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10/3 (KEE): First Lady & Alcibiades (Gr. I's)
8th (4:40) First Lady S. (G1)
1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $400,000 1 Precious Kitten Bejarano R 123 L 2 Dreaming of Anna Douglas R R 123 LA 3 Rutherienne Gomez G K 123 L 4 Roshani Velazquez J R 123 LA 5 Bayou's Lassie Albarado R J 123 LA 6 Forever Together Leparoux J R 123 L 7 Rosinka (IRE) Rose J 123 L 8 Stormy West Desormeaux K J 123 LA 9th (5:10) Darley Alcibiades S. (G1) 1 1/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $500,000 1 Be Smart Gomez G K 118 L 2 Devotee Coa E M 118 L 3 Bon Jovi Girl Caraballo J C 118 LA 4 August Rush Garcia J A 118 Blk-Off L 5 Mani Bhavan Garcia Alan 118 LA 6 Dream Empress Albarado R J 118 LA 7 Amanwella Rose J 118 LA |
I like Bon Jovi Girl in this spot with lots of speed for her to run at.
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Call me crazy... but I have no idea how any of these 2 yo's will run on this surface.
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That being said, I don't see any world beaters in here, and it's entirely possible that she can stalk if needed, and stretch out as well. The group she beat in the Adriondak (Bold Union, Doremifasolatedo, etc..) was probably better than what she beat in the Spinaway. |
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The first thing that you notice in this edition of the Acibiades is the lack of turf routers. Evident that a top 5(maybe top 10) 2yo filly turf router could earn a placing here, probably much easier and more prestigious than alternative turf stakes placing.
Devotee should really benefit from having quicker opposing speed. Coa will be forced to rate just a bit off the leaders. Probably see her handle the poly and distance. Dream Empress is kind of a 7f turf filly with moderate ability, but she can pick up some pieces here with a steady finish. Then there is Bon Jovi Girl who looks cheap but could suck-up for a piece with a conservative ride. The rest are sprinters. |
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I think you would pretty much have to go by a good animal who has good turf breeding, and trust the trainer's judgement that he has a pretty good turf routing filly on his hands... Taking a peek at the Miss Grillo, there aren't even that many great turf pedigrees in there. Maybe turf isn't what's hot, or maybe the few classy ones aren't being unveiled at 2? I am really driving at a turf horse who may not be quite good enough to win(or even place?) the Miss Grillo, but could boost her resume and earnings with a placing in Acibiades. Maram looks like she could be a good candidate, after looking over the Grillo PPs, but take it easy if she wins the Grillo;) |
My Bad
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:( - unfortunately although i think i may have picked the Alcibiades, the Grillo, AND did some arm-chair owner/trainer moves as well:rolleyes: - I lost $24 on Amanwella |
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While you're point of looking for turf runners on Keeneland's polytrack was certainly valid (though not particularly a revelation), you were way off base with your analysis. Firstly, there wasn't a "lack of turf fillies". 2 of the 7 runners started on turf. Secondly, you said Dream Empress was a useful "sprint" turf filly, even though her maiden win was in a route. Thirdly, you considered her of modest ability, even though she had the highest Beyer figure in the field for a two turn race. Not to mention she was favored in both prior starts and was 3rd choice on the morning line and actual betting favorite until a couple of minutes before post time. |
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