Derby Trail Forums - 8/2: Saratoga (Day 10); 60-P6

Excluded two plausible horses from early and late P4's respectively Friday which cost $3,000 ($2,300/$787). Pat Kelly's Weekwee (8-1), who was hustled to the event by the racing office to get a full field of 8, broke her maiden in the last stride collaring the 3-2 single Afleet Aya. Luck Money was a classic first lasix Euro 'Mystery Horse' from Pletcher that won the Majestic Light at 5-2 over Prussian. The best play on the day came especially in the 6th where on top 'Best Value' tab Final Refrain paid $19.00 and keyed the $32.00 exacta (Jibboom) and $101.50 tri (Queen Joanne). Hope you did well!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N3L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Fun way to start the day..

Most Likely: #3 Mogul Man 3-1
Best Value: #6 Riz Sauvage 30-1
Next Best: #7 Cinder Cone 10-1
Super Add: #2 Hall of Famer 9-2

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Nowhere to Hide 4-1
Best Value: #3 Keeping the Honor 15-1
Next Best: #4 Viscount 8-1

3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 I'm So Lucky 8-5
Best Value: #3 Sale Pending 8-1
Next Best: #7 On Board Again 2-1

4th: The Flanders, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Lovely Isle 5-2
Best Value: #3 SCR
Next Best: #7 Irish Smoke 9-2
Super Add: #6 More Happy 3-1

5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 BIGGERBADDERBETTER 8-1
Most Likely: #8 True Dancer 3-1
Next Best: #2 Perfect Bullet 6-1
Super Add: #4 Blazing Dynamo 5-1

@$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-6
3: 3-6-7
4: 5-6-7
5: 3-8

3x3x3x2 = $54

60 MINUTE P6

A) SAR 6th (3:37): NYB-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Murderously tough start to the 60-6.. Few are without chance here.. Watch board for clues, but doubt even that helps here.. Toner's firster (#8 Bullstar) is the curious ML favorite who you can include in the multis as a cover, but is hard to embrace strongly as win candidate against several more experienced runners..

Most Likely: #1 SCR
Best Value: #6 Stoliatsiros 12-1
Next Best: #9 Can't Buy Love 5-1
Super Add: #5 Pano's Love 6-1

B) MTH 7th (3:50): NJ-bred MSW, 3+, 1m-70y (P4, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Twisted Heart 4-1
Best Value: #9 Hav'n a Fog Attack 20-1
Next Best: #3 Refuge 4-1
Super Add: #8 Heartbreakin Love 7-2

C) DEL 8th (3:56): 3+, 5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 SCR
Most Likely: #7 SCR
Next Best: #6 X Rated Cat

D) PHA 9th (4:02): OC/N3X, 3+, 6f

ML fave #7 Mobo is a BIG play against as a regression candidate..

Most Likely: #2 Spirit of Gulch 3-1
Next Best: #3 Night Stand 5-1
Best Value: #1e Vaders entry 6-1 (#1 Talkisfree ONLY)

E) SAR 7th (4:09): ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 COMPROMISE 8-5
Best Value: #2 Quasicobra 12-1
Next Best: #7 Shive's Success 8-1

F) MTH 8th (4:20): The Colleen, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3)

Most Likely: #1 Fools in Love 3-1
Next Best: #4 Love That Dance 3-1
Best Value #8 During Deputy 8-1

<$200 60-6 Play:

A: 5-6-7-8-9-11
B: 3-4-8-9
C: 2-6
D: 2-3
E: 5
F: 1-4

6x4x2x2x1x2 = $192

8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5fT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Heather's Angel 2-1
Best Value: #6 Zip by You 6-1
Next Best: #4 Catty Madeline 5-1
Super Add: #9 Mercy's Delight 30-1

.10 SUPER PLAY: Key 10 over 1-4-6-9-11-12 (1x6x5x4 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)

9th: ALW/N2L, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 National Pride 2-1
Best Value: #7 The Darp 6-1
Next Best: #3 West Express 4-1
Super Add: #1 Super Shape 15-1

10th: 93rd Test (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Indian Blessing 3-5
Best Value: #1 Tequilas Dayjur 15-1
Next Best: #2 Palanka City 8-1

11th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (Super)

What a way to close out the day. Absolutely nuts finale.. The "Sore Horse Derby".. Check back to see if scratches impact selections with 4 on the AE list..

Most Likely: #7 More Than Coolin 7-2
Best Value: #2 Felinefelon 8-1
Next Best: #10 Artytheonemanparty 15-1
Super Add: #5 SCR

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 10 (1-4-6-9)
9: 4
10: (1) 2-6
11: 2-3-7-10

CORE: 1x1x3x5 = 15 x $2 = $30
BACKUP: 4x1x1x5 = $20
TOTAL: $55

<$50 BACKUP P3 (9-10-11):

9: 1-3-7
10: 1-2-6
11: 2-3-7-10

3x3x4 = $36

Good luck!
Steve