Derby Trail Forums - 9/25: Belmont Selections ($186k C/O)

Even with the extra days to cap, Wednesday's carryover skien at Belmont proved impossible. Frankel's front-running Ground Frost ($14.40) in the opener started the parade of double digit winners which saw tough-to-like Vladimira ($33.40) win the fifth from Rodrigo Ubilio. I happened to love Quasicobra ($27.00) in the 6th, scoring on a win bet, but many undoubtedly left the back-in-form Romans' runner off their sextet ducat. Gold Record ($23.60), Stan Hough's first of two in the late P4, sealed the carryover deal in the 7th. (Of course the tone for the day was set from the get-go when Cleveland Johnson (!) won the opener..)

Thursday card looks safe from rain that is approaching New York, (and which may put a damper on the JCGC card which draws today), but the sequence is just as treacherous as yesterday's...

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Approaching this with experienced starters as the main plays and 'interesting firster' considerations below..

Most Likely: #1 Concorde's Dance 9-2: Hough again; Turns back.. 5th
Best Value: #6 Sally's Song 8-1: Pletch bay's debut better than it looks.. 7th
Next Best: #8 Just Livin a Dream 4-1: Improved in 2nd start; Sib of Gr. I winner.. 2nd
Super Add: #10 Eleni's Hope 50-1: Strange line; Sister of Sabellina.. 10th

Notable 1sters:
#7 Gold d'Oro 8-1 (Adriano's 1/2 sister) 3rd
#9 Habaya 8-1 (1st foal from the wondferful champion turf mare Golden Apples) WON
#11 Driven Snow 6-1 (daughter of the excellent Wandesta) 6th

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2b (POE) Fiona Freud 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1e O'Brien entry 7-2 4th
Best Value: #5 My Anna Rose 6-1 2nd

6th: CLM/C, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Dangerous race.. They all look deformed..

Most Likely: #2 Clemens 3-1 WON
Best Value: #8 Arrrrr 6-1
Next Best: #7 Ready in the Morn 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Secret Stocks 12-1

7th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

The question here is what do you do with Bond's ML fave Ruffino (#5), who has been away 15 months? Note incredibly spotty worktab.. Your call..

Most Likely: #8 Alexandros 8-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Benlayla 12-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Tergesti 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Brookhaven's Money 12-1 6th

8th: OC-N3X, F&M-3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Lucky Revival 5-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Grace Happens 12-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Boca Grande 2-1 WON

9th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 1m-T (Super)

Best Value: #10 Ain't No Star 12-1 11th
Most Likely: #4 Royal Tapit 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Ten Ten Ten 6-1 12th
Super Add: #12 Summit Creek 12-1 10th

.10 Super Play: 4-7-10 over 4-7-10 over 1-4-5-7-10-11-12 over 1-4-5-7-10-11-12 (3x2x5x4 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-6-8-9
5: 1-2
6: 2-7-8
7: 8
8: 1-6
9: 4-10

4x2x3x1x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-7-8-9
7: 1-4-8
8: 1-6
9: 4-7-10

4x3x2x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve