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-   -   7/24: Saratoga (Day 2) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24133)

Kasept 07-24-2008 02:58 AM

7/24: Saratoga (Day 2)
 
Opener a washout as unrelenting rain pelted the Spa off and on all day long. Had no chance to adjust selections to reflect changes, so work for Day 1 a bit of a waste though early P4 ($120.00) was still laying there if played blindly. Racing Office's decision to devote half of the first card of the meet to turf a costly one too as 28 horses defected from the 5 estwhile lawn events. Thursday likely to see more rain early before the forecast brightens tremendously for the twilight Friday racing and the big first weekend. Don't expect any grass races, save for the featured Lake Placid Friday, until Saturday.

Thursday's Steeplechase opener has been cancelled, but racing will start at 1:35pm with the 2nd as originally carded to accomodate broader simulcast schedules...


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


2nd: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Red Seven 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Stunning Electra 9-2 WON
Next Best: #1 Not a Peep 3-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Imthequeenofqueens 10-1 4th


3rd: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Goretty 5-2 7th
Best Value: #8 Climb to the Stars 20-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Aunt Marge 7-2 6th
Super Add: #4 Hanna Banana 12-1 8th


4th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-OTT (P3, DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #13 Scott's Choice 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #1A (POE) Vladimira 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 SCR
Super Add: #3 Shirley Law 20-1 6th


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Interesting group of baby gals featuring debut of Phipps' Siren Serenade (#4), the next daughter of Versailles Treaty (dam of Saarland) by Unbridled's Song, and several others with strong marks for win early/wet going success.. Top pair (#'s 1e-8) stand out to me, but watch board for clues on other trifecta supporting cast members..

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Market at Midday 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Mine All Mine 7-2 WON
Best Value: #3 SCR


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-5-10
3: 6-8
4: 1-3-13
5: 1-8

4x2x3x1 = $24


6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OTT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Tempest Storm 6-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Easy Ashley 8-1 2nd


7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Super fun mix of top level ALW/STK types.. If Trombetta keeps Street Magician in off the injury break, it telegraphs 'ready' for return..

Most Likely: #6 Temecula Creek 8-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Visionaire 6-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Street Magician 6-1 4th


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OTT (P3, DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #1A-MTO (POE) Loving Vindication 5-2 WON
Best Value: #9 Aidan 20-1 6th
Next Best: #2B-MTO (POE) Freakstein 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Quiet Meadow 20-1 7th


9th: 94th Sanford (Gr. II), 2yo, 6f (DD)

#4 Notonthesamepage, who would have been a single in multis, has scratched due to a fever..

Most Likely: #3 Desert Party 3-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Officer Ipod 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Phosphorescent 10-1 4th


10th: CLM, 3+, 9f (

Most Likely: #4 SCR
Best Value: #2 King Mobay 10-1 WON
Next Best: #5 SCR
Super Add: #3 SCR


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-6
8: 1-2-7-9
9: 1-2-3
10: 2-4

3x4x2x1 = $24

$1 P4 Paid $236.75


Good luck!
Steve

TheSpyder 07-24-2008 06:52 AM

I see you're back on your Saratoga schedule..3:58 am.

Pace yourself Steve...long way to go!

Spyder

philcski 07-24-2008 07:53 AM

I LOVE Street Magician at the ML. Working like he's back to his old self, which is better than these.

Kasept 07-24-2008 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
I LOVE Street Magician at the ML. Working like he's back to his old self, which is better than these.

Saw Trombetta. An hour ago. He's comfortable with running Magician on the surface but said owner-breeder Larry Johnson, due here soon, will decide. Said Street Magician is indeed back to where he was. Also said Eternal Star will be his Forego starter

CSC 07-24-2008 08:22 AM

That's great info about Street Magican, haven't heard that name in awhile. I remember betting him at GP last yr and thinking highly of him.

philcski 07-24-2008 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Saw Trombetta. An hour ago. He's comfortable with running Magician on the surface but said owner-breeder Larry Johnson, due here soon, will decide. Said Street Magician is indeed back to where he was. Also said Eternal Star will be his Forego starter

Honestly, I hate hearing that. Isn't it the job of the trainer to make these calls? I know I wouldn't go to Chuck and say "I don't think we should run today" if he's already declared a horse ready to go.

zippyneedsawin 07-24-2008 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Saw Trombetta. An hour ago. He's comfortable with running Magician on the surface but said owner-breeder Larry Johnson, due here soon, will decide. Said Street Magician is indeed back to where he was. Also said Eternal Star will be his Forego starter


Thanks for the info, Steve! How's it looking there today so far --weather-wise?

