Belmont Day Thoughts
 

R3 - 3,5, and 6 interest me

R4 - Vitruvius - 1/2 to Corinthian, ran big at a mile before, looks ready for a top effort

R6 - Benny looks pretty solid - Council Member underneath

R7 - Lady of Venice is legit but I also really like Bit of Whimsy - last was a little disappointing (she got crushed in the early betting that day which I found interesting) and she looks to be training really well. . . maybe she'll get ignored on the board

R8 - Love Zaftig (Indian Blessing = Dream Rush)

R9 - Don't like Ready's Image - using 3,4,5,6,8 in PK4

R10 - Spread - playing against Better Talk Now, the KMc horses (reluctantly), and not using the 2 - Playing Strike a Deal to win

R11 - Very much against Casino Drive - using BB and DofC in PK4 and playing tris 1 w/ 4 w/ 3,6,8,9,10

Yeah, I was shocked at the play that BofW got at Kee. I think alot of that was because she ran so well on that course previously, which really is a good angle on the Kee turf. (i.e. Sgt. Bert). I palyed Precious Kitten in that race and maybe Im biased but it seemed if though Javy was more interested in roughing up PK than winning the race with his mount, very strange ride.

And if you dont like Readys Image, who I think is probaly the mostly likely winner, you need to watch LL Qi last race. Castanon shouldve been castorated for that ride. since you think it is a spread race.

I really dont know what Javy and his agent are thinking in getting off of the ddonk in favor of SaD.

Ling Ling Qi is too slow . . . Ready's Image's comeback was too dull for me to take a short price - he's got the lay-off excuse - but he was working pretty well for that race so I'm inclined to think that he was just a very precocious two year old who hasn't improved at three like his adversaries have.

You very well be right that LLQ is too slow. I just think he will sit a very good trip,and has one of the hottest trainers in the country shipping in for this. I think unlike alot of others that the 7f distance if perfect for him.

How the 5 does in the 3rd will determine how much money I have to play with the rest of the day.

Distance covered late time out in relation to the winner, Rutherienne:

1) Bit of Whimsey +46

2) Lady of Venice +37

3) Precious Kitten +64

No headon for the race, unfortunately

You may be able to go to keeneland.com and find it. i remember watching it after the race, it was brutal how wide javy caused P kitten to be going to into the first turn.
obviously, rutherianne was not the best that day.

NO more replays on the KEE site. There's a link to RaceReplays that doesn't work.

Off memory, I believe that it was more BoW not handling the course well, than anything else.

I can't make sense of why Castellano gets off P2D for SaD. (And anyone who like P2D needs to think a bit longer with Prado up, the way he's riding.) There's absolutely NO WAY SaD gets 1 1/4M against these horses. It's not that he isn't game, which he very much is, but he ALWAYS gets a bad trip because of his running style, which always has him in the mix the entire race. He got butchered last out, for example. There's always some suckup that runs a lot less and gets him late. And there are many late runners in this race.

When you are wasting your time worrying about why riders are on what horses you should consider the possibility that sometimes riders commit to a horse when another isn't necessarily going.

Strike A Deal looks like serious win candidate. He ran great as a 3 year old and his race on the yielding turf 4 weeks ago was OK. Any improvement in this race could be enough to get the job done. Proudinsky matched up well with Daytona and might like the 1 1/4 distance.

How does that apply in this case?

You of all people must certainly be aware of how POORLY Prado is riding lately.