Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   The Paddock (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   10/3 (KEE): First Lady & Alcibiades (Gr. I's) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=25356)

Kasept 09-30-2008 09:34 PM

10/3 (KEE): First Lady & Alcibiades (Gr. I's)
 
8th (4:40) First Lady S. (G1)

1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $400,000

1 Precious Kitten Bejarano R 123 L
2 Dreaming of Anna Douglas R R 123 LA
3 Rutherienne Gomez G K 123 L
4 Roshani Velazquez J R 123 LA
5 Bayou's Lassie Albarado R J 123 LA
6 Forever Together Leparoux J R 123 L
7 Rosinka (IRE) Rose J 123 L
8 Stormy West Desormeaux K J 123 LA



9th (5:10) Darley Alcibiades S. (G1)

1 1/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 Be Smart Gomez G K 118 L
2 Devotee Coa E M 118 L
3 Bon Jovi Girl Caraballo J C 118 LA
4 August Rush Garcia J A 118 Blk-Off L
5 Mani Bhavan Garcia Alan 118 LA
6 Dream Empress Albarado R J 118 LA
7 Amanwella Rose J 118 LA

Lava 09-30-2008 09:44 PM

I like Bon Jovi Girl in this spot with lots of speed for her to run at.

hrfan 10-01-2008 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lava
I like Bon Jovi Girl in this spot with lots of speed for her to run at.

call me crazy, but i was thinking Jeremy Rose would take the # 7 back a little and she could possibly get a dream run on all the speed.

zippyneedsawin 10-01-2008 05:42 AM

Call me crazy... but I have no idea how any of these 2 yo's will run on this surface.

hrfan 10-01-2008 05:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin
Call me crazy... but I have no idea how any of these 2 yo's will run on this surface.

i dont like the favorite at all, that beyer decline is scary, as well as the race being packed with early speed, and me thinking she wants no part of the stretch out, the FU PEG filly was the only thing i could really come up with, and feel like im going to get a clean trip and possibly make one good run

zippyneedsawin 10-01-2008 06:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hrfan
i dont like the favorite at all, that beyer decline is scary, as well as the race being packed with early speed, and me thinking she wants no part of the stretch out, the FU PEG filly was the only thing i could really come up with, and feel like im going to get a clean trip and possibly make one good run

Certainly worth taking a shot against the favorite under these conditions. good luck.

lemoncrush 10-01-2008 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hrfan
i dont like the favorite at all, that beyer decline is scary, as well as the race being packed with early speed, and me thinking she wants no part of the stretch out, the FU PEG filly was the only thing i could really come up with, and feel like im going to get a clean trip and possibly make one good run

Because its Keenland and the great unknown about how these 2-yo fillies will handle the surface, is probably reason enough to try to beat Mani Bhavan.
That being said, I don't see any world beaters in here, and it's entirely possible that she can stalk if needed, and stretch out as well.
The group she beat in the Adriondak (Bold Union, Doremifasolatedo, etc..) was probably better than what she beat in the Spinaway.

ateamstupid 10-01-2008 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin
Call me crazy... but I have no idea how any of these 2 yo's will run on this surface.

You're not crazy. You seem to be one of the few who prefers racing to roulette.

Bobby Fischer 10-01-2008 10:07 AM

The first thing that you notice in this edition of the Acibiades is the lack of turf routers. Evident that a top 5(maybe top 10) 2yo filly turf router could earn a placing here, probably much easier and more prestigious than alternative turf stakes placing.

Devotee should really benefit from having quicker opposing speed. Coa will be forced to rate just a bit off the leaders. Probably see her handle the poly and distance.

Dream Empress is kind of a 7f turf filly with moderate ability, but she can pick up some pieces here with a steady finish.


Then there is Bon Jovi Girl who looks cheap but could suck-up for a piece with a conservative ride.

The rest are sprinters.

SniperSB23 10-01-2008 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
The first thing that you notice in this edition of the Acibiades is the lack of turf routers. Evident that a top 5(maybe top 10) 2yo filly turf router could earn a placing here, probably much easier and more prestigious than alternative turf stakes placing.

Devotee should really benefit from having quicker opposing speed. Coa will be forced to rate just a bit off the leaders. Probably see her handle the poly and distance.

Dream Empress is kind of a 7f turf filly with moderate ability, but she can pick up some pieces here with a steady finish.


Then there is Bon Jovi Girl who looks cheap but could suck-up for a piece with a conservative ride.

The rest are sprinters.

They are all in the Miss Grillo trying to get a spot in the BC Juvy Fillies Turf.

RolloTomasi 10-01-2008 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I'm not trying to be a di.ck and I get what you are saying, but at this point, does anyone even know who the top 5 or 10 2 year old filly turf routers are?

It all depends. When you looked at the field for the Alcibiades, a main track Grade 1, was the first thing you noticed a lack of turf runners?

Bobby Fischer 10-01-2008 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I'm not trying to be a di.ck and I get what you are saying, but at this point, does anyone even know who the top 5 or 10 2 year old filly turf routers are?

fair question.
I think you would pretty much have to go by a good animal who has good turf breeding, and trust the trainer's judgement that he has a pretty good turf routing filly on his hands...

Taking a peek at the Miss Grillo, there aren't even that many great turf pedigrees in there. Maybe turf isn't what's hot, or maybe the few classy ones aren't being unveiled at 2?


I am really driving at a turf horse who may not be quite good enough to win(or even place?) the Miss Grillo, but could boost her resume and earnings with a placing in Acibiades.
Maram looks like she could be a good candidate, after looking over the Grillo PPs, but take it easy if she wins the Grillo;)

Bobby Fischer 10-01-2008 03:20 PM

My Bad

hrfan 10-02-2008 01:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
No. But I also didn't look at the Alcibiades on the poly and notice a lack of turf runners.

i looked at it and like a lot of times am disapointed that this is a grade 1

RolloTomasi 10-03-2008 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
No. But I also didn't look at the Alcibiades on the poly and notice a lack of turf runners.

That was classic. After all that "first glance lack of 2yo turf runners" stuff from BF, sure enough the runaway winner of the race was a filly coming off the turf (with a big Beyer for the field) that went off 2nd favorite.

Bobby Fischer 10-03-2008 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
After all that "first glance lack of 2yo turf runners" stuff from BF, sure enough the runaway winner of the race was a filly coming off the turf (with a big Beyer for the field) that went off 2nd favorite.

told u so lol.

:( - unfortunately although i think i may have picked the Alcibiades, the Grillo,
AND did some arm-chair owner/trainer moves as well:rolleyes:

- I lost $24 on Amanwella

RolloTomasi 10-03-2008 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
told u so lol.

I hope you're joking.

While you're point of looking for turf runners on Keeneland's polytrack was certainly valid (though not particularly a revelation), you were way off base with your analysis.

Firstly, there wasn't a "lack of turf fillies". 2 of the 7 runners started on turf. Secondly, you said Dream Empress was a useful "sprint" turf filly, even though her maiden win was in a route. Thirdly, you considered her of modest ability, even though she had the highest Beyer figure in the field for a two turn race. Not to mention she was favored in both prior starts and was 3rd choice on the morning line and actual betting favorite until a couple of minutes before post time.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:41 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.