CD R9: I just don't get this move
 

Kiaran is one of the sharpest trainers out there but I just don't get why he's running Genuine Devotion 8F at CD. It's doubtful that she's much more than a 6F turfer (and a good one at that), though her last race wasn't as impressive as I would want. How exactly does she navigate 8F tomorrow? Does she outsprint the one dimensional Bayou's Lassie? I imagine she's faster. Are we counting on a speed bias down there?

Interesting move.

Guess he didn't learn from Penna's mistake with English Colony.

Would've loved to have seen her against First Defence a few weeks ago.

the breeding is proven to 1 and 1/16th..

This is one of my favorite horses so I'd love to see her be equally as good routing as she is sprinting. But, having seen her run, I don't believe she can carry it beyond 6 or 7F.

We'll see today.

How would you like that crow cooked sir?

Doesn't bother me none. I've made some serious money with this filly and didn't really have an(other) opinion and thus passed the race.

Of course, it'd be nice to look into whether that speed bias on the turf is still going strong down there.

I am still trying to understand how you look at a ROG offspring as capable of turf "sprint" only??

It's not all about breeding. In fact, it's NEVER about breeding for me and ALL about trips.

Typically, unless we're dealing with bush type tracks (or speed favoring tracks) turf horses don't stretch out as easily as they cut back. It's a matter of footwork, as trying 2 turns for the 1st time presents problems for them.

Who's the sire of English Colony? That would be ROG. How'd he do 1st time trying a mile?

TRIPS are superordinate to BREEDING and TRAINER angles. Fact of the matter.

I hate to add to Fat Man's argument, especially when my point's about something so insignificant and worthless as pedigree, but Genuine Devotion had by far the lowest tomlinson rating in the field for a mile on turf (but the highest general turf number by far).

So TFM,
If you were spotting this horse next out, would you cut back to a 1 turn turf sprint or stick with the mile?

Yeah, the Tomlinsons on Rock's offspring are gigantic. The turf sprint that went West of Gibraltar-Diamondrella in late May, I think around the 23rd or so, was ROG-ROG and they each were around 450 in terms of Tomlinson #.

NT

No one variable is infallible which is why you have to be aware of more than the history of a horses "trips". Trip handicapping gets you into trouble as much as any other "superordinate" variable. Which is why you blame the jock when a horse doesn't win that you are sure is "much the best". The random element of trips has the same pit falls as pedigree only or TA only handicapping. Success is about a formula, made from all, that works not a magic ingredient.

I could be mistaken but i think he won his first time going a mile.

English Colony?

He ran at a mile once....in the Kelso. He did not win.

No I think he meant Rock of Gibraltar.

The poster asked who was the sire of English Colony and then asked how did he do his first crack at a mile. Unless im mistaken, Rock of Gibraltar won his first crack at a mile. Thats what i meant.

I can see why his sentence was confusing but I would guess he meant English Colony.

gotcha. in that case i stand corrected.

Okay, read it again. Now i understand what he is saying. thanks.

why is this turning into a (psuedo)pedigree discussion?

In point of fact, I blame the jock when he blows the race BECAUSE I have a high level understanding of intuitive pace and race setups. A GENERALIST might not be able to fully understand this.

There are random or, better, uncontrollable, components in trips, I agree. However, someone skilled at it can explain in terms of trips why a horse didn't run well. In these cases, I don't blame the jockey.

Since the game is about THE RACE, I figure that going directly to the source is the best way to approach it. Others, the majority, seem to think that the best method is through abstractions; numeric or otherwise.

NEGATIVE.

EC is a horse that was rated nicely going 6F. He won on the lead going 7F --once. What made him unique was that he was fast enough to stay close to the fastest sprinter YET able to hold off the late runners. His footwork sprinting is IMPECCABLE. The only time he tried a mile a BEL, which is a quasi turn, he's on the wrong lead on the backstretch and RANK.

Im sorry fat man. BTW pointed out my error. I misread your earlier post and took it to mean that you were referring to Rock of Gibraltar.