Bigsmc 07-24-2008 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Honestly, I hate hearing that. Isn't it the job of the trainer to make these calls? I know I wouldn't go to Chuck and say "I don't think we should run today" if he's already declared a horse ready to go.

Agree 100%. You hire a trainer for several reasons and deciding whether to run or not on a wet surface would be one of those reasons for me.

Benny Leger 07-24-2008 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc
Agree 100%. You hire a trainer for several reasons and deciding whether to run or not on a wet surface would be one of those reasons for me.


and besides that...I could see Big ole' Chuck puttin' a knot on my head if I tried to tell him his "biness" !!!

Coach Pants 07-24-2008 10:38 AM

Sheesh

SCRATCHES
Race 3
2 My Luckey Penney
Early


Race 4
1 (poe) Spa Princess
Early

4 Fair Game
Early

5 Western Decision
Early

6 Sachia
Early

7 My Time of Day
Early

8 Better Than Swiss
Early

Race 5
3 Selective
Early

Race 6
1 (poe) Happens in Vegas
Early

2B Odetta One
Early

3 Smartgabrielle
Early

4 Frozen Prospect
Early

5 Spin Move
Early

7 Flibberjibit
Early
Race 7
4 Callmetony
Early

7 Roi Maudit
Early

9 Loose Leaf
Early

Race 8
1 (poe) Gentle Gale
Early

2 (poe) Choosing (IRE)
Early

3 Follow My Dream
Early

4 Moroccan Affair
Early

8 Viva La View
Early

11 Locata
Early

12 Higher Incentive
Early

13 Karakorum Elektra
Early

Race 9
4 Notonthesamepage
Early

5 Bullion Cache
Early

Race 10
1 Solid Strike
Early

1A Debating
Early

3 River Mountain Rd
Early

10 Bad Boy Rising
Early




JOCKEY CHANGES

Race
Program #
Horse
Changes
4 1A Vladimira Aldo Arboleda

11 Depose the Cat Rajiv Maragh

8 1A Loving Vindication J. Velazquez

2B Freakstein Kent Desormeaux


philcski 07-24-2008 11:21 AM

Dagnabit also out of the Sanford.


DAGNABIT all these d*mn scratches!

SniperSB23 07-24-2008 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Dagnabit also out of the Sanford.


DAGNABIT all these d*mn scratches!

Dagnabit it is pouring again. That's it, I'll just stick out the day at work and skip a day at the track.

Kasept 07-24-2008 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin
Thanks for the info, Steve! How's it looking there today so far --weather-wise?

Utterly horrific. Beyond belief actually.

Kasept 07-24-2008 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSpyder
I see you're back on your Saratoga schedule..3:58 am.

Pace yourself Steve...long way to go!

Spyder

Selections posted at 4 but was up 2 hours before that. Not sleeping so well....

hockey2315 07-24-2008 12:15 PM

Race 2 - They're really sending it in on this 7.

hoovesupsideyourhead 07-24-2008 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Selections posted at 4 but was up 2 hours before that. Not sleeping so well....

4hrs max for 36 days srt:cool:

XIIPointStables 07-24-2008 12:17 PM

Geez, the 7 taking a TON of money right now. 3-1 off of the 10-1 ML.

hoovesupsideyourhead 07-24-2008 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
Race 2 - They're really sending it in on this 7.

t a never has a first out winner in dirt sprint at toga..

Kasept 07-24-2008 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Honestly, I hate hearing that. Isn't it the job of the trainer to make these calls? I know I wouldn't go to Chuck and say "I don't think we should run today" if he's already declared a horse ready to go.

Trainers that are successful long term adjust their personalities to co-exist with clients they think are worth adjusting for.. Mike and Johnson get along well and have had a lot of success together. Johnson certainly doesn't make calls without Mike's input.

hockey2315 07-24-2008 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
t a never has a first out winner in dirt sprint at toga..

Exactly (though he's good with FTS in general). . . and the horse has slow works - so why is she the 4-1 second choice? I doubt it's the big 412 tomlinson. . . Being outside should also be a plus. . .


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