYB Champion Tin Cup Chalice.

Speed is REALLY good today at Belmont. NOBODY is closing. I may have to reconsider the last leg of my pick 4...

I think Stormy SMile believes that as well........75-1!!!

Since it's Lezcano maybe they'll pull the imaginary DQ again....

Bombs Away on that pick 6!! Holy crap! :eek:

hooves picks had 5 right on top!!!1

Glad you made money on such a great play....

Bel. P4 1,3,7/3,4,5,11/ 5,11/ 4,7,11 $72 GL to all playing.

KEE Late Pick 3
1,2,5,6,8 / 3,10 / 11 - $45.30 for $1

Sheppard sweeps the late double. Too bad I caught chalks in the first two legs and was too cheap to play the pick four (had Always First as a 'C').

Really